Although the opposition's discourse insists on showing Milei as a victim of defeat, this delirium in which the country has been living for weeks is, in truth,
a triumph of Libertad Avanza
.
LLA has only 39 deputies and 7 senators.
“I designed this economic plan before Milei went to the second round
with the assumption that not a single law was going to come out
.
If half of this project passes, it is a gift from heaven,” the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, said this week to those who consulted him about the fiscal consistency of the program if the increase in withholdings did not work.
Sources from the ministry itself describe it like this: ”It has no political ties.
He knows that he was already the bad guy in the movie, he has no problem with the governors accusing him of whatever.”
The account they make at the Treasury Palace is that
it is the provinces that are going to have to request tax increases before the central government
to be able to pay the bills and pay the political cost of that.
Caputo believes that the accumulation of more than 3,000 million dollars of reserves achieved so far by the BCRA, a high but falling inflation and a good thick harvest that guarantees the entry of dollars give it
much more space than what they thought they were going to have. have in December
.
Confidence led them to inform banks Morgan Stanley and Nomura this week that the $1.5 billion loan that had been requested by the end of December will not need to be taken out.
The draft Law of Bases and Starting Points for the Freedom of Argentines had 665 articles and 386 arrived in deputies.
278 fell by the wayside
.
Beyond parliamentary pyrotechnics,
Milei is interested in two issues: inflation and insecurity
.
The third axis is what she considers “structural reforms.”
Around the president they maintain that only a quarter of the reforms have been sent, and that
another batch is coming via decree
.
The style will be similar:
keep the idea of all or nothing
.
An experienced Peronist leader gave him advice in that sense: "before a bad agreement, it is better to remain lawless and go to a plebiscite."
Milei does not suffer in power, but on the contrary
seems to enjoy exercising it
.
He doesn't like politics.
They inform him of the progress of the negotiations – in which he is not personally involved – and he only gives the final OK.
He doubles down when he believes he is being betrayed.
That's what he did with the governors, whom he considers to have constantly led the way.
He cut his losses and withdrew the tax chapter, even though there were points that were going to be approved, such as money laundering.
There will be no way to convince him about the leaders' request: he assures that he will never share the PAIS tax, which, on the other hand,
he plans to eliminate once he lifts the stocks.
His real small table are his sister Karina, the consultant Santiago Caputo – who was just named as an “advisor” this week – and the chief of staff, Nicolás Posse, with a very low profile
but with increasing influence in management.
Communication is central to this process.
Caputo and his team often say that there is a “pact with the people” that must be respected to maintain support.
That includes “not being chaste” and “showing austerity
. ”
They are two symbolic issues that were part of the campaign speech.
“We don't have to appear negotiating.
"It's us against the politicians," said a communication collaborator, in the midst of the fight with Congress.
Caputo has more power than his uncle “Toto”
, the Minister of Economy, and is especially irritating to his opposition interlocutors.
There are two issues from which Milei distances herself: one is the social thermometer, the street, the suburbs.
She delegated assistance to her friend Sandra Pettovello.
Since December, the shipment of dry food to the canteens and picnic areas has been cut off, and it is still unknown when they will resume.
What was clarified is that
there will no longer be food delivery, but rather money, to “make the system transparent.”
They seem not to fear what it means that there will be a lack of food in December, January and probably a good part of February in the poorest places.
The other aspect in which it is separated is the situation of the provinces
.
He does not believe nor does he echo the threat that, due to the lack of support from the Nation, any district will explode.
“It is a federal country, let them take care of what may happen,” he often repeats, even if the outbreak of, for example, the GBA automatically generates a protest in Plaza de Mayo.
The flip side of this good financial performance and the downward inflation curve
is the threat of a deep recession
.
The IMF report estimates a fall in the economy for this year of 2.8%, but if the recovery of the field is taken out, which will rebound strongly after the drought, the deceleration for this year is 5.2%
The consulting firm Poliarquía detected a
drop of 9 points in the president's image
in the first month of his administration.
Eduardo Fidanza warns about the novelty of a recently inaugurated president losing a positive image
when he should be at the moment of greatest generation of hope.
Fidanza also warns about the idea that the president will maintain his social support if he manages to lower inflation.
“That will depend on how big the recession is,” he says.
“If inflation lowers the image and support it retains only if it is without recession.
Society has more tolerance for inflation than for recession.”
For analyst Lucas Romero,
time is a trap
for the Milei Government.
The corrections that must be made in the economy are so profound that they require time, and the bad social climate will increase as quick solutions do not arrive.
“The problem is that time legitimizes the opposition.
Today only the intransigent opponents can be put in front of the Government, which are Kirchnerism, Peronism and the left.
But the rest, which today is a
collaborative opposition,
feel that they have to support them in things that involve assuming political costs.”
But as time goes by the opposition, even the dialogueist, will have more room to criticize and question even this same bill.
For Romero it was a mistake to send a mega package of measures to Congress.
“It was much smarter to make fewer decisions but faster and not as many decisions as he wanted to make and much slower, because 2 months have passed since his mandate and the Government is not going to have made the decisions it had to make.”