Egypt's blow:
The neighbor to the south recently sent strong messages to Israel, according to which the passage of Palestinian refugees from Gaza to Sinai would endanger the peace agreement between the two countries.
Israel-Egypt relations info, photo: Yaacov Sa'ar / L.A.M
The messages were conveyed in a series of contacts between senior officials in Egypt and senior officials in Israel, and their content was communicated to the entire political-security elite in Israel.
Egypt clarified that it will not agree to the passage of refugees from Sinai to its territory.
complex concern
According to one source, the Egyptian message was that "if even one Palestinian refugee passes, the peace agreement will be cancelled."
Another source said that the Egyptian message was softer, according to which "if even one Egyptian refugee passes, the peace agreement will be suspended."
Both sources explained the firm messages sent by Egypt with a mixture of anger and concern.
The anger stems from various statements and position papers, which recommended the removal of Palestinians from Gaza as a possible solution to the Gaza problem.
The Ministry of Intelligence, led by Minister Gila Gamaliel, recommended this in an official paper it published, and in recent weeks there have been several similar statements by ministers and members of Knesset, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich who repeated the same on several occasions.
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The Egyptian concern is the transfer of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza to Sinai and their remaining there.
According to the source, no country will agree to take in such a volume of Palestinian refugees, and they will become a "permanent Egyptian problem" as defined by one of the sources.
This concern has two main motives: the first, that Palestinians will try to leave Gaza against the backdrop of the precarious humanitarian situation in the Strip.
The second, that Palestinians will try to escape for fear of being harmed in the war.
The Philadelphia Axis Question
This is also the reason why Egypt made it clear to Israel that it strongly opposes the expansion of the fighting to Rafah, and an Israeli takeover of the Philadelphia Axis.
About 1.4 million of the approximately 2.2 million citizens of the Gaza Strip are currently concentrated in the Rafah sector, and Egypt fears that an Israeli operation in the city will lead to a mass flight to Sinai.
Since Israel is preventing Palestinians from returning to their homes in the northern part of the Strip, it will in fact leave them no option but to flee south.
For Israel, this is a real problem: a Hamas military brigade with four battalions operates in Rafah, the destruction of which is required as part of the plan to destroy the organization's military capacity in the Gaza Strip.
Taking over the Philadelphia axis is also essential, in order to cut off the active smuggling axis between Sinai and the Gaza Strip.
Philadelphia axis. Photo: E.P
According to various estimates, there are dozens of smuggling tunnels in the area, some of which still operate today.
Hamas used these tunnels to smuggle people and goods, especially weapons (including those used during the October 7 attack and the war).
Taking over the Philadelphia axis will oblige the IDF to stay for a long time, until a permanent solution to the smuggling problem is found.
There are several such possible solutions: a permanent stay of Israel in the place;
The construction of an underground barrier similar to the barrier erected on the Israel-Gaza border (which was not penetrated in the October 7 attack);
placing a multinational force;
Deploying a reinforced Egyptian force.
In Israel they will strive to combine several solutions at the same time, for example of an obstacle that will be overcome by regular Egyptian or international activity, and perhaps a combination of both.
The widespread destruction in the Gaza Strip, photo: Arab Networks
The possibility of permanent Israeli residency is slim, because it will be perceived in the world as a renewed occupation of the Strip, and will oblige Israel to answer its problems.
Israel has already made it clear that at the end of the war it intends to completely disengage from Gaza, and not as it has done until now, when most of the goods and fuel entered Gaza from the country - and in order not to be accused of suffocating it, it must allow Gazans entry and exit gates.
Since Gaza has no sea and air ports and the crossings from Israel will be closed, the Palestinians will only have a smooth passage for the entry and exit of goods and the passage of people.
Interest in ruling Hamas
All these moves require close coordination between Israel and Egypt.
Since the beginning of the war, the contacts between the parties have mainly been based on the axis between the head of the Shin Bet, Ronan Bar, and the head of Egyptian intelligence, Abbas Kamal. This axis - and parallel axes maintained by the Mossad and the IDF with their counterparts in Cairo - continue to be conducted despite the demonstrated anger of the authorities in Cairo towards the Israeli government.
The Egyptians also play a significant role in the negotiations for another hostage deal with Hamas.
Close coordination.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and the head of Egyptian intelligence Kamal, Egyptian President al-Sisi archive, photo: Getty Images
The government in Egypt has very little sympathy for Hamas, as part of its rivalry with the Muslim Brotherhood.
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi came to power in a military coup, after ousting Mohammed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, who ruled Egypt for about a year.
However, Egypt maintains extensive ties with Hamas, as part of its efforts to expand its influence in the region, but also as an insurance certificate against the spillover of Hamas activity into its territory.
Various sources in Israel have assessed in recent months that Egypt has a distinct interest in Israel defeating Hamas.
This is to strengthen the moderate elements in the region against the radical axis led by Iran.
According to them, Israel must act in Cairo to allay Egyptian fears that the war in Gaza will harm Egyptian interests, chief among them the possibility of Palestinian refugees moving to Sinai.
"The day after" in the strip
These things are indeed said in the security contacts between the countries, but Egypt is disturbed by the public statements of Israeli politicians, and by the fact that they imply that the Israeli government does not aim to settle the situation in Gaza at the end of the war.
Fear of an influx to the south.
Rafah crossing, photo: AFP
Egypt belongs to the axis led by President Biden - in which the countries of Europe and the Gulf are also partners - which is trying to lead a broad move in the framework of which control of Gaza will be handed over to the Palestinian Authority (in a new format), and in return Israel will receive an extensive basket of benefits that will include security assistance, economic agreements, and the highlight - normalization with Saudi Arabia, and later For this with other Arab and Muslim countries.
This Egyptian concern is not without foundation.
The avoidance of dealing with the issue of the day after is already harming the activities of the IDF and disrupting relations with the United States. Here, too, the statements of Israeli politicians have considerable weight in worsening relations. Itamar Ben Gabir's promiscuous words to the "Wall Street Journal" yesterday were not only a demonstration of good coercion, but rather a basic lack of understanding of Israel's national interests in times of war.
In the good old days, Netanyahu would prevent such statements, and even fire ministers who dare to harm the good of the country in this way.
However, he is now guided by his own political interest, and the inevitable result is damage to Israel's foreign relations.
The explicit Egyptian threat should be seen as a warning sign: Israel is playing with fire and endangering the first peace agreement it signed, which is a cornerstone of its strength and its relationship with the entire Arab world.
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