Sébastien Boussois is a doctor in political science, researcher in the Arab world and geopolitics, teacher in international relations at IHECS (Brussels), scientific collaborator at Cnam Paris (Defense Security Team) and the Nordic Center For Conflict Transformation (NCCT Stockholm).
2024 would be the year of all dangers.
Several elections are to be followed closely.
Among them those of the United States of course, Russia, Ukraine, within the European Union, and perhaps even Israel.
The recent election of Javier Milei in Argentina contradicts the prevailing idea that populism is losing influence around the world.
While many unconvinced political observers believed some time ago in its erosion or even its end, it appeals more than ever to the electorate, whether we like it or not.
Le Petit Robert defines populism as follows: it is
“political discourse addressed to the working classes, based on criticism of the system and its representatives”.
It allows us to understand why our democracies are less and less connected with the populations they administer.
Because a priori the role of politics remains not only to address the people, and the popular classes, which still remain the most numerous in our societies, and not only to its elites or to a minority even if it makes the rain and good weather.
Explaining the success of populism is not “excusing” or adhering to it.
Read alsoThe return of Donald Trump, the scenario that makes big bosses and heads of state tremble in Davos
Our democracies are in danger, not from populism, but from the profound disconnection of our ruling elites on all sides, who have not only cut the mothering umbilical cord but also abandoned a certain empathy towards suffering populations.
They need vision, order, jobs, money, and pride.
And it is not trying to meet their expectations which is reprehensible and would encourage extremes; on the contrary, it is ignoring them which reinforces the daily erosion of the very notion and deep meaning of democracy.
For four years, the justice system has been looking for lice in his head, but the more he is indicted, the more his electorate supports him, crying conspiracy and scandal.
Sébastien Boussois
And we see this everywhere on the planet: from the late Berlusconi, so much mourned in Italy at the time of his death despite his numerous legal cases to Giorgia Meloni, the current Italian Prime Minister, from Viktor Orban, the Hungarian “populist” hero who is regularly re-elected and constantly challenges Europe with arrogance, including Jaïr Bolsonaro who governed Brazil before the return of another "populist" currently so criticized, Lula da Silva, without forgetting Prime Minister Narendra Modi or the ultra-liberal Javier Milei, and of course Vladimir Putin, one of the precursors of current populism speaking out as the voice of the people, we see that contrary to what some predicted: this new political elite has been spreading across the planet for years.
They respond or try to respond to the discomfort of billions of individuals, and try to put the economy back at their service.
The hero who lasts and endures is of course Donald Trump, who resists and could be elected again in November, whatever the experts think once again.
For four years, the justice system has been looking for lice in his head, but the more he is indicted, the more his electorate supports him, crying conspiracy and scandal.
The worse it is for some, the better it is for others.
Trump speaks for the Americans, and spits on the elites who want his skin.
And he intends to take revenge.
Ron DeSantis, once his number one opponent, collapsed on his own and the former American President will make short work of Nikki Haley, without whom she would never have been anything.
A good part of America wants more.
As in India, as in Hungary, as in Israel with Netanyahu and as in many democracies closer to us, from Greece to Spain or other Eastern European countries with powerful populist parties.
Populism will become less and less of a dirty word.
It is time for our elites, with the help of citizens, to reform our democracies rather than diverting our attention to scapegoats that are often a little too easy.
Sébastien Boussois
So should we spit on this trend which is on the rise and is arriving through the ballot box, or should we finally question the limits of our democracies today?
Commentators confuse the world as it is and as they would like it to be.
Saying that Trump has a strong chance of being re-elected puts you in the pro-Trump box, just like questioning Zelensky's strategy and that of the United States since February 14, 2022, makes you a Putin supporter.
In international relations, we must analyze the world as it is.
Some so-called populist leaders are not re-elected, but it must be recognized: a large part takes center stage and the people like that.
The economy under pre-Covid Trump was going strong.
India, which has become the world's largest demographic power under Modi, is galvanized by its new technologies, its pharmaceutical production and its space ambitions.
Israel, with Netanyahu touting the great Israel and the religious conquest of the territories, manages to return to power.
There is therefore no worse blind person than someone who does not want to see: in this period between two worlds, between two pivotal periods in history, it is time to understand more than just decry why democracy cannot responds more to the needs of the people and why they are turning to other paths that he believes can get them out of the rut.
It is time for our elites, with the help of citizens, to reform our democracies rather than diverting our attention to scapegoats that are often a little too easy.
Anticipating Trump's return and his reasons would have saved us four years in terms of analyzing the phenomenon.