Europe is afraid of Russia and the hypothesis of Donald Trump's return to the White House.
The American magnate confessed at a summit in 2020 to the leaders of European institutions that, in the event of a Russian attack on NATO countries,
he would breach the obligation
arising from the Atlantic Alliance treaty and would not come to their aid.
They are warned.
Can Europeans resist Russia without the American nuclear umbrella, the key to the northwest security structure?
To conventional military Russia, apparently in Ukraine, surely yes.
Not to nuclear military Russia.
Unless Europe has the nuclear weapon itself.
The debate, purely theoretical because no one in Brussels is thinking about building a nuclear weapon for the bloc, has a practical variant.
France is a member of NATO and the European Union and, since Brexit, the only country in the European Union with a military nuclear capability.
Can France play the role of insurance of last resort for Europe that the United States has played since World War II?
This theoretical question is being discussed in the European chancelleries, according to what two of the most veteran and best-informed European correspondents in Brussels, the Frenchman Christian Spillman and the Italian David Carretta, said this Tuesday.
Then-US President Donald Trump, with Russian Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in Germany, in 2019. Photo: AP
Can France protect Europe?
The NATO and European Union treaties ensure that mutual defense, but the nuclear weapon was outside that equation.
French nuclear doctrine ensures that deterrence, the threat of the use of nuclear weapons, is there to protect France's vital interests.
The final decision lies with the President of the Republic, right now the liberal Emmanuel Macron.
Is it within France's vital interests to prevent, for example, Russia from occupying a member country of the European Union and NATO such as Romania or Poland?
Macron decides.
The French president traveled on January 30 and 31 on a state visit to Sweden, the next country that will join the Atlantic Alliance as soon as Hungary stops dragging its feet and ratifies the accession, which all the other partners have already done.
Macron went to the Royal Military Academy in Karlberg, where he gave a speech about Europe and its security and where he accepted several questions from the young cadets.
One was to the point: “Does France feel that it has a particular responsibility regarding the protection of the European Union and the Arctic passage?”
“Definitely yes,” replied Macron, who added: “Our vital interests are in part essentially European, which leads us to a particular responsibility for what we possess, our deterrence capacity, to put it bluntly.”
The president of France, Emmanuel Macron, assures that he will protect the European Union.
Photo: AFP
Macron's response seems clear: France understands that among its vital interests is the security of the European Union as a whole and
will protect it with its nuclear umbrella,
much smaller than the American one but sufficient as a deterrent against an attack from an external power. with nuclear capacity, with capital in Moscow and with a president named Vladimir.
The problem with that interpretation may be exactly the same as in the United States.
The Democrats do not hesitate to assure that they would always fulfill their obligations as members of NATO in the defense of their partners, something that the Republicans are no longer able to promise.
And the same thing happens in France.
Even if Macron said that,
the extreme right of Marine Le Pen, which is increasingly closer to power, is not on the same line as Macron
.
The ultra leader said that the president wants to “share our nuclear power” and “Europeanize” the French nuclear weapon.
There should be no more hateful word for the French extreme right than “Europeanizing.”
The extreme left of 'Los Insumisos', which is also nationalist, protested equally.
But the war in Ukraine and the possibility of having an American president in the White House who ignores the security of the Old Continent changed everything.
The world of nuclear deterrence is imprecise and the decision about the use of a nuclear weapon is ultimately limited to one person (and his political and military advisors).
Can European governments feel safe with French protection?
A senior European diplomatic source believes that, although France has not reached the point of sharing the weapon with its European partners and that it will always maintain the final decision on its use, it can now be understood that European countries are part of its vital interests as a member. of the European Union.
Would France threaten Russia with a nuclear weapon if Moscow threatened Germany?
“Yes,” says this source.
And to Poland?
“Probably,” says the same person.
What if it were Lithuania?
“If I were the Lithuanian prime minister I wouldn't want to know the answer, but you never know.”
C.B.