As of: February 8, 2024, 5:04 p.m
By: Bona Hyun
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Press
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It is already clear that the traffic light will have to reckon with problems in the budget again.
Even in 2025, the government won't have the money to spare.
Berlin – After the budget crisis is before the budget crisis: the 2025 budget could become another big test for the traffic light.
According to the Federal Ministry of Finance, there is a double-digit billion gap in the budget plans for 2025.
For next year it could be that the traffic lights have to turn red in several places.
Traffic light could threaten another budget crisis in 2025
Due to the ruling from Karlsruhe on the traffic light budget, the government had to make savings in many areas.
With the supplementary budget, the debt brake anchored in the Basic Law must be suspended again for the fourth year in a row.
“The effects of the shock will continue to have an impact in 2023 and represent an extraordinary disruption to the economic situation,” said the traffic light’s wording.
Thoughtful in the Bundestag: Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) and Finance Minister Christian Lindner on the government bench.
© IMAGO
The Bundestag belatedly passed the budget financing law presented by the government on February 2nd.
The austerity measures that the government had decided on for the 2024 budget caused dissatisfaction.
Just think of the farmers' protests over the abolition of agricultural diesel subsidies or the early abolition of the environmental bonus for electric vehicles.
Flying is also becoming more expensive.
Specifically, the tax is expected to rise by almost a fifth to between 15.53 euros and 70.83 euros per passenger from May 1, 2024, depending on the final destination of the trip.
Gaps in the budget – also in 2025: burden of financing green electricity
But that's not enough.
The next financial challenges could already be looming in 2025.
In the area of energy transition, the financing gap could be larger than expected.
The FDP fears that financing green electricity could place a heavy burden on the federal government's resources.
According to the FDP's energy policy spokesman Michael Kruse, a further fall in electricity prices is imminent, meaning that green electricity operators could find themselves in an emergency.
For 2024, the federal government plans to make compensation payments to the EEG account amounting to 10.6 billion euros.
According to Kruse's new calculation, this is far from enough;
it would have to be 27.5 billion euros.
At the beginning of 2024, CO₂ prices rose.
This means that the debate about climate money has intensified again.
The traffic light coalition had declared the introduction of the money as a social compensation that should not be introduced until the next legislative period.
According to the FDP parliamentary group, the introduction of climate money should be possible as early as 2025.
Budget 2025: Concept for basic child security will come into force
The concept for child benefit will also come into force in 2025.
The introduction of basic child protection will require a total of 7.5 billion euros per year from 2025.
In autumn 2023, Federal Family Minister Lisa Paus (Greens) quantified the exact effects of the planned basic child welfare from 2025 for the first time.
Accordingly, children at risk of poverty could receive benefits of 530 euros for the smallest and up to 636 euros for the oldest, Paus told the
Editorial Network Germany (RND)
.
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It is also known that the basic child benefit will consist of a guaranteed amount and an additional amount.
This sum is intended to bundle some social benefits for children such as child benefit, child tax allowance or child allowance and to flow to families without having to apply for them individually.
Budget crisis could continue in 2025: Traffic light has to postpone stock pension
Plans are also needed to overcome the challenges of statutory pensions.
The traffic light coalition plans to use the pension package to secure an existing holding line for the pension level of 48 percent in relation to wages in the long term.
On average, pensioners should receive at least 48 percent of their previous salary as a pension.
This so-called holding line currently applies to the security level of the statutory pension until 2025. The new pension package is intended to create a legal basis for the period after that.
Pension package II also includes plans for a stock pension (generational capital), which is intended to help relieve the burden on pension insurance in the long term.
The government had originally planned to fill the so-called generation capital with ten billion euros from 2024 in order to secure the financing of the statutory pension.
The stock pension was one of the most important projects for the FDP.
Budget crisis 2025: Special funds are not sufficient for sustainable strengthening
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) also sees a great need for investment in the Bundeswehr and wants a higher defense budget.
It is already clear: the Bundeswehr needs more money for its military realignment.
The Bundeswehr was able to use the special fund to finance purchases that had been delayed for years, such as the purchase of new fighter jets, armored personnel carriers and ammunition.
However, this is not enough to sustainably strengthen the armed forces and build an efficient defense industry, warn several industry representatives in the
Handelsblatt.
(bohy)