As of: February 7, 2024, 5:13 a.m
By: Sonja Ruf
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A new president is elected in Azerbaijan.
But nothing will change about the incumbent.
Ilham Aliyev does not have to fear opposition.
Baku – On Wednesday (February 7th) the people of Azerbaijan are called upon to elect a new president.
The election was originally planned for 2025. According to South Caucasus expert Marcel Röthig, incumbent President Ilham Aliyev justified the move forward by saying that the head of state needs new legitimacy after the conquest of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in September 2023
.
Röthig heads the South Caucasus office of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Tbilisi.
Ilham Aliyev, who was born in Baku and later received a doctorate in political science, took over the presidency from his father in the country on the Caspian Sea in 2003 and has since won every election in the authoritarian country according to the democracy index.
International election observers often described the election in the country with a population of ten million as not free or fair.
In power for 20 years and wants even longer: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at an informal meeting of heads of state in St. Petersburg, Russia.
© Imago/Itar-Tass
President Aliyev gets re-elected in Azerbaijan
This also includes the fact that, according to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung,
Aliyev
is overwhelming the last independent media in the country with a series of arrests in the run-up to the current election.
At least 13 members of the press have been arrested so far.
This time too, opposition members and external media employees suspect that the election is primarily intended to secure Aliyev's power.
From the outside, it seems clear that Aliyev has no fear of competition in the presidential election in Azerbaijan.
According to an OSCE report, the entire competition has publicly supported the incumbent president in recent weeks.
Röthig also suspects that the true motives in addition to Aliyev's statements are of a diverse nature: "I believe [...] that the causes lie deeper."
In addition to everything else, Röthig also believes that economic reasons for bringing the election forward are conceivable: “I think you are bringing the election forward [...] and creating new legitimacy because you know that the economic and social situation may change in one or two years According to Röthig, Aliyev avoids “having to hold elections in a situation where breaking points become even more visible than they currently are.”
Aliyev's popularity driver: The military conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023
After the complete reconquest of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict region, Aliyev was able to demonstratively present himself as a powerful leading figure.
The region's territorial affiliation has been disputed for years.
Although Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan under international law, it is predominantly inhabited by people from Armenia.
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After 1991, the area was largely controlled by Armenia, and after 2020 it was increasingly controlled by Azerbaijan.
After Azerbaijan took over the area militarily within a few days in 2023, hundreds of thousands of the largely ethnic Armenian residents fled.
According to Germany Trade&Invest,
Azerbaijan's gross domestic product was
$47.1 billion in 2023, which is relatively high in comparison (Germany: $4.1 billion).
However, per capita it is only 4.6 billion US dollars (Germany: 48.6 billion US dollars).
The state oligarchic corporate structures in the country, which are based almost exclusively on the main fossil export goods of oil and gas, are held responsible for this.
Overall, the country has high levels of social inequality, high inflation and lower economic growth.
President Aliyev must worry about the future of Azberbaijan
According to Röthig, the government of Azerbaijan considers the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh to be largely resolved since the military conquest, despite international concerns and efforts.
Nevertheless, the incumbent president was able to draw a lot of domestic political capital from this conflict.
For this reason and because of the difficult conditions, most experts assume that Aliyev will win the early election.
However, if this external 'problem' disappears in the future, Aliyev will have to think again about the political challenges facing his country and about securing his own power.
This may mean that repression within Azerbaijan could continue to intensify in the future.
(Sonja Ruf)