War is the realm of uncertainty, as General Carl von Clausewitz, a Prussian military man, stated 190 years ago.
He probably didn't think in his seminal essay about the Israeli political system of 2024, and yet he hit the mark.
There is a huge gap between the desires of the senior members of the coalition - from the prime minister, through the heads of the parties to the last MKs in Likud - to keep the current government and survive at least until 2025, and the great doubt they express in its ability to successfully pass the upcoming hostage deal.
Unlike the previous deal, which was approved relatively easily, the next deal, which is fraught with immeasurable dilemmas and difficulties, will be brought to the table by the Prime Minister, if he brings it, under threats of opposition and even withdrawal, and not just from one side of the table.
Benjamin Netanyahu does not want elections, that is clear.
The goal he set for himself: April 2025. This is the date he wants to succeed.
According to the assessment, for several reasons: First, it will be after the conclusions, at least preliminary, of the investigative committee that will be established.
Netanyahu is convinced that, contrary to the media campaign and discourse in the hostile studios, in his opinion, he has enough evidence to show that his hand was not above.
That everything he acted and decided he did in obedience to the assessments and recommendations of the military echelon.
Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, it has to do with what is happening across the ocean these days.
Netanyahu has no influence on the election system in the US, but according to the data from there, there is a not bad chance at all that a new president will be elected in November, who will take office in January. Of all the disagreements he now has with the administration (alongside some agreements, or there will be those who say surrender, such as the introduction of hundreds of the trucks on the day to Gaza, low intensity of fighting in the south of the Gaza Strip, etc.), the most difficult dispute is the one concerning the day after.
The Kidnapped Wall in Kibbutz Ruhama, photo: .
The pressure from the White House becomes unbearable with each passing day.
Washington's obsession with announcing right now the introduction of the Ramallah Authority, in one form or another, and Israeli recognition of the two-state solution, knows no rest.
Netanyahu is convinced that he is the only one who can withstand the burst, which should end with the change of administration.
If and when, of course.
But there are situations where elections are the least evil.
For example, when a threat of constructive mistrust hovers in space, or if you believe that there is a chance of winning the elections and returning to the throne of power after them.
Several MKs from the Likud, six in number, agreed among themselves that if Netanyahu would prefer elections to a stable right-wing government without him - they would prefer to go with the ideology. Even after hearing Netanyahu's words that he does not intend to bring the elections ahead of time, they made it clear to him that if he changes his mind and tries - He won't have the fingers needed to dissolve the Knesset. The right-wing government is more important than you, one of the MKs told him.
But despite the determination to maintain the coalition of the 64 MKs from the right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties, no one at this stage is ready to commit to a commitment that this will indeed happen. The impending abductee deal, about which there were enough rumors and reports to shake the system, threatens the integrity of the coalition as it was not threatened In the hands of any party in the last year, from the Kaplan protests until October 7.
And it's not just the chairman of Otzma Yehudit. On Wednesday, several Likud ministers addressed the Prime Minister's office, with a message that he would not take their fingers for granted. The number of terrorists who are supposed to be released from prison as a condition for the release of the kidnapped is unacceptable to them, and even more unacceptable is the long lull in fighting, Which will call into question the ability to continue it at the end of the period. Some Likud ministers used the expression "crazy" in relation to the deal, and emphasized that there is nothing to compare what is now on the agenda to the previous deal, which included a few days of the cessation of hostilities with a clear horizon for continuation.
What does Ben Gvir make?
On the same day, Ben Gvir also took to the podium of the Knesset, and explicitly threatened that a "promiscuous deal" would lead to the dissolution of the government.
Not just resistance, like last time, but retirement.
Those around Netanyahu criticize Ben Gabir for the fact that he is running a continuous campaign, like a long election campaign that never ends, and for not knowing how to work under coalition constraints - but they also admit that he is irreplaceable.
They don't intend to trust Yair Lapid and his security network in any way, and Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot are already there on chicken knees.
Alongside the real moral dilemmas that every leader grapples with, and in particular these days, regarding the fate of the abductees in the Gaza Strip, in the face of the existential need to end the war with the achievement of all its goals, including the dissolution of Hamas and the demilitarization of the Strip - Netanyahu also faces a political dilemma.
In front of Ben Gvir's threats of retirement, threats of retirement are also heard from the other side.
Eisenkot announced that if he feels there is a possibility to make a deal and the government misses it - he has nothing to look for anymore.
If Israel hardens its positions towards Ben Gabir and the deal falters, Eisenkot may decide that this is a missed deal and withdraw.
Gantz and other members of the state camp may also go with him.
Their retirement means the renewal of demonstrations and calls for immediate elections.
In Netanyahu's environment, a clear message is being sent to Ben Gabir, that he is the favorite and that Netanyahu will choose him.
However, they are convinced that what will be brought to the table in the end will be a proposal for a deal that most government ministers can live with.
Ben Gvir and Smotrich may oppose, but they will not resign.
Many of the Likud ministers who now announce that they will not support, will change their minds when they hear the full details.
Netanyahu's office calls the deal "reasonable", and emphasizes that it benefits from the full recommendation of the security establishment, including the cessation of hostilities for a month or more.
As soon as the Chief of Staff or another senior official in the defense system presents his review to the ministers, and makes it clear beyond any doubt that after this period of time the army will be able to restart the war machine, and even continue to targets that have not yet been dealt with such as Rafih and the Philadelphia axis - the Likud ministers will soften and a majority will be found to approve the deal.
The only concern around Netanyahu is that Ben Gabir's retirement intentions are not related to one deal or another, but to his rise in the polls, which may lead him to decide to implement it through elections.
For them, Ben Gvir is an unexpected factor in the coalition, and if they see that the signs of retirement are increasing - they will start a campaign against him by accusing him of dismantling the right-wing government, like in the 1992 elections, when the right-wing dismantled the government and put Yitzhak Rabin in power, and from there to Oslo.
The message now will be that the next Oslo, and perhaps worse than it, is already at hand, under American pressure and with the overwhelming support of Gantz, Lapid and the rest.
Six months in power is enough for them to entangle Israel in another promiscuous agreement, which will bind it for many years.
UNRA is here
The countries of the world made a sensational discovery this week: UNRA is an evil agency. An agency whose central activists are both central activists in Hamas, and those who do not - support most of its values and messages. A unique agency designed to perpetuate the expulsion of the Arabs of Israel and the Gaza Strip, God forbid they try to shake off their past and rehabilitate - as did, for example, the Jews of Europe and Arab countries - but they will remain refugees forever.
One by one, many countries announced that they would stop financial aid to the agency and stop financing its activities.
But there is a country that still allows it to operate without hindrance: the State of Israel.
The agency does not operate in Gaza or Jenin without hindrance - but in the capital city, Jerusalem.
The crimes of perpetuating immigration and supporting the destruction of the state do not only exist in the backyard, but also in the center of the living room.
Schools, kindergartens and other educational institutions poison the Arab population in the east of the city against Jews and against the state, and all - with complete knowledge, even in the facilities of the Israeli Ministry of Education and its institutions.
A new bill now seeks to change that.
Already in the previous Knesset, Nir Barkat, who was the mayor of Jerusalem and who knows the situation there well, tried to pass such a bill, but now another opportunity has arisen.
Through cooperation with members of the Knesset Boaz Bismut, Eli Dellal, Hanoch Milbitsky, Tali Gottlieb, Nissim Vatori and Abraham Bezalel, who once again put the bill forward, the Knesset will discuss an accelerated procedure for its approval in a preliminary reading.
UNRA textbook in Jerusalem, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
According to the law, "UNRA will not operate any representation, will not provide any service and will not carry out any activity, either directly or indirectly, in the sovereign territory of the State of Israel... and should UNRA violate these instructions, the police will act to prevent the activity, including This is a Torah on the closure of any place where the activity takes place or from which the representative office operates."
In the explanatory notes to the law, it is stated: "UNRA is used as a platform for incitement and education for hatred of Israel and for harming its Jewish residents.
The schools it operates in Jerusalem teach anti-Semitic content, and the textbooks glorify terrorists who murdered children and women.
UNRA's institutions serve as fertile ground for carrying out actions and incitement against the State of Israel. For example, according to the report of the UN Commission of Inquiry in 2015, after Operation Protective Edge, it was discovered that UNRA's institutions in Gaza were used by terrorist organizations to store and fire missiles at Israel ".
According to Barkat, "Under the nose of the government, UNRA operates in the capital of Israel and educates the Arab children in East Jerusalem to hate Jews and terrorism.
It is inconceivable that while the world is boycotting UNRA, Israel allows it to operate in Jerusalem, our capital. The bill, which I submitted in the previous Knesset and which was submitted again now together with my friends, puts an end to the absurdity of UNRWA's activities in Jerusalem.
It's not UNRA - it's UNRA. An organization that participated in the October 7 massacre cannot exist in the State of Israel, and certainly not in our capital, Jerusalem. From my conversations with members of the Knesset on both sides of the fence, both opposition and coalition, I am convinced that the law will be passed very soon. UNRA will leave from Jerusalem".
Protest in another way
Thousands of poisonous words were poured out on the organizers and participants of the "Victory Conference" on Sunday at the Nation Buildings, where those present called for the resettlement of Gush Katif.
"Attack", "delusional", "crazy" - these are just some of the superlatives that the residents of the studios and the left-wing politicians showered on the conference island, lest it interfere with the fantasy of turning Gaza into Singapore through the introduction of moderate Arab elements, or the Ramallah Authority in its own right.
But there are those who chose a different discourse.
The only group that demonstrated against the conference and went to the street in front of it was the moderate group.
Nimrod Dveik, CEO of "Drachno", which initiated the demonstration, explained: "Drachno decided to conduct a protest and a matter-of-fact and non-aggressive struggle against the harmful 'Victory Conference'."
The struggle was accompanied by the title 'Victory is to return 115 thousand displaced people home', based on the working assumption that using extreme terminology and a person's body will not achieve its goal.
"There are hundreds of thousands of reservists in Gaza and the north, who put their lives on hold to ensure that the children will play on the lawns and in the kindergartens, and that mothers and fathers will hug their children. That the grandparents will return to the sixth table. It seems that they have forgotten the victims. The hundreds of thousands who live in hotels and kibbutzim and moshavs, the communities that housed in empty buildings as a temporary solution. They left their homes to allow the state to restore to them and to us the security that was lost. They forgot that there are dozens more Shabbat tables in Israel waiting for the abductees to return."
They may not have internalized the security lesson of October 7 - but they are the first to apply the social one.
And that's not much at all.
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