As of: February 8, 2024, 8:01 p.m
By: Christoph Elzer
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Too old, too senile, too unpopular – doubts are growing as to whether Joe Biden can stand up to Donald Trump in the US election.
But maybe there is a plan B.
Washington – Is the now 81-year-old US President Joe Biden really still fit enough to endure a tough election campaign against challenger Donald Trump and then another four-year term in office?
This question concerns not only potential voters, but also Biden's party colleagues before the 2024 US election.
Because the incumbent president's supposed missteps cause trust in him to waver again and again.
Just a few days ago, at a campaign event, Biden confused French President Emmanuel Macron with his predecessor François Mitterrand, who has now been dead for almost 30 years.
This is by no means the only bizarre mistake he has made in recent years.
He referred to Ukrainians as Iranians in a speech or read speech instructions from a teleprompter during a speech: “It is worth noting that the percentage of women who register and vote is regularly higher than that of men.
End of quote.
Repeat sentence.”
Candidates for the 2024 US election: Trump also regularly has strange