Hamas is using the hostages in its hands not only to bring about an end to the war, but also to ensure the continuation of its rule in the Strip, to leverage its achievements and to regain points it lost among the public in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority, which is paying the price of the October 7 massacre.
Intense "Belt of Fire" attacks in Gaza // Arab Networks
The main price that Israel is required to pay for the first phase of the deal is the risk of ending the war without the overthrow of Hamas' rule, and with the release of terrorists who will significantly strengthen the organization's capabilities, precisely in the Yosh arena.
The declarations of the political echelon about its commitment to achieving all the goals of the war are important, but they are not enough.
Since Hamas assumes that the internal situation in Israel will affect the motivation to resume fighting, it is necessary to form ahead of time a broad Israeli agreement to return and fight at the end of the ceasefire.
Washington's support during the process is also important, although it is not certain that it will be possible to obtain it at an affordable price.
The Gaza Strip, after the Air Force bombings, photo: Getty Images
As part of the deal that is taking shape, it is necessary to strive to ensure that terrorists who are released from prisons in Israel do not return to the territories of the Palestinian Authority. The security system must formulate a plan to offset the expected increase in risk - if this does not help. All this, to enable the existence of the deal, but under conditions that will significantly reduce the risks from it .
To curb the IDF's momentum
As it had hoped in the previous deal, this time too Hamas would like to see the truce achieved by the first wave of those released, as the turning point in the war.
But this time, perhaps as a lesson from that deal, he wants to extend the break over a longer period of time - about six weeks or more.
In his view, the long period of time will curb the offensive momentum of the IDF, accustom all the factors to the reality of non-combat, allow a change in Israel's agenda in a way that will make it difficult for it to resume fighting and will increase the pressure on it from Washington. The large number of hostages in its hands allows For Hamas to take the risks. According to him, the abductees who will not be released in the first phase will be able to provide him with additional opportunities, if he does not succeed in obtaining all of his desires in the current course.
Armored and engineering fighters work at the Hamas headquarters, photo: IDF spokesman
In the meantime, the respite will allow him to recover.
He will also use this time to replenish stocks, arming, gather up-to-date intelligence, formulate operational plans and of course renew his governance.
Another currency in which Israel will pay for the deal is the release of terrorists from prisons.
Absurdly, if fighting resumes, the release of such terrorists into the ruins of Gaza and Khan Yunis, may actually bring them closer to their deaths.
There is no consolation in this, in the face of the psychological and operational damage of their release.
However, the release of terrorists from Yosh who are imprisoned in Israel will greatly strengthen the position of Hamas in this region, and will return to the terrorist organization the points it lost due to the indirect damage it caused to the residents of Yosh.
Celebration of the release of terrorists (archive), photo: Arab Networks
From the point of view of Hamas, the release of the terrorists to Yosh will not only be a political boost for the organization, but also an opportunity to increase terrorist activities and turn this arena into another significant front that will challenge Israel. at full steam.
The "final picture" of Hamas
It can be assumed that towards the end of the ceasefire in Gaza, Hamas will try to anchor the ceasefire in a semi-official arrangement with Qatar and Egypt.
For the rest of the hostages in his hands, he is expected to present a series of demands: the release of many terrorists from Israeli prisons, the withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip on October 6, commitments to avoid "ground invasions" and targeted countermeasures, and international guarantees to start a rehabilitation program for Gaza.
As far as Hamas is concerned, these are the elements it needs in the final picture it is aiming for.
Or then, the opening blow that he landed on Israel together with his survival against it and with these achievements that he imposed on Israel, will buy him worldly glory and destroy Israel's image as "invincible".
IDF fighters in Gaza, photo: Doc
As far as Israel is concerned, such an end picture is out of the question.
It may expose it to an existential threat against its enemies in all arenas, and will also seriously damage its position in the region, which relies to a large extent on its security strength.
In the circumstances that have arisen, Israel must complete the task and achieve all its goals: a definite victory, by knockout - not by points.
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