As of: February 2, 2024, 10:49 a.m
Comments
Press
Split
Volodymyr Zelensky's move to remove Ukraine's commander-in-chief could backfire.
There is already speculation in Kiev about a successor.
KYIV - When Volodymyr Zelensky told his top commander, General Valery Zalushny, on Monday (January 29) that he would soon be fired, the Ukrainian president hinted that a change in leadership could provide a refresh.
The public is increasingly exhausted by the Ukraine war and aid from international partners has slowed, Zelensky said, according to a senior Ukrainian official familiar with the conversation.
But a quick, negative reaction within the military ranks, concerns among some officials in Kiev and uncertainty in the West suggest that the removal of the popular general could backfire and Moscow could exploit the instability.
The morale of the troops at the front could also suffer, especially since there is no public explanation for Saluzhny's expected dismissal.
Saluzhny “enjoys a high reputation” in Ukraine
“In this situation, only Russia can win,” said a senior military officer who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
“This was very poorly communicated,” the military official added.
“People had to be prepared for this because Saluzhny is highly respected – not only among soldiers, but also among civilians.”
Read The Washington Post for free for four weeks
Your quality ticket from washingtonpost.com: Get exclusive research and 200+ stories free for four weeks.
In the conversation between Zelensky and Zalushny, described by the first senior official who wished to remain anonymous, the general expressed some final thoughts on the problems that his successor will inherit and made clear why a rapid improvement of Ukraine's position on the battlefield is unlikely.
Any new commander will still be fighting a larger, better-armed force in a war that has reached a grinding stalemate.
The new commander will still need a heavy influx of additional soldiers to replace losses and counter Russia's plan to send 400,000 more soldiers into combat.
And the Ukrainian armed forces will still need more of everything: weapons, ammunition, vehicles and other equipment.
Saluzhnyj calls for more soldiers in the Ukrainian war
The senior official said Saluzhny was not upset about his dismissal.
In fact, the relationship between the two men frayed over the course of the nearly two-year war with Russia.
They simply didn't trust each other, U.S. and Ukrainian officials said.
Zelenskyj, in turn, listened carefully on Monday evening.
My news
Martens and leopards: Ukraine is building a “German” tank brigade
Orbán promises Ukraine EU billions – on one condition read
Direct hit against Putin's Crimean troops: Ukraine achieves unique air strike reading
2 hours ago
Spectacular attack on Russian fleet: Ukraine destroys warship in Crimean Reading
Heavy losses for Russia: tank fleet is easy prey for Ukraine
“Is that protection?” Russia believes there is a plan behind NATO maneuvers – diplomat attacks Germany
There's still a chance the president could change course.
An official familiar with the matter said an official dismissal decree from Zelensky was expected later this week, but as of Thursday afternoon it had not yet arrived.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a bilateral meeting at the White House in Washington in September.
© Tom Brenner/The Washington Post
On Monday, Zelensky's spokesman, Serhiy Nykyforov, denied that the president had fired Saluzhny, but he has not since responded to an updated request for comment.
Perhaps the most serious disagreement in the Zelensky-Salushny dispute was the general's demand to mobilize more soldiers.
Russia has more military forces and weapons than Ukraine, and for Kiev to win on the battlefield, Saluzhny told the president, it must mobilize at least as many soldiers as Russia plans to - about 400,000, according to the senior official familiar with the meeting .
Ukraine also has to prepare for losses that are likely to be comparable to those of last year.
Zalushny's final figure was 500,000, the official said.
However, Zelensky has opposed conscripting so many soldiers, in part because Ukraine lacks the money to pay them without significantly increasing taxes on citizens.
Such an aggressive call-up would also be politically unpopular for the president, although military commanders say the need for it is elementary.
“There really aren’t enough people,” said a major who commands a unit in eastern Ukraine.
“Even if these are just defensive actions, there are always losses.
Someone gets sick, someone is fired for health reasons, or someone is moved to a backward position.
So there are fewer and fewer people willing to be on the actual front line.
“Considering that the Russians have been carrying out offensive operations for several months, especially in eastern Ukraine, the need for people is critical,” said the major.
Exchange in the middle of the Ukraine war?
Saluzhny's successor would be more loyal to Zelensky
Whoever replaces Saluzhny will almost certainly be closer to and more loyal to the president.
The main contenders for the post are Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the current ground forces commander, and Lieutenant-General Kyrylo Budanov, the head of military intelligence.
But U.S. officials had long sensed tensions and distrust between Zelensky and Saluzhny, in part because the president accused his military chief of political ambitions.
The charismatic Saluzhny had a reputation for being courageous and not afraid to speak his mind.
That led to occasional clashes with his Western counterparts, including Gen. Mark A. Milley, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, although overall they maintained a close relationship and at times spoke several times a week.
