WASHINGTON - The war in Ukraine has "quietly corroded" the power of President
Vladimir Putin
of Russia, CIA Director
William J. Burns
wrote in an essay published Tuesday.
Although Putin's power is unlikely to weaken anytime soon, Burns wrote in
Foreign Affairs
, discontent has "gnawed away at the Russian leadership and the Russian people," allowing the CIA
to recruit more spies.
The agency has made a series of videos aimed at recruiting Russian officials.
The most recent, published last week, encourages the Russians to securely provide information to the CIA using a secure browser on the dark web.
The latest video appeals to his anger over corruption in the Russian government.
Screenshot of one of a series of videos from the United States Central Intelligence Agency aimed at recruiting Russian officials.
In an essay appearing in the journal Foreign Affairs published Tuesday, January 30, 2024, CIA Director William J. Burns says Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created recruiting opportunities for the spy agency and has ushered in a new era.
Fragment of writing at bottom translates to "..that we dreamed..."(Central Intelligence Agency/The New York Times)
Although the US government will not say how many spies have been recruited with the videos, officials said the agency would not have continued promoting them on
Telegram and YouTube
if they were not effective.
Burns echoed this sentiment in his article.
"That undercurrent of disaffection is creating a unique recruiting opportunity for the CIA," he wrote.
"We're not going to let it go to waste."
Part of Putin's weakness comes from his handling of last year's mutiny by members of Russia's most powerful mercenary group.
He seemed "distant and indecisive" in the face of the mutiny led by
Yevgeny Prigozhin , the leader of the
Wagner
mercenary group
, Burns wrote.
Burns wrote that Putin "finally settled his scores with Prigozhin," referring to the mercenary leader's death in a suspicious plane crash.
Despite this, the criticism of Russian leadership that Prigozhin laid before the Russian people "will not go away anytime soon," Burns wrote.
"For many in the Russian elite, the issue was not so much whether the emperor had no clothes as why it took him so long to dress," Burns said.
Russia has rebuilt its military industrial production, but its economy has been deeply wounded by the war, he said.
And in the long term, Russia is "sealing its fate" of being a vassal of China, dependent on Beijing for trade and technology.
Ukraine faces the challenges of war, but has achieved spectacular results.
Russia's efforts to modernize its military have been
"hollowed out
," and
315,000 Russians
have been killed or wounded, Burns wrote.
Ukraine has also suffered heavy casualties, although Burns did not directly address this.
U.S. officials have struggled to accurately estimate how many lives have been lost in Ukraine.
Putin's strategy is to continue hammering Ukraine and try to overcome Western support.
But Ukraine, Burns wrote, can "puncture Putin's arrogance" by launching
deeper attacks
behind the hardened battlefield front lines.
In the past, U.S. officials have worried that Ukraine attacks could provoke an escalation by Russia, possibly even conducting a nuclear test as a warning to Ukraine and the West.
Burns acknowledged that concerns about nuclear escalation were valid, but suggested they should not be exaggerated.
"Putin could rattled nuclear sabers again, and it would be absurd to completely rule out the risks of escalation," he wrote.
.
"But it would be equally foolish to allow yourself to be unnecessarily intimidated by them."
The key to Ukraine's success, Burns wrote, was to continue providing American aid.
Congress is considering a new military aid package but has become entangled with the politics of a border and immigration deal on Capitol Hill.
Cutting off aid to Ukraine, Burns wrote,
would be a big mistake.
Support
"Keeping the flow of arms will put Ukraine in a stronger position if the opportunity arises for serious negotiations," Burns said.
"It offers the opportunity to secure a long-term victory for Ukraine and a strategic loss for Russia; Ukraine could
safeguard its sovereignty and rebuild,
while Russia would have to face the lasting costs of Putin's folly."
The Russian invasion of Ukraine marked the beginning of a new era for the CIA, Burns wrote.
He spoke of the
early warning
of the invasion that intelligence agencies provided to the Biden administration, Ukraine and allies.
But the new era, Burns said, is also about taking advantage of new technologies, including artificial intelligence.
These have transformed the way the CIA collects information, allowing it
to analyze it more quickly and efficiently
.
"As much as the world is changing, espionage remains an interaction between humans and technology," he wrote.
Although there will be secrets that only humans can collect, Burns continued, the CIA must "combine mastery of emerging technologies with the interpersonal skills and individual daring that have always been at the heart of our profession."
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