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Cooling towers of a brown coal-fired power plant in Bergheim-Niederaußem, Germany, emit fumes.
© Alex Kraus/Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) -- The European Union's goal of cutting 90% of emissions by 2040 is its most ambitious step yet to keep global warming below 1.5°C.
The plan recommended by the European Commission would put the world's largest trading bloc at the forefront of global climate efforts and require a significant transformation of the economy and trade.
Nevertheless, it is likely to be hotly debated among member states and the general public - particularly as the region lags behind on its existing targets.
Here's everything you need to know about the new milestone on the EU's path to reducing emissions by mid-century.
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The goal
The 90% target recommended by the EU executive on Tuesday will further fuel the debate over EU climate policy.
The EU already has two legally binding targets - cutting emissions by 55% this decade (it is not yet on track) and achieving zero emissions by mid-century.
The idea is that the 2040 target provides an important strategic guidepost, but it will be up to the next Commission to put more meat on the bones after the EU-wide elections in June.
While the current Commission favors 90% as the most cost-effective way to reach net zero, it has analyzed three possible reduction targets: 80%, 85-90% and 90-95%.
Bringing efforts forward has advantages: it will help wean the EU off fossil fuels more quickly and make it less vulnerable to price shocks.
The overall cost could also be cheaper compared to inaction.
The price tag
But that doesn't mean it will be cheap.
The EU estimates it will need to invest around 1.5 trillion euros ($1.6 trillion) every year between 2031 and 2040.
It's not entirely clear where all the money will come from, but a significant amount is already sloshing around the economy, helping to finance fossil fuels, for example.
The most ambitious option analyzed by the EU found that the region could save around €2.8 trillion in spending on oil, gas and coal by 2050.
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Financing will also come from national governments, although they have varying degrees of fiscal leeway.
A key question for the next Commission will be whether it decides to take on new debt, as it did at the height of the Covid-19 crisis.
It is clear that the private sector will have to raise a large part of the money.
Technological solutions
A key difference with the 2030 target is that the 2040 target aims for a “net” emissions reduction.
The use of fossil fuels for energy production is reduced by four-fifths, but still plays a role.
This means that carbon capture technology must contribute to this.
By 2050, up to 450 million tons of carbon dioxide must be captured per year - this is equivalent to the emissions balance of Poland and Denmark combined.
According to BloombergNEF, global carbon capture and storage capacity was just 50 million tons in 2022.
A range of additional technologies will be needed, including green hydrogen for industry, batteries to decarbonise the electricity grid and more solar and wind turbines.
It is questionable how well European manufacturers are able to meet this demand in the face of global competition.
The pursuit of clean technology also depends on critical raw materials, a market currently dominated by China.
The plan refers to nuclear power as a “complement” to renewable energies.
In addition, an industrial alliance is being launched to promote so-called small modular reactors.
What to do with agriculture?
The EU has already put in place most of the regulations it needs to decarbonise its energy, heating and transport sectors, but there is still a big stone in the plank.
Europe has already had a taste of how difficult it is to make agriculture more environmentally friendly.
A plan to restore nature was almost torpedoed by an alliance of agricultural lobbies and center-right parties in parliament.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she would withdraw her efforts to halve pesticide use because it had become a “symbol of polarization.”
Recently, farmers across Europe have blocked roads and driven tractors into capitals to protest against bureaucracy and falling farm prices.
At the same time, “business as usual” would push the EU’s climate goals into the distance.
Communication 2040 contains almost no details about how agriculture will contribute to the transition, after proposals were deleted in earlier drafts seen by Bloomberg.
Dietary changes and other civic obligations
Previous references to incentives to change citizens' diets - such as eating less beef, which releases huge amounts of methane into the atmosphere - have also been deleted.
These omissions highlight the EU's broader challenge for the next decade.
“Simple” solutions to decarbonization are already being implemented, such as switching to a cleaner energy system.
Those that need further development could be more difficult, e.g.
B. convincing households to insulate their homes, buy electric cars, fly less or change their diet.
Whether the EU can truly deliver a “just” transition - a term repeated ten times throughout the text - remains to be seen.
By John Ainger with support from Ewa Krukowska.
©2024 Bloomberg LP
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English on February 6, 2024 at the “Washingtonpost.com” - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals