Mathieu Gallard is research director at Ipsos France.
LE FIGARO. - For the first time since her entry into the Figaro Magazine barometer, Marine Le Pen comes in first place: 40% of respondents “wish to see her play an important role in the months and years to come”. Furthermore, a poll for Valeurs Actuelles places her in the lead in the event of a second round against Gabriel Attal in 2027. Can we establish a comparison between her pre-campaign and that of François Mitterrand before 1981?
Mathieu GALLARD. -
It is true that the gap between François Mitterrand's campaign in 1974 - very marked on the left with the support of the PCF, from the first round - and that of 1981 - much more consensual, with the slogan "Quiet strength " - is interesting.
In certain respects it is reminiscent of Marine Le Pen's strategy.
We remember that in 2022, his campaign was focused on purchasing power rather than immigration, insecurity or identity, issues abandoned to Éric Zemmour.
But she also carried out a field campaign, avoiding large meetings and preferring trips to small towns and villages.
It was a very different campaign from those of 2012 and 2017. In the case of François Mitterrand and Marine Le Pen, this is part of a strategy of de-demonization, or in any case of normalization.
But be careful: it is not because this type of strategy worked for Mitterrand in the past, and that he seems to be supporting the National Rally currently, that this will necessarily result in a success for the RN candidate in 2027.
When the French get used to a candidate, does that benefit said candidate?
I think the first rule in politics is that there are no rules.
Or at least the rules change over time.
Of course, François Mitterrand was a candidate several times before his election in 1981. But other personalities applied several times, obtained honorable results, without succeeding in being elected: Arlette Laguiller, Jean-Marie Le Pen , François Bayrou... Conversely, Emmanuel Macron was elected in 2017 without the French having had a long period of getting used to his personality, his positioning or his method.
If Marine Le Pen is elected in 2027, I don't think it will be because the French have gradually become accustomed to the idea of her entering the Élysée.
It is firstly because they will recognize themselves in her program, that they will consider that she has the essential qualities to access the presidency and that they will judge that her party has the shoulders to govern the country.
The right had claimed that Russian tanks would land in Paris in the event of a victory for the left in 1981. Mitterrand, is this also a symbol of the failure of the demonization strategy?
François Mitterrand's problem before 1981 was not his own demonization.
It was the demonization of the left in a Cold War context with, in France, a Communist Party dominant within the left.
Between 1945 and 1978, the PCF always came first in the left, at least in votes if not in seats, during the legislative elections.
When, during the legislative elections of 1978, the PS (25.1%) came clearly ahead of the PCF (20.7%) then, when in the first round of the presidential election of 1981 François Mitterrand (25.9%) was ahead largely George Marchais (15.4%), this shows the centrist electorate - very anti-communist - that the hypothesis of a left dominated by the PCF coming to power is fading away.
Unlike what happened in 1974, a limited but decisive part of this electorate decided to vote for the socialist candidate in the second round of the presidential election.
This leads to the first alternation since 1958. The election of François Mitterrand is therefore above all the demonization of his camp thanks to the loss of influence of the main factor of demonization, communism.
Even if the rise in power of candidate Mitterrand was clearly highlighted by the successive polls in the run-up to the election, the public remained convinced until the vote of the victory of VGE...Are we in a similar situation?
In any case, we are in a situation where a large number of commentators seem convinced that Marine Le Pen's victory in 2027 is probable, if not almost certain.
It is still surprising in a context where many handicaps still weigh on the National Rally and its leader.
Voting intention polls do not give her a clear lead in the second round either.
It is all the more paradoxical since one of the old favorites of the same commentators is that the polls carried out too far in advance of the presidential election do not make it possible to predict the winner.
In fact, we are in a situation where, whether on the part of these commentators or part of the general public, a new defeat for Marine Le Pen in the presidential election would almost be a surprise.
Obviously, I have no idea what will happen in 2027, but it shows how far he has come since his first candidacy in 2012, when the possibility of his victory was not even considered.