As of: February 7, 2024, 9:30 a.m
By: Lisa Mahnke
Comments
Press
Split
According to polls, Biden could lead if Trump is convicted.
It is uncertain whether this will actually happen.
Trump delays, Biden is unpopular.
Washington, DC – Donald Trump could be brought down by a court conviction in the upcoming presidential election.
In an
NBC News
poll, Trump was initially five percentage points ahead of Joe Biden with 47 percent, who would get 42 percent in a hypothetical duel in the US election.
However, when the survey asked again about a potential conviction, the tables turned: Biden was just ahead of Trump's 43 percent in the question with 45 percent.
Particularly for people with Latino backgrounds and those between the ages of 18 and 34, conviction for a crime made a significant difference.
But even among respondents classified as Republicans, Trump lost seven percent on the second question and Biden gained two percent, in contrast to the results without conviction.
Hope justified by survey?
Trump delays trials
Trump has repeatedly described the charges as “political contract killing”.
Things could get tight for the ex-president, who is accused of 91 crimes, if it weren't for the delays in the trial.
The Trump cases are at various points, but the delays could prevent a conclusion before the presidential election.
Republican pollster Bill McInturff warned , according to
NBC News
, that swing respondents still have a negative view of Biden and a majority want a Congress controlled by Republicans.
He questioned whether so many people would really switch to Biden if he were convicted.
In the NBC poll, with the aim of neutrality, there is a Republican and a Democratic camp.
Biden cannot rest on the results of the survey.
A similar result in reality is uncertain.
© IMAGO/ABACAPRESS/Pool/Ting Shen
The host of
NBC's "
Meet the Press," Kristen Welker, was also less optimistic: "A little groundbreaking, but still incredibly close."
Elsewhere,
NBC
referred to the margin of error, which was +/- 3.1 percent is assessed.
The survey was conducted within four days (January 26-30) with 1,000 registered voters.
The two percent lead in the survey could therefore just be a statistical inaccuracy.
Biden more unpopular as president than ever - Trump remains popular
For Biden, the poll showed a reversal of the trend that brought him into office in 2020.
In terms of the economy, borders and migration, but also competence and efficiency, Trump was clearly ahead of Biden in this survey.
Less than 30 percent of voters surveyed support his policies on the war in Israel.
It's a trend with history, the war in Gaza in particular has been giving Biden a headache for a long time.
Overall, NBC found the lowest approval rate in his entire presidential term - the current US president achieved 37 percent in the survey.
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While Biden was losing confidence, Trump was able to maintain his popularity.
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt was concerned by the results of the survey: “Compared to 2020, Biden has declined in every respect.
Worst of all, the belief that Biden will be more up to the task - the main tenet of the Biden candidacy - has evaporated." However, he did not give up hope yet: "Biden can take solace in the fact that we will meet in January and not in October 2024.
In this early phase of the cycle, attitudes can change.”
(lismah)