Yesterday (Saturday) the main headlines on all the news sites of the regime in the Islamic Republic of Iran dealt with one topic: the impressive victory of the Iranian soccer team over Japan and their qualification to the next stage of the Asian Cup.
After clarifying the order of priorities, we can scroll a little and reach the news that interests us in Israel - the mutual bombings of the USA and the Islamic Republic (including its branches) in Syria and Iraq.
Attack on a weapons convoy of the pro-Iranian militia in northeastern Syria (archive)
On Friday evening, the United States began attacking targets identified with the Quds Force - the foreign arm of the Revolutionary Guards - in Iraq and Syria. On Saturday, under the news about football, news about this attack as well as about the counterattacks by an organization called the "Islamic Resistance of Iraq", one from many organizations supported by Iran, on American bases in Syria and Iraq. Attacking through proxy organizations allows the Islamic Republic to disavow the attacks and say that it is not them at all.
The attack on Friday followed a drone attack on an American base in Jordan on the Syrian border - an attack for which the same Iraqi organization accepted responsibility, and in which three American soldiers were killed, the first that the USA loses in the current war.
The Americans did not recognize that it was an enemy drone because they thought it was their drone returning from an attack, which implies that this attack also followed previous attacks, and so for years.
Biden ended his speech following the event with the words: "And you will have no doubt - we will settle accounts with all those responsible at the time and in the manner we choose."
These words are very reminiscent of Iran's reactions every time one of the commanders of the Quds Force "becomes a martyr" courtesy of the US or Israel: revenge at the time and in the manner deemed appropriate.
The scene of the attack in the town of Sida Zainab in Syria (archive), photo: None
Both the US and the Islamic Republic do not want the situation in the region to escalate into World War III. Therefore, the Islamic Republic prefers to leave the dirty work to proxy organizations, especially the "Islamic Resistance of Iraq".
Nevertheless, there were several attacks for which the Revolutionary Guards accepted direct responsibility, by Iran's enemies in Pakistan and Kurdistan.
In Kurdistan, a rich businessman was killed along with his infant daughter in an attack on their home, which was defined as the "headquarters of the Mossad".
The "proof" of his being a Mossad agent was a picture of him with a Chabad rabbi in Russia, which was quickly proven to be photoshopped. After each assassination and attack, the attacked party declares that revenge will come "at a time and in a manner that seems appropriate."
A recurring mask of attacks and revenge
It happened four years ago after the US elevated General Qasem Soleimani to the coveted status of "martyr" (or as the Iranians say - to the status of a meatball); it happened on each of the years since his death, and especially on the last anniversary, and also nine days before when Sid Rechi Mousavi, the chief logistics officer of the Quds Force, was killed in Syria; this happened after Saleh Arori was killed in Lebanon on the eve of Soleimani's memorial day, and on the same day ISIS carried out a mass attack on the Soleimani memorial procession.
Opponents of the Iranian regime in front of the court in Sweden during the trial of Hamed Nouri (archive), photo: AP
The reason for the statements and revenge through the proxy organizations is that the two powers know that if they put the matter on the agenda, the other side might try next time to carry out an attack or terrorist attack of a larger scale.
The second danger for Iran is its "face" in front of the people.
The regime in Tehran is indeed powerful and violent, but public opinion is still important: it is important that the opponents of the regime understand that they should not raise their heads.
The regime must show that it is impossible to just harm it and its interests.
The regime is also criticized from the right, and it needs to show its critics that it is not showing weakness.
It is likely that this delicate balance of terror of an exchange of blows below the threshold of war will be maintained.
Neither side really wants this war, but neither side can back down while the other side is still attacking.
The author is an expert on Iran from the Azri Center at the University of Haifa and the author of the historical novel "The Queen"
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