Binyamin Netanyahu's leadership is cracking in an unprecedented way - this is according to the "Israel Hayom" survey and the "Mindpool" institute, the results of which are particularly interesting, mainly due to the drop in support for the Likud chairman.
The survey of the mandates of "Israel Hayom" and "The Mind Pool", photo: Photo: Oren Ben Hakon
The survey looked at how many mandates other contenders led by the Likud bring, and the results are fascinating: if Nir Barkat heads the party, he will manage to garner the support of 19 mandates - the same rate of support as Netanyahu garners.
At the same time, if Yossi Cohen heads the Likud, the party will strengthen and increase to 22 seats.
Netanyahu's position as Likud chairman is being undermined in view of the picture of the mandates, photo: Miriam Elster, Flash 90
Compared to the last survey by Israel Hayom, published on January 12, 2024, the current survey shows slight shifts in mandates between the parties.
In the lead is the State Camp party led by Benny Gantz, which is getting stronger with 34 mandates (compared to 31 mandates in the previous poll), followed by the Likud, which is weakening to 19 mandates (21 in the previous poll).
Nir Barkat at the head of the Likud is worth 19 seats: 39% of the party's voters will remain, 28% will go to other coalition parties, and the rest to the opposition parties
The Yesh Atid party weakens to 15 seats (from 17 in the previous survey), Shas remains with ten seats, Israel Beitenu gains two additional seats from the previous survey and stands at nine seats, Otzma Yehudit and religious Zionism drop by one seat to 13 seats, and Judaism The Torah remains with 7 mandates.
Ra'am increases by 1 mandate to 5 mandates, Meretz remains with 4 mandates, Hadash-Ta'al decreases by 1 mandate to 4 mandates, and in this poll as well, as in the previous poll, the Labor Party does not pass the threshold.
In total, the current coalition with 49 mandates (compared to 52 in the previous survey), while the opposition together with the Arab parties reaches 71 mandates (68 in the previous survey).
Yossi Cohen as chairman of the Likud party will strengthen it to 22 seats, retain 41% of its voters and weaken the state camp to 30 seats
Another statistic that can be learned from the survey is that only about half of Likud supporters in the past (47%) choose Likud today, while 16% of the remaining will vote for the state camp and 7% will choose Otzma Yehudit.
On the other side of the political map, about half of Yesh Atid party supporters in the past (45%) choose it again today, but 38% will vote for the state camp and other parties.
Head to head: Netanyahu, Barkat, Cohen
The survey examined scenarios in which other contenders would be at the head of the Likud.
Nir Barkat at the head of the party will obtain 19 mandates, like Netanyahu.
In such a case, 39% of Likud voters will continue to vote for her, 28% of the remaining will move to other parties from the coalition, while 3% will move to the state camp and 7% to other opposition parties.
Map of mandates if Nir Barkat serves as Likud chairman, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
It will also be seen, in the scenario where Barkat leads the Likud, that 4% of Yesh Atid voters will vote for Likud - and so will 10% of religious Zionist voters, 8% of Otzma Yehudit voters, 13% of state camp voters, 12% of Shas voters, 14% of Jewish voters The Torah and 6% of Israel's voters are at home. In that case, the state camp will decrease by one mandate. However, if Yossi Cohen heads the Likud, the party will strengthen to 22 seats, while the state camp will weaken from 34 to 30 seats.
The map of the mandates if Yossi Cohen serves as Likud chairman, photo: Amos Ben Gershom, PM
In such a case, 41% of Likud voters will continue to vote for Likud, and the rest of the party's voters will vote as follows: 26% will move to other parties from the coalition, 6% will move to the state camp and 4% will move to other parties from the opposition.
In this scenario, 6% of Yesh Atid voters will switch to voting for Likud, and so will 3% of religious Zionist voters, 2% of Otzma Yehudit voters, 16% of state camp voters, 6% of Shas voters and 18% of Israel Beitenu voters.
Bennett-Cohen - and the rest lose
The survey also examined a scenario in which a party led by Naftali Bennett and Yossi Cohen will compete together in the upcoming Knesset elections.
The findings of the survey show that in such a case the two will be significantly different in several parties.
The mandate map if a party led by Naftali Bennett and Yossi Cohen runs, and the Labor and Meretz parties unite under the leadership of Yair Golan, photo: Noam Rivkin, Fontum
Thus, Bennett and Cohen will attract 23% of the voters of the state camp and leave her with 23 mandates, 23% of Israel Beitenu voters will choose two and leave her with 7 mandates, while 18% of Yesh Atid voters will go to them and she will receive 10 mandates.
According to the same scenario, 9% of Likud voters would prefer to vote for two and it would obtain only 13 mandates (the rest of the voters will choose another party), 8% of the religious Zionist voters would be deducted in favor of Cohen and Bennett, and the party would reach 5 mandates, while Otzma Yehudit would receive 7 mandates after 3% of its voters will prefer Bennett and Cohen.
were we wrong
We will fix it!
If you found an error in the article, we would appreciate it if you shared it with us