As of: February 8, 2024, 5:07 a.m
By: Patrick Mayer
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NATO states warn of a Russian attack on the defense alliance.
A report speculates about Vladimir Putin's possible actions.
Suwalken – They all have something in common.
Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD).
The Norwegian commander.
The Swedish Minister for Civil Protection.
The Polish Foreign Minister.
They all warn of a possible war by Russia against the NATO defense alliance.
After NATO warnings: analysis speculates about possible Russian attack
The Ukraine war serves as a warning example: While Kremlin autocrat Vladimir Putin has suffered setback after setback in the Black Sea and Crimea, Poland has now declared that it is preparing for an impending military conflict with Moscow.
The Daily Telegraph
from Great Britain described in an analysis published on February 6th how an escalation between Russian forces and NATO could unfold.
And where the Russians were supposedly most likely to attack the alliance.
Everything kept in the subjunctive.
Ukraine War: Is Russia preparing to mobilize hundreds of thousands of soldiers?
In a first step, Putin will mobilize up to 200,000 soldiers for a new major offensive in Ukraine in the spring of 2024.
What fits with this assessment: “99 percent of the population” is defending Russia in the fight against its “enemies,” said Putin, according to
Bild
, on February 2nd at the “Everything for Victory” event in the city of Tula, around 150 kilometers south of Moscow.
There was a “nationwide movement,” Putin said at the time.
The Russian leader “conjured up a comprehensive social and economic mobilization of Russia that was reminiscent of the total mobilization of the Soviet Union during the Second World War,” wrote the experts at the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
in an assessment of Putin’s sensational speech .
The
ISW
also recently brought a possible major Russian offensive on the city of Kharkiv into the debate about the course of the war.
Ultimately, Putin wants to demonstrate alleged successes on the battlefield in the context of the (undemocratic) Russian presidential election (March 15-17).
Conflict with NATO: Analysis fears Russian cyber attacks on the Baltics
At the end of January, the US broadcaster
CNN
also reported heavy fighting in the area in northeastern Ukraine where the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions meet.
An indication of such an offensive?
As
The Daily Telegraph
further writes, in a second escalation stage with NATO, the Russians could launch cyber attacks against the Baltic states in the summer of 2024 and stir up unrest among the Russian minorities there.
In Estonia, with its approximately 1.3 million inhabitants, for example, an estimated 25 percent of the population are said to be ethnic Russians.
In a third step, Russia would use the unrest in the Baltic countries as a pretext to conduct military exercises in Belarus and increase the troop presence in its exclave Kaliningrad (estimated population one million) on the Baltic Sea (see map above).
Striking: On January 25th, Putin visited the Baltic Federal Immanuel Kant University in the city of the same name, Kaliningrad (around 490,000 inhabitants), just as NATO members began to fear a military confrontation with the Moscow regime almost every day to warn.
Moscow ruler: the Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin.
© IMAGO / ITAR-TASS
Kaliningrad exclave: Russia could increase troop numbers on NATO borders
Russia's Baltic Fleet is stationed in Kaliningrad, in the immediate vicinity of the NATO states Poland and Lithuania.
In December 2023, the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP)
published a study with the alleged number of Russian warships in the Baltic Sea.
According to
CEIP
, a “single diesel-electric attack submarine,” five guided-missile destroyers, one guided-missile frigate, thirty-five smaller patrol and littoral combat ships, and thirteen amphibious landing craft are stationed at Kaliningrad, formerly Konigsberg.
The Russian regime could trigger a border conflict right here in the Suwalki Gap between Poland and the Baltics, writes
The Daily Telegraph
.
The Suwalki Corridor stretches 104 kilometers near the small Polish town of Suwalken between Kaliningrad and Belarus, which is allied with the Kremlin.
The narrow section of land on the Polish-Lithuanian border is considered NATO's Achilles heel.
According to the analysis, in a fifth step Putin would decide whether he would ultimately dare to attack the western alliance territory.
It is at least a possible scenario that more and more EU politicians and NATO representatives are warning about.
(pm)