The global economy is better off now than it was a year ago as, as the World Bank highlights, the risk of a global recession has diminished, but rising geopolitical tensions could create new dangers in the short term.
Borrowing costs for developing economies, especially those with poor credit ratings, are likely to remain high as global interest rates remain at high levels, and this is not good for our country.
The World Bank estimates that this year 2024 China will grow more than the United States (4.5 versus 1.6%), it also estimates that India, the other large Asian country, will grow much more than the European Union (6.4 versus 0 .7%) This important economic growth of the large Asian nations must be taken into account by our foreign policy, aiming at increasing our exports.
The IMF has estimated that the 156 emerging economies have grown at a faster rate than the 40 traditionally advanced nations Emerging and developing nations in Asia continue to lead global economic growth
The estimates for this year are consistent with what has been happening in the world during globalization, which gained momentum starting in the '80s of the last century.
This is how emerging economies, which in 1980 represented 37% of world GDP, now represent 58%.
Of course, the differences between GDP per inhabitant, although they are decreasing year after year, are still considerable, since these emerging nations represent no less than 86% of the world's population.
The growing decline in the economic importance of the so-called G-7, made up of the large industrialized countries (United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Canada and Japan) stands out. These seven countries represented more than half of the GDP in 1980. world;
Currently they represent only around a third.
China's GDP has overtaken the United States as the world's largest GDP, being 22% larger.
In 1980 the economic world was different, since the GDP of the United States was almost 10 times greater than that of China.
Let us keep in mind that these two countries, which today lead the contribution to world GDP, currently represent 34% of this world GDP, when in 1980 they represented much less (24%).
China's GDP is likely to continue growing more than that of the United States in the coming years, thus widening its current favorable gap.
This is based on the fact that China's savings and investment levels are higher than those of the United States.
This influences international trade, an activity where it is possible that in the near future China will displace the United States as the world's leading importer.
Asia is consolidating its economic leadership, driven by the great growth of the Chinese economy.
The high levels of savings and investment in Asian countries explain these high rates of economic growth and the accelerated decline in poverty.
It is true that the total production of goods and services in China is already greater than that of the United States, but this nation still continues to maintain its military leadership, in addition to the scientific and technological leadership that is the basis of improvements in productivity.
Don't forget that of the best universities in the world, the majority are in the United States.
This is a great asset of this nation, which the IMF does not measure with figures.
The level of savings in proportion to GDP is more than double in China than in the United States.
That is why Chinese economic progress is faster than that of the United States, a logical consequence of an elementary and decisive fact, linked to the process of capital accumulation essentially financed by domestic savings.
Currently, the Chinese GDP is already higher than that of the United States, according to the projections presented by the IMF with annual growth rates expected for China to be higher than those of the United States; in the coming years this superiority will be consolidated.
The advance of the Asian economies, particularly China and India, where no less than a third of humanity lives, is strengthened every year.
The IMF expects China to grow more than the United States and expects India to continue growing more than the European Union This uneven advance in the production of goods and services is changing the world map of economic activities that is rotating from Europe and South America. North towards the Asia-Pacific, with China that year after year strengthens its productive leadership in the world.
The differences are notable, for example, China has been expanding its GDP annually for several decades at a rate that is double that of the United States, driven by high investments.
Chinese economic advance has been consolidating decade by decade since the '80s, when they buried the Maoist ideology. When Reagan was president of the United States, in 1980, the GDP of this country was almost 10 times greater than that of China;
This picture has changed drastically: when Biden ends his presidency at the end of this year, the Chinese economy will be, according to the IMF, 25% larger than that of the United States.
This is the century of Asia's economic primacy, this is a fact that should not be ignored by our country's foreign policy.
Alieto Aldo Guadagni was Secretary of Energy. He is a member of the University of Belgrano and the Di Tella Institute.