By Peter Nicholas -
NBC News
The path of the current president, Joe Biden, towards the Democratic nomination officially begins this Saturday in South Carolina, the state that four years ago rescued his campaign in trouble.
Biden is the heavy favorite to win South Carolina against relatively weak opposition: Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, an author who ran unsuccessfully in 2020. Early voting began Jan. 22;
Polls close at 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday.
In addition to the fundraising advantages that come with being the person in the White House, Biden is the favorite of the
South Carolina Democratic
establishment , particularly Representative James Clyburn, a power in Congress and a leader in the black community.
[Why the Democratic primary in South Carolina matters]
Biden won the New Hampshire primary in January, but the result is largely symbolic.
In drawing up the official primary schedule, Democratic officials put South Carolina first.
New Hampshire went ahead, against the party's wishes, and as a result its delegates may not count in the final count.
Biden hopes to win South Carolina by a wide margin that could energize his candidacy and distract from his low standing in public opinion polls.
He has visited the state several times in the run-up to the election, including a stop last month at the church in Charleston where a white supremacist murdered nine parishioners in 2015.
Joe Biden.
Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Black voters are a majority of the Democratic electorate in South Carolina.
In his campaign speeches, Biden has highlighted his efforts to improve their lives, mentioning his administration's aid to historically black colleges and programs to eliminate student debt.
He barely mentions his primary opponents, focusing on former President Donald Trump, the favorite to win the Republican Party nomination.
At a recent campaign dinner in Columbia, Biden said: "They are the reason Donald Trump is a defeated former president. They are the reason Donald Trump is a loser. And they are the reason we will win and we will defeat him new".
[Nikki Haley is winning among voters who think Biden legitimately won in 2020]
The gratitude between the president and South Carolina runs both ways.
Biden's 2020 campaign was on the verge of collapsing before the primary in that state in February, after losing in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Buoyed by Clyburn's endorsement, he won the primary, regained momentum, and began his path to the nomination.
South Carolina, for its part, might feel it is indebted to Biden for using his influence in the party to allow them to hold the first official national contest.
Historically, Iowa and New Hampshire have been first and second, respectively, but the Democratic National Committee voted last year to place South Carolina as the leader, citing the state's racial diversity, in contrast to the voter populations of Iowa and New Hampshire. Hampshire which are predominantly white.
"No other president ever, ever thought of moving Iowa and New Hampshire to this president," Jamie Harrison, president of the Democratic National Committee and a native of South Carolina, said at a recent party event in Spartanburg.
"Because he looked at the value that South Carolina had to him and understood how important the state and its people are to the Democratic Party."
Unwilling to give up its leadership position, New Hampshire held votes last month.
Biden was not on the ballot and did not campaign in the state, but he won anyway.
A total of 55 delegates are at risk this Saturday in South Carolina.
They will be distributed proportionally according to the result.
A candidate needs a total of almost 2,000 delegates to win the Democratic nomination.
[For the Democratic primaries, Biden is betting on South Carolina, a state with a lot of weight in 2020]
Biden's support for Israel in its war against Hamas has emerged as a vulnerability in his re-election.
Some young voters, in particular, blame him for sending aid to Israel while his forces bomb Gaza, killing thousands of civilians.
"He's given us a reason not to vote for him
," said Tierra Albert, 19, a student at Claflin University, a historically black school in Orangeburg.
Given Biden's daunting lead, the biggest drama in South Carolina could come on Feb. 24 when Trump and Nikki Haley face off in the state's primary for the Republican nomination.
Under the open primary system in that state, Democrats can vote in one Republican primary (although not both).
That dynamic has fueled speculation that
some Democrats could switch to the other side
and vote in the Republican primary for the sole purpose of helping Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, and slowing Trump's march toward the nomination.
However, there are transversal pressures.
South Carolina Democrats want a crushing turnout to justify the party putting them at the top of the race.
Poor results could spark debate over which state should go first in 2028 and beyond.
Voting early in January, Clyburn was asked by NBC News about the possibility of Democrats skipping their party's primary and instead participating in the Republican primary for Haley.
"I've heard a lot about it," he said, "I've never supported it and I don't even think it works."