On the Ukrainian issue, Chinese diplomacy has been moving cautiously on a ridge line since the Russian invasion of February 24, 2022. On the one hand, it publicly displays its neutrality in the conflict and pleads for a ceasefire.
On the other hand, it denounces the interference of which Westerners are guilty and is increasingly deepening its cooperation with Moscow.
On January 31, this caution was hardly perceptible during the first public appearance of the new Chinese Defense Minister, Dong Jun, who spoke by videoconference with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu.
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“We will support you on the Ukrainian issue even if the United States and Europe continue to put pressure on China, even if military cooperation between China and the EU has suffered
,” announced Dong Jun, in office since on December 29 after a period of several weeks during which Beijing did not have a defense minister following the brutal and mysterious dismissal of Li Shangfu at the end of October and his public disappearance in August.
“But we will not give up and change our policy, and they will not be able to hinder cooperation between Russia and China
,” the former Chinese navy chief warned.
Chinese ambiguity
Even if mutual praise between Beijing and Moscow is recurrent - like the much-discussed joint declaration of February 4, 2022 according to which
"[Russo-Chinese] friendship knows no limits"
-, never Beijing had not officially and publicly displayed its support for Russia specifically on the Ukrainian issue.
Until then, publicly, Beijing could
“understand”
Russia vis-à-vis Kiev, without
“supporting”
it .
Thus, in September 2022, Li Zhanshu, number 3 of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party, cited by the
New York Times
, reportedly explained to the Russian authorities that China
“fully understood the necessity of all the measures taken by Russia”
, which was placed
“in an impossible position”
in Ukraine.
Since then, Beijing has mainly showcased its ambiguous
“neutrality”
and its very theoretical calls for peace.
The message sent by Dong Jun to Sergei Shoigu on January 31 is therefore “
important
”, notes IFRI researcher Dimitri Minic, a historian specializing in the Russian army, on X (formerly Twitter).
During this interview, the Russian Defense Minister was quick to add that this was not a formal military alliance.
“Unlike some Western countries, our two countries do not form a military bloc
,” he said.
A statement which is now classic in Sino-Russian discourse.
“Russian-Chinese military relations are developing steadily in all directions.
We regularly organize joint naval, air and land combat training activities, and have successfully conducted combat exercises of different levels of complexity
,” added the Russian minister, who considers that this
“comprehensive military cooperation”
does not
“ targets no third country
.
Also read: China now deploys 500 nuclear warheads, according to the Pentagon
Dong Jun, for his part, wishes to
“elevate relations between the two armies to a higher level”
.
"The military should play a more important role in deepening China-Russia comprehensive strategic cooperation and maintaining global security and stability
," the Chinese defense minister said.
Until now, China has not supplied lethal weapons to Russia which, for its war in Ukraine, is instead equipping itself with drones and shells from Iran and North Korea, the Pyongyang regime is also an ally of Beijing.
Chinese all-terrain vehicles have nevertheless been observed in Ukraine, notably in the Kherson region, as well as among the pro-Russian Chechen units of dictator Ramzan Kadyrov.
In February, through Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the United States was officially alarmed by China's possible shipment of weapons to Russia.
But, for a year, the subject has not been publicly raised by Washington.
Trade on the rise
Chinese support for Russia is mainly economic.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, trade between the two countries has increased significantly: it reached 240 billion dollars in 2023, up 26.3% year-on-year, 2022 having already been a record year.
Along with other countries in the “Global South,” Beijing also allows Russia to circumvent sanctions, particularly regarding electronic components.
Russia has also become China's largest oil supplier, overtaking Saudi Arabia.
On the other hand, the Chinese are still cautious about the giant Siberian Force 2 gas pipeline project, for which no contract has yet been signed, to the great dismay of Moscow.
Despite everything, the Russian economy has not collapsed, far from it.
On the contrary, for 2024, the IMF has just raised its outlook from 1.1% to 2.6%.
And Chinese support is no stranger to this.
Despite this declaration of “
support
” from Dong Jun, Ukraine does not appear to be the top priority for Chinese diplomacy.
On January 27, in Bangkok, Thailand, the question of Taiwan was the main topic of conversation between the head of Chinese diplomacy, Wang Yi, and the American national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, a few weeks after the victory in the presidential election from the pro-democracy camp in former Formosa.
Beijing and Washington described their discussions as “frank” and “substantial.”
If the Sino-American dialogue is not broken, the alliance between Beijing and Moscow appears closer than ever, far from the idea once hoped for by certain analysts that the war in Ukraine would distance the two regimes.