Syrsky, however, appeared more impressive and inspiring as a classic combat soldier, some officials said, and had a clear understanding of what he saw as the impact of political decisions on the battlefield.
Syrsky was also seen as more accessible to some U.S. commanders.
He forged ties with Gen. Christopher Cavoli, who as head of U.S. European Command oversaw much of the Pentagon's efforts to train and equip the Ukrainian army.
During the Ukrainian counteroffensive over the summer, Cavoli was unable to reach Saluzhny for weeks, although Saluzhny maintained contact with Milley, people familiar with the matter said.
Before the end?
General Valeriy Zalushny, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
© -/Ukrainian Presidency/dpa
However, Syrsky is widely unpopular within the ranks of the Ukrainian military.
Some soldiers consider his orders unreasonable as he sometimes sends men to their deaths.
Others don't respect him because he removed popular commanders in favor of those more loyal to him.
Ukraine could focus primarily on defense in 2024
Meanwhile, Budanov, who has special forces training, has little experience as an army commander.
Some military officers have suggested that even if Budanov were chosen to replace Saluzhny, Syrsky would remain in charge behind the scenes.
Some soldiers and analysts said there was a risk that the next commander would show Zelenskyy too much respect.
Olena Tregub, a member of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Anti-Corruption Council, said there was a risk that someone would "say what Zelensky wants to hear."
The soldiers expressed concern that their commander could be co-opted.
“Concentrating all power in one hand and one office is never a good idea,” said Vlad, a lieutenant who commands a mortar unit in eastern Ukraine.
“This creates a kind of bubble in which important decisions are made at the front and for the leadership of the country in general.”
Part of Zelensky's team's criticism of Saluzhny was the general's repeated calls for more resources, according to a person familiar with the situation who spoke on condition of anonymity.
A White House request for $60 billion in security aid has stalled in Congress.
On Thursday, European Union leaders approved more than $50 billion in aid for Kiev, a rare bright spot for Ukraine, which is increasingly struggling with Russian attacks.
However, the money is not expected to change the situation on the battlefield.
According to Ukrainian and Western officials, Kiev is likely to focus this year on defense - holding the line - rather than trying to retake territory.
Analysts and military officials are highly skeptical that a new commander could do more with fewer resources.
There had been rumors in Kiev for more than a year about the president's dissatisfaction with Saluzhny.
And Zelensky had begun taking steps to show who was in charge.
In August, he fired the heads of all of Ukraine's regional military recruiting offices, citing concerns about corruption.
This move angered Saluzhny, partly because it slowed Ukraine's ongoing mobilization.
Even six months later, not all positions have been filled.
Dispute in Ukraine over recruitment
A new commander will face additional challenges.
The average age of Ukrainian troops is over 40 years old, and some soldiers have fought for more than two years without much of a break.
"Because there are not enough uniformed men, or at least not enough uniformed men in the right place, they cannot be brought out to revitalize, re-equip and retrain except in very small numbers," said Gen. Richard Barrons, former commander of the British military's Joint Forces Command.
“You have a double-edged problem,” Barrons continued.
“People on the front lines are a little tired in some cases.
And they haven’t mobilized enough people to create a larger army that would allow them to rotate troops the way most armies would – nor to build the offensive forces they would need.”
A draft bill in Ukraine's parliament would lower the minimum age for conscription from 27 to 25, but Barrons suggested that Kyiv should try to make its military even younger.
“The fact is that it is very unusual for the wars to be fought by the fathers,” he said.
Ukrainian lawmakers acknowledge that the mixed messages over Zelensky and Zalushny's mobilization have caused panic.
"They shouldn't point fingers at each other," said Roman Kostenko, a member of parliament, adding that perhaps Ukraine should disclose its war casualties so people understand why more troops are needed.
Zelensky cited the need for refresher training as the main reason for Saluzhny's possible dismissal.
But many in Ukraine see the move as a step backwards - a sign of the political infighting that was a hallmark of Kiev before Russia's invasion unified the country.
“At the beginning of the invasion, there was very, very great unity at the top of the Ukrainian state, everyone agreed, everyone protected Ukraine,” Tregub said.
“What is happening now is of course worrying.”
Catherine Belton in London, Karen DeYoung in Washington, and Kostiantyn Khudov and Kamila Hrabchuk in Kiev contributed to this report.
To the authors
Isabelle Khurshudyan
is a foreign correspondent based in Kyiv.
She is a graduate of the University of South Carolina and has worked at The Washington Post since 2014, where she previously covered the Washington Capitals as a Moscow bureau correspondent and as a sports reporter.
David L. Stern
has worked for news organizations in Russia, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, the Middle East and Central Asia.
He has lived in Ukraine since 2009 and reported on the Maidan Revolution in 2014, the war in the east of the country and the Russian invasion in 2022.
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English on February 14, 2024 at the “Washingtonpost.com” - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.