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The Republican primaries in the USA are in full swing.
Trump is so far ahead of his competitor Haley.
How could she turn things around?
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley tried to move on from a humiliating setback in Nevada on Wednesday.
There she was roundly defeated in an unusual primary that highlighted her formidable challenges to Donald Trump and reignited questions about her long-term prospects in the race.
The former UN ambassador focused on the Super Tuesday elections in early March, which she hopes will turn her faltering candidacy around - including in California, where she planned to hold a rally late Wednesday.
The event came a day after the Republican primary in Nevada, where voters, with the help of Trump's well-organized supporters, chose the "none of these candidates" option by a margin of more than 2-1 over Haley - the only major candidate.
For Haley, fundamental things need to change in the US electorate
No delegates to the nominating convention were at stake in the Nevada election, and the "none" option served as a placeholder of sorts for former President Trump, who skipped the election in favor of Thursday's convention.
But it was a sharp rebuke to his last remaining Republican rival that underscored her extremely narrow path to the Republican nomination.
"I don't think there's a path unless there's something significant changing in the electorate, which would require something changing with Trump - and that's not a strategy," Republican strategist Rob Stutzman said Wednesday .
“If it does, we’ve been waiting for eight years for it to work.”
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Stutzman said it would take “an extraordinary result in South Carolina,” Haley’s home state, for Haley to stay in the race until Super Tuesday.
Polls show Haley trailing Trump well ahead of the Palmetto State's Feb. 24 primary.
Rules for the US presidential election changed in favor of Trump
Although she vowed to continue her campaign, the Nevada result raised questions about whether Haley's campaign has long-term viability.
After South Carolina, they'll turn their attention to Michigan later this month and the 15 states and one U.S. territory that vote on Super Tuesday on March 5, which includes a slew of delegates in expensive-to-woo areas in larger states like Texas and California belongs.
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Not only do the polls in many of these contests show Trump as the overwhelming frontrunner, Trump-aligned GOP party leaders long ago shaped the rules in many of these contests to favor the former president.
Meanwhile, he and Haley are competing for the 1,215 delegates needed for the nomination.
Trump is expected to capture the most delegates in Thursday's Nevada primary, and unlike Haley, who bypassed the convention, he recently held an event in that state.
His advisers call Haley's efforts a "deception tour" and argue that to win she would need to reshape the Republican electorate in the coming states in historic ways - especially by attracting independents or other voters who rarely turn out in primaries.
Trump's victory over Haley in the primaries is all but certain
Trump aides, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy, said that even as the campaign models the potential delegate count for Trump and Haley in the upcoming contests using what they see as the best-case scenario for Haley - a repeat of her strong performance in New Hampshire - Trump would still clinch the nomination by March 19.
“She has no path to the nomination, no matter how many Democrats she tries to convince,” Trump spokesman Steven Cheung said of Haley.
Copy of The Washington Post_Template (5).jpg © Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post
Haley's allies on Wednesday sought to dismiss Nevada as an exceptional state where the party had shaped the process in Trump's favor - repeating Haley's campaign manager Betsy Ankney's claim that the campaign had "not a dime" or "not an ounce of energy" in the state have issued.
Fred Zeidman, one of Haley's earliest and most influential donors, said the result in Nevada should not have surprised anyone because Trump's supporters are determined to ensure he becomes the presidential nominee and Haley is the only opponent remaining.
“This is the person they must defile.
They have to try to force her out of the campaign or put her in as bad a light as possible,” he said, adding: “There’s still a lot of money flowing into Nikki’s coffers.”
Haley wants to continue in the primaries at least until Super Tuesday
Despite deep doubts within her own party about whether she has a chance of winning the nomination, and despite calls from members of Congress and party leaders for her to drop out, Haley and her allies have indicated that she wants to stay in the race at least through the Super Tuesday elections .
The former South Carolina governor planned to hold a voter rally in Los Angeles on Wednesday evening while she was busy fundraising in California.
The Haley campaign said it raised $1.7 million in California this week.
Aides said Haley had her best fundraising month ever in January.
Ankney argued that this was partly due to small donors excited by polls showing Haley as a stronger competitor than Trump in a neck-and-neck race with President Biden.
Although the campaign has not yet run ads in Super Tuesday states, Ankney argued that Haley is "the last standing between the American people and the rematch that no one wants when Trump takes on Biden," and that the Campaign has the means to “go the distance”.
Haley's supporters say her path to Super Tuesday depends on her outperforming in South Carolina and Michigan.
Haley's political allies are turning away from her in South Carolina
“These games are ultimately primarily momentum games.
And if Nikki proves she has the momentum, a rising tide will lift the boats, so to speak, in all states," said Mark Harris, chief strategist at pro-Haley SFA Inc. He added that the states that have "the most "low-hanging fruit" that are primaries that are either open or semi-open - allowing participation by independents and other voters - and those that are "more suburban than rural in flavor."
Trump is sure of Republican applause, but his media production in New Hampshire failed in the very last few meters.
© AFP
In a recent Washington Post poll of potential Republican voters in the South Carolina primary, where Haley served as governor, Trump led Haley 58 percent to 32 percent.
Many of the state's top elected officials have lined up to support Trump, even those who owe much of their political success to Haley - including Sen. Tim Scott, whom she appointed to the Senate, and Rep. Nancy Mace, for whom Haley stood up for herself and saved her from a challenger supported by Trump.
Her allies in the state point to Haley's popularity as governor and her narrow victory in her first run for governor as evidence that she can narrow her lead over Trump.
“No one thought she could win.
Everyone said it was stupid of her to stay in the race.
Everyone said she should back off.
“What does that sound like — right now, right?” said South Carolina state Sen. Tom Davis, a Haley supporter.
“Not going anywhere” – Haley wants to continue despite Trump’s looming victory in South Carolina
Asked if she would continue her campaign in the event of a second-place finish in South Carolina, Haley told reporters last Thursday: “We’re not going anywhere.
It's just about closing that gap.
I'm not going anywhere.
We have a country to save and I am determined to keep going all the way.
As long as we can continue to close that gap.”
Michigan may present an even greater challenge for Haley. Jason Roe, a Michigan-based GOP strategist and former executive director of the Michigan Republican Party, predicted that Haley's path in Michigan will be similar to that of her "almost groundless" loss in Nevada designated.
The state's delegates are awarded in a two-part process, similar to Nevada, where 16 of the 55 delegates are awarded based on primary election results and the remaining 39 are awarded based on the convention vote.
“In a kind of convention dynamic, Donald Trump is 20 steps ahead of everyone else in the field,” Roe said.
“I think Michigan is as irrelevant as Nevada.
I mean, there are more ways to embarrass yourself than to give an impulse.
Haley's aides have frequently pointed out that 11 of the 16 Super Tuesday contests are open or semi-open primaries in which the former South Carolina governor could expand the electorate beyond the Republican base, including key destinations such as Virginia, Texas, Maine, Massachusetts , North Carolina and Vermont.
Haley performs best with more highly educated people
They find that Haley has consistently performed well among college-educated voters and in suburbs that Republicans have struggled to win over in recent cycles.
That could give Haley a chance to win delegates in the dense suburbs of North Carolina and Texas.
The Lone Star State awards both at-large delegates and delegates by congressional district.
Still, competing on Super Tuesday in so many states, some of which have very expensive media markets and complex delegate-collection rules, will be expensive, especially as Haley faces a barrage of attacks from Trump's well-funded efforts.
In California, for example, Trump is consistently above 50 percent in the polls.
Under new rules adopted last year, the former president could receive all of the state's 169 delegates - more than any other state - if he receives more than 50 percent of the statewide vote on March 5.
Wells reported from Washington.
To the authors
Maeve Reston
is a national political reporter for The Washington Post covering the 2024 presidential race and Western politics.
She joined the Post in 2023 after covering politics and five presidential campaigns at CNN, the Los Angeles Times, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and the Austin American-Statesman.
Dylan Wells
is a campaign reporter at The Washington Post.
She previously covered Congress and campaigns at USA Today, National Journal Hotline and CNN.
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English on February 8, 2024 at the “Washingtonpost.com” - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.