As of: February 1, 2024, 9:05 p.m
By: Florian Naumann
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The current “Germany trend” provides a small turnaround – but also a slap in the face for the traffic lights.
At the AfD the mood seems contradictory.
Berlin – For a long time there seemed to be little slowing down the AfD's rise in the polls.
But now the right-wing populists are losing ground in another federal election survey.
There is a whopping three percentage point minus in
ARD
’s current “Germany trend” – compared, however, not to the previous week, but to the previous month.
What's more: At least two of the three parties in the traffic light coalition can gain in the survey published on Thursday (February 1st).
Bundestag election survey: AfD loses, SPD and Greens gain – despite traffic light frustration
This trend is not entirely new in Germany – at least with regard to the AfD.
On Tuesday (January 30th), the
RTL/n-tv
“Trend Barometer” from the Forsa Institute saw the AfD below the 20 percent mark in the Sunday question for the first time since July.
Now there is confirmation from the polls from Infratest dimap.
However, in their monthly survey series, the upward trend of the SPD and the Greens is clearer and a bit stronger.
At the same time, the survey commissioned by
ARD
sees Sahra Wagenknecht's “BSW” on course to enter the Bundestag.
Right-wing extremist, on the decline – but not worth banning: The new “Germany trend” is also likely to puzzle the AfD.
© IMAGO/Emmanuele Contini
Among the traffic light parties, the SPD climbed to 16 percent (+2) and the Greens to 14 percent (+1).
The FDP loses one percentage point and would miss entry into the Bundestag with 4 percent.
The same applies to the left.
According to the survey, the newly founded Sahra Wagenknecht alliance, on the other hand, would have better cards with 5 percent - that seems to be at the expense of the AfD, Left, FDP or even the Union.
Hubert Aiwanger's Free Voters were not explicitly shown in the data and fell under “Other”.
In January, the institute measured 3 percent for the party.
However, the value of other items only increased by one percentage point.
Political party |
Germany trend |
previous month |
Result BTW |
|---|---|---|---|
CDU/CSU |
30 |
31 |
24.1 |
AfD |
19 |
22 |
10.3 |
SPD |
16 |
14 |
25.7 |
Greens |
14 |
13 |
14.8 |
BSW |
5 |
- |
- |
FDP |
4 |
5 |
11.5 |
left |
4 |
5 |
4.9 |
Other |
9 |
8th |
8.7 |
Numbers in percent. / Source: Infratest dimap. Survey of 1,303 eligible voters between January 29 and 31, 2024.
The Union also loses a percentage point in the “Germany trend” and falls to 30 percent.
However, the CDU and CSU remain the strongest force.
In addition, if there were a federal election on Sunday, they would have the best chance of taking a leading role in the government.
According to these data, the SPD and the Greens would be far from being able to form a coalition at 30 percent.
There would only be majorities with the Union or AfD.
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In addition, the respondents to the traffic light coalition missed another explicit low blow, despite the upward trend for the SPD and the Greens.
An unchanged 17 percent of those eligible to vote are currently satisfied with their work.
A clear majority of 81 percent are less or not at all satisfied.
However, election surveys are generally snapshots and are subject to uncertainty - due, among other things, to weakening party loyalty and short-term voting decisions.
AfD paradox in survey?
66 percent consider the party to be right-wing extremist – the value is falling
Regardless, there were quite clear majorities on the question of a possible AfD ban.
Of the more than 1,300 respondents, more than half (51 percent) did not consider it appropriate to initiate ban proceedings.
37 percent consider a ban procedure to be appropriate.
66 percent of survey participants rated the AfD as “right-wing extremist” – 6 percentage points less than in September 2023.
This might come as a surprise: Since the
Correctiv
research center published a meeting between radical right-wingers and AfD officials, among others, protests and demonstrations against the right have increased.
Representatives of the CDU and CSU also used the rallies on Thursday to put pressure on a tougher asylum course.
Protests against AfD at the weekend – Many survey participants are worried about right-wing extremism
Anti-right-wing demonstrations have also been announced in many places this weekend.
In Berlin, a human chain of demonstrators is planned on Saturday around the Reichstag under the motto “We are the firewall”.
According to the organizers, more than 100,000 people are registered.
Over the past two weekends, hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated for democracy and against right-wing extremism in many German cities.
A good seven out of ten survey participants (72 percent) said they understood the protesters' concerns.
21 percent expressed no understanding.
At the same time, 39 percent of those surveyed named right-wing extremism and right-wing populism as the greatest threat to democracy in Germany.
“Wrong politics” or “distance from politics” followed in second place on this list at 18 percent.
5 percent of those surveyed named migration as the greatest danger.
(
fn with material from dpa
)