It is not remembered in the 40 years of democracy that the first 56 days of a government, like the one now headed by Javier Milei, have been so
electrifying, tiring and exhausting
.
There is not even an analogy with that early inauguration of Carlos Menem in 1989. There was, it is true, a time of hyperinflation.
But there was a political system that rose to the occasion.
The classic two-party system, of Peronists and radicals, and two undisputed leaderships.
That of the former Rioja president and that of Raúl Alfonsín.
Milei embodies a leadership
anchored exclusively for now on the 56% of the votes
he obtained in the November runoff.
Whose fidelity, given the context, is beginning to be a mystery.
It lacks a territorial structure and exhibits a tiny parliamentary representation (38 deputies and 7 senators) formed in the alluvial manner with which La Libertad Avanza emerged.
With very few reservations, that identity emerged during the debate on the Omnibus Law.
The bloc of deputies moved with unwavering loyalty to the President.
But he exhibited a lack of knowledge on two levels: the deep content of the mega project;
the administrative process that prevails in the deliberation of the committees and in the debate in the Chamber.
The news made in a reflex stroke always induces the comparison of Milei with other known phenomena.
Donald Trump is often mentioned, who has expressed public sympathies with the libertarian leader.
It is inevitably noted in Jair Bolsonaro, also disruptive, provocative, born from a small party (Liberal) that immediately established a system of alliances with similar organizations - and not so similar - that allowed him to govern and fight for Lula da Silva's re-election.
An opposition deputy, a key link with the Government through the Omnibus Law, prefers to establish a distance between Milei and those presumed peers.
“He is a prototype.
A first mold.
It can't be pigeonholed yet.
You have to see it going,”
he considered.
In these 56 days Milei made two large investments in search of strengthening his political capital.
The mega law and the Decree of Necessity and Urgency (DNU).
The first project was a thematic salad of 660 items
whose heart was the package of fiscal measures
, a continuation of Luis Caputo's first decisions.
It was reduced to less than half and empty of tax matters that the Government itself extracted after the disagreement with the collaborative opposition and the governors.
It was approved in general, with 144 votes, and was sold by La Libertad Avanza as a great victory.
It is?.
The vote in particular remains, where we will see three issues that could give support to that official optimism: the delegation of powers, companies authorized to be privatized and control of the debt that Congress does not want to give up.
Two thirds of the DNU are almost
blocked by judicial presentations from sectors that claim to feel their acquired rights have been violated
.
The labor reform that put the General Confederation of Labor (CGT) into war and induced it to take the first measure of force stands out.
It seems like more than just a blockage.
There was a court ruling against it in the first instance.
The Labor Appeals Chamber declared the “unconstitutional invalidity” of that reform.
The appeals filed along the way by the Treasury Attorney, Rodolfo Barra, were unsuccessful.
In the light of the partial results, those first investments by Milei would not have been as politically profitable as he assumed.
His parliamentary weakness could have influenced the outcome.
Also, the fragmentation and lack of leadership of the opposition with a willingness to collaborate (PRO, radicalism and We Make the Federal Coalition).
Why not, also, the invulnerable refusal of Kirchnerism.
Nothing would hide, however, the adoption of a wrong strategy and a central political leadership whose orientation is disconcerting.
Milei started his cycle without paying attention, perhaps, to
the relationship of his own strength and that of his adversaries
.
Without considering, either, that the profound changes he proposes are forced to navigate institutional labyrinths.
She surmised that her main election campaign tool – targeting “the caste” in the face of a jaded society – would be enough to corner the opposition.
She would feel obligated to accompany him.
She wouldn't have taken a couple of other aspects into account.
Her offensive coincided with initial economic measures that deepen the economic-social deterioration
.
Reality, in many cases, forced him to approach “the caste” to try to give sustainability to the projects.
He pressured the governors for fiscal adjustment.
He accused them of wanting to defend their privileges.
He threatens to turn off the tap on the transfer of funds.
In a similar way he attacked the deputies who raised objections to the Omnibus Law.
Insinuating that they would be “coimeros” within “the caste” that they claim to fight.
Last week he ended up displacing Daniel Scioli from the Embassy in Brazil.
He enthroned him as Minister of Sports, Tourism and Environment.
An official of great ductility, without a doubt, but belonging like few others to the lineage that he claims he intends to banish.
It will be necessary to see if the path of the former Kirchnerist ends there.
Or he ends up in a chair of greater political importance in the future.
Perhaps an erroneous, or partial, diagnosis of the electoral result that ended up making him President is also influencing Milei's course.
That 56% would be broken down into a third that belongs to it from the PASO.
Around 25% owned by the extinct Together for Change coalition, whose will was to
put an end to Kirchnerism
.
An electorate more volatile than their own.
Even, at some point, he could have opted for a Peronist option.
In all cases, the demand to cut inflation in the bud is among the priorities.
It is true that ending this Argentine scourge requires a traumatic and complex practice.
Both sensations become more acute if a horizon cannot also be drawn.
Faced with this panorama, abruptness has an impact.
The bet on “if it's not everything, it's nothing
”, which the Minister of Security, Patricia Bullrich, repeats, is not at all simple.
Trying to go from an omnipresent and useless State to a modern and efficient one is not done in one breath.
Nor from an ultra-regulated economy, with around 67 thousand regulations that govern it, to another where activity and values move when and how they want.
In the context of a declining society decades ago.
There was an example of the abyss that exists between words and facts.
On Thursday the social movements (Evita and the Current and Combative Class, which participated in Alberto Fernández's government, returned) circulated in the AMBA demanding food in shops and supermarkets.
A group that responds to Juan Grabois fell into the headquarters of Human Capital (formerly Social Development) headed by Sandra Pettovello.
The minister had the courage to go out into the street to talk to the protesters.
She asked each of them, to get out of the way, for personal information in order to send them food and avoid the intermediaries that are part of the black business of politics.
Laudable goal.
Difficult to consummate that way.
Food assistance crosses the entire country.
This way of observing reality was the one that also prevailed in the negotiations in Congress.
There was no comprehensive view from the Government that would make it possible to unblock the Omnibus Law as quickly as possible.
He preferred to fragment the dialogue or engage in useless resistance.
He ended up giving in a lot, leaving tatters along the way.
Examples: of the eleven delegated powers that Milei requested, he would get six;
He started with the idea of privatizing 41 state companies, reduced them to 29 and settled on 26. Each of these things must be endorsed in the particular vote.
He overlooked another obstacle that is around the corner: the mega project must receive the approval of the Senate for it to become law.
In all these weeks there has not been a “mirror” work with the Chamber led by Vice President Victoria Villarruel.
It is not the only thing that draws attention to the presidential procedure.
He sent Guillermo Francos, the Minister of the Interior, to Congress several times to dialogue with the opposition blocs that helped him achieve the general approval of the mega law.
The official got tired of listening, although without adopting definitions.
On Thursday, Karina, “El Jefe”, and Santiago Caputo, the young man from the networks, appeared.
They were the ones who raised or lowered their thumbs to bless the progress of the project.
Caputo, whose specialty outside the networks is unknown, was also in charge of
giving the green light to the possibility of incorporating the PAIS tax into the general articles next Tuesday.
It would not be shareable.
In any case, a transaction with the governors who helped promote the mega project.
With percentages to be distributed that remain under discussion.
The advisor was also responsible for a staging in the epilogue.
He released a warning presidential statement an hour before the vote.
When everything was cooked.
“It is time for the representatives of the people to decide if they are on the side of the freedom of Argentines or on the side of the privileges of the caste,” he warned.
At the end of the session he issued another note of greeting and celebration.
This behavior seems like the fragile envelope of a crisis that incubated for decades with similar vices.
Also, with intolerance and violence.
Deputy Miguel Angel Pichetto explained it impeccably while the curtain was lowered in Deputies.