Gone are the copious rains in November and December that generated the El Niño phenomenon and that generated expectations in the countryside and in the Government of Javier Milei of achieving a record harvest.
After a January with little rainfall,
today the photo of the crops is different.
Last week's high temperatures, which exceeded 38 degrees on several days in the main productive region,
impacted soybeans at the most sensitive moment of the critical period
.
60% of the soybeans are filling grains (defining the final yield) while the rest is going through pod development.
“Prime soybeans were doing very well until this week when the heat began and the lack of rain began to manifest itself in lower quality lots.
And this is happening in much of the core region.
The prospect of a great campaign begins to fade and the first link that gives way is the low quality soils, where there is marked stress and loss of yield.
The status of 1st grade soybeans in the core region suffers a significant setback.
"For the first time, regional circulation conditions are completely neutralizing the positive influence of El Niño," said climatology consultant Alfredo Elorriaga.
According to the Rosario Stock Exchange,
from 90% of the soybeans under very good to excellent conditions last week went to 65%
in the soils of lesser agricultural suitability located in the core zone.
And there are regular and bad lots in 10% of the soybean area when there were none a week ago.
"If the situation does not change in 15 days, what happens today in bad soils will happen in good soils and the harvest will collapse," the Rosario entity warned.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) estimated two weeks ago that the harvest would reach 52.5 million tons, the highest volume in the last four campaigns.
And it projected that exports of the soybean complex (beans, flour and oil) would rise by 61.5%, which represents US$8,138 million more than in 2022/2023, reaching US$21,368 million.
Now, with this new scenario, this initial projection could decrease.
In any case, the harvest is still high compared to last year, affected by the worst drought in the last 100 years.
The good news is that
this week the rains would arrive
and temperatures would drop in the central region of the country, which would give crops a break.
Added to all this
is the drop in international prices
.
Soybeans are trading at US$440 on the Chicago market, the lowest value since November 9, 2021.
"The fall in soybeans comes mainly from the
low demand for US exports from China
, due to internal problems in its economy," began explaining Belén Maldonado, market analyst at the Rosario Stock Exchange.
"Added to the fact that a large South American harvest is expected, given that despite the drop in Brazilian production, the increase in Argentine production would more than compensate for it," he added.
Settlements
After a 2023 marked by drought, this year the pace of field liquidations began in a better way.
In January, companies in the agricultural sector settled US$ 1,522 million, which represents an increase of 64% compared to the same month in 2023 and an improvement of 22% compared to December 2023.
This was indicated in the latest report from the Chamber of the Oil Industry of the Argentine Republic (CIARA) and the Center of Cereal Exporters (CEC).