The IDF attacked a series of targets of the terrorist organization Hezbollah in five different areas in southern Lebanon/IDF Spokesman
The Biden administration hopes to announce in the coming weeks together with its allies, France, Great Britain, Germany and Italy, new understandings that will stop the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah and restore calm to the northern border, according to two senior Israeli officials and a source familiar with the matter.
why is it important
One of the main goals of the Biden administration since October 7 was to prevent an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah and to prevent the crisis in Gaza from spreading to other countries in the Middle East.
Biden entrusted the Israeli-Lebanese case to his close adviser Amos Hochstein who managed the negotiations between Israel and Lebanon on the maritime border agreement signed in October 2022.
Sources familiar with the matter said that the United States hopes that the hostage deal between Israel and Hamas will bring about a lull in the fighting in Gaza and facilitate the achievement of calm on the northern border, but is preparing to announce the new understandings between Israel and Lebanon even if this does not happen.
Biden/Reuters
Quick reminder
A few days after October 7th, clashes began on the northern border between Israel and Hezbollah that have been going on with increasing and decreasing intensity for four months.
Israel evacuated tens of thousands of residents from settlements near the border for fear of an invasion by Hezbollah's Radwan force.
Due to the shooting at the settlements, the residents cannot return to their homes.
Israel has announced several times that the situation along the border must change - either through a political move or through a military move - so that the residents can return to their homes.
One of the Israeli conditions is that Hezbollah's Radwan force be moved 10 kilometers from the border with Israel - beyond the range where anti-tank missiles can hit Israeli settlements.
In the news center
Hochstein visited Israel on Sunday and met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Galant and Minister Benny Gantz to discuss his proposal for new constructions along the border.
The plan of the Biden administration is based on the model of the "Grapes of Wrath" understandings between Israel and Hezbollah that the United States and several Western countries announced in order to bring an end to the Israeli operation in Lebanon in 1996.
The sources indicated that the new understandings will not be officially signed by the parties, but the United States and the four European countries will publish a statement detailing the commitments each party has undertaken.
The United States, France, Great Britain, Germany and Italy will also announce a package of economic benefits to Lebanon in order to give an incentive to Hezbollah to agree to understandings and present an achievement to the Lebanese public.
According to the sources, the understandings will focus on the partial implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War.
Since the two sides will not be obliged to comply with all articles of resolution 1701, it will be possible to implement the new understandings even if there is no full ceasefire in Gaza, as Hezbollah demanded.
The sources stated that the new understandings will include a commitment by both sides to stop the exchange of fire that has taken place in the border area since October 7.
As part of the understandings, Hezbollah will not be asked to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River as required by Resolution 1701, but only to a distance of 8-10 km from the border with Israel, the sources stated.
The exchange of fire between the parties since October 7 has already caused Hezbollah to withdraw the Radwan forces to a distance of 7-10 km almost along the border line with Israel.
The sources stated that the understandings will be based on the principle of "freezing the situation" - Hezbollah will not be obliged to withdraw its forces from the places where they are now, but will undertake to return them to the positions where they were near the border before October 7.
As part of the understandings, those who will be deployed along the border with Israel are 10-12 thousand Lebanese army soldiers.
The sources stated that as part of the understandings, Israel will be required to take its own steps.
The United States asked Israel to stop flights of Israeli fighter jets in Lebanon's airspace.
Israel did not reject this request.
Israel will be asked to commit to withdrawing some of the forces it has been concentrating on the border for the past four months - mainly reservists.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Cabinet meeting, December 24, 2023/Flash 90, Miriam Elster
Behind the Scenes
During the month of January, the Biden administration greatly feared a deterioration into an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Biden discussed the issue with Netanyahu and Defense Minister Austin and Hochstein himself discussed it with Gallant.
A source familiar with the matter said that the American message to Israel was that an initiated Israeli move would be perceived by Hezbollah as a doomsday war and the organization would mobilize all the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria to help it fight Israel.
The Americans told Israel that they do not underestimate the capabilities of the IDF to seriously damage Lebanon, but believe that it would be a strategic error to make such a move.
Two senior Israeli officials said that Israel did not intend to initiate a broad military move against Hezbollah in January, but was concerned that Hezbollah was planning a broad attack of its own.
It took time for Defense Minister Galant to convince Hochstein that Israel was interested in a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
the other side
A source familiar with the matter said that the United States believed that Hezbollah was underestimating the seriousness of the situation on the northern border and the danger of an all-out war with Israel.
Nasrallah conveyed messages to the United States through intermediaries, according to which he knows that the United States controls Israel and can prevent it from going to war against Lebanon.
The United States made it clear to Nasrallah through intermediaries that this was not the case.
The commander of the Lebanese army, Joseph Awan, and other Lebanese officials conveyed messages to Hezbollah that they were overestimating the ability of the United States to stop Israel and warned the organization against miscalculation.
Senior Israeli officials stated that in recent days the fear of an escalation on the northern border has decreased.
US Defense Secretary Austin said at a press conference last week that the way the United States managed the crisis was a diplomatic "brainchild".
Nasrallah/screenshot, Al-Mayadeen
Why pay attention?
The sources indicated that the second phase of the understandings may include negotiations between Israel and Lebanon with American mediation, to settle some disputes regarding the land border between the countries.
Israel and Lebanon agreed in principle to such negotiations, but this could only happen if the resident calmed down on the northern border.
what are they saying
A senior White House official told Walla that the United States has made it clear that it does not want the war in Gaza to spread to Lebanon.
"The safe and secure return of Lebanese and Israeli citizens to their homes is of great importance to the United States. We continue to examine and exhaust all diplomatic options with our partners in Israel and Lebanon to achieve this goal," said the official.
More on the same topic:
Hezbollah
United States
Gaza war
War of Iron Swords