As soon as Hamas lays down more bricks for the progress of a deal to release the abductees and gives up its demand for a cease-fire, the pendulum will shift to the Israeli side.
The mediators pushing behind the scenes to promote a deal, each for their own reasons, are expected to push Hamas to the wall until it says "I want" - then the negotiations will officially open.
So a political drama is expected in Israel that will shape the fate of the deal and the composition of the government.
Netanyahu: "We are working to obtain another outline for the release of our hostages, but I emphasize: not at any cost"
Political officials who are talking these days with cabinet member and minister Gadi Eisenkot hear that a deal must be implemented even while paying high prices on Israel's part (not at the price of stopping the war).
This has always been his position in the war cabinet - first the release of the kidnapped and then continued fighting, even before his son fell in battle.
Since then, those around him claim, this position has strengthened to the point of a real threat regarding his remaining in the government if Prime Minister Netanyahu finally decides not to promote it for fear of paying a political price.
The opposition in the right-wing base to a deal at high prices for the release of terrorists and a prolonged delay in fighting is already in front of Netanyahu's eyes, as well as his political partners who are threatening to leave.
But on the other side of the equation now stands Eisenkot, in whose party quite a few sources claim that he will not hesitate to resign from the government if the deal falls through.
Sources who talk to him hear that a deal must go through even while paying high prices.
Gadi Eisenkot, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
Eisenkot's decision will actually shake the ground from under the feet of his party's chairman, Minister Benny Gantz, who wants to remain part of the government for the foreseeable future. This has to do with the pressure the American administration is exerting on him to stay, combined with the flattering polls that he would not like to see them fall - and also an interest Another toddler: the risk of developing another war on the northern border.
With his insistence, Eisenkot practically takes away from him the possibility of being chosen as the party's head - since he himself never really put conditions on the table for retirement - except for the end of the war.
Gantz knows that if he lets him retire on his own - the political support he receives by staying in the government will drop immediately, and then he may give a hand to the growth of a new party that will take mandates from him.
Therefore, it is likely that Eisenkot's retirement will force him to retire as well.
In order to neutralize the American pressure brace, he may soon consider again Lieberman's entry into the government.
Netanyahu, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
Lieberman is in the crosshairs
Behind the scenes, the democratic government does not withdraw its hands from Israeli politics.
The composition of the 64th government is not comfortable for him to promote future political moves, so he sends messages to two main personalities: Benny Gantz, asking him to stay for a long time, and Yair Lapid - asking him to come in.
To neutralize this pressure pad, Netanyahu may soon again consider Lieberman's entry into the government, a move that the people of New Hope are also trying to promote so that the pressure on them to leave the government will decrease.
Lieberman, for his part, conveyed a message to Netanyahu through his people in the Knesset that only an explicit request from the Prime Minister himself would lead to his entry into the government.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu, for his part, is in no hurry to pave the way for him to enter.
The chairman of the Yisrael Beytenu party, whose positions are known, may press Netanyahu even further to the right and challenge him in the face of American pressure to expand aid and other moves that do not serve the Likud chairman with his voters.
conveyed a message to Netanyahu through his people in the Knesset that only an explicit request from the Prime Minister himself would lead to his entering the government. Avigdor Lieberman, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
This political snowball will begin to roll when Hamas eventually puts its demands in writing, and under Qatari pressure, the price it will demand in return for a non-ceasefire will translate into the release of masses of terrorists from Israeli prisons.
The composition of the war cabinet that will decide on the issue may change on the fly.
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