It is said that soy is Peronist.
And for now that statement is being fulfilled to the letter.
Mauricio Macri already suffered it in his management.
And now it's Javier Milei's turn.
On December 11, the day after the President's inauguration, in the Chicago market, soybeans were trading at US$490 and today they closed at US$436 (the lowest price since December 2021), which represents a drop of 11%.
As explained by
Catalina Ferrari
, a grain analyst, soybeans in Chicago have been trading downward in recent weeks,
pressured by the progress of the harvest in Brazil (the main producer worldwide) and by the forecast of good production since Argentina
.
Added to this, he added, is another bearish fundamental, which is China, not only because of its interest in the Brazilian supply, but also because of next week's holidays in that country for the lunar new year.
Looking at what may come, the grain analyst indicated that "
it is expected that there may be some more declines
" if it is confirmed that the drop in soybean production in Brazil is not as significant as expected.
Average price of soybeans from 2003 to date.
According to the analysis of the Grassi brokerage (in nominal dollar),
the average price of soybeans in the Milei era (almost two months) is so far US$460
.
While during Alberto Fernández's 4 years, the average price was US$483 (the maximum peak reached US$652).
Meanwhile, the average value in Mauricio Macri's management was US$330.
Going further back, and analyzing the Kirchner governments, Néstor, in his 2003-2007 mandate, the average price of the crop was US$254. While in the first term of Cristina Kirchner, it was US$425 and the second , of US$ 466.
The good news for the Libertad Avanza government is that
soybean production will grow strongly
after the fierce drought that affected production last year.
It was estimated in January about 52 million tons versus 21 million in the previous cycle.
In any case, now the harvest could be smaller due to the heat wave and the lack of rain in the last two weeks that harmed the development of the oilseed.
According to the Rosario Stock Exchange,
the extreme week has already caused batch losses and a drop in the potential for premium soybeans of 10 to 30%.
The soybean complex
is the main generator of foreign currency in the country.
In 2023, despite the drought, it maintained first place.
It was exported for US$ 13,000 million, 44% less than in 2022.
Local prices
Analyst Catalina Ferrari highlighted that since the current government took office to date, the price of soybeans has been declining in the local market.
In the case of the available price, the quote went from US$370 to US$.
On the one hand, as he explained, there was a drop due to the devaluation of the exchange rate that put pressure on prices in dollars, and, on the other, the good harvest outlook for the 2023/24 cycle.
The latter is also part of what is reflected in the price of the harvest position - May 24 -, which reaches US$ 285 versus US$ 323 as of December 11, 2023. "The good pace of sowing, added to the good condition of local crops caused declines in the Argentine market, also accompanying the fall in international prices," he said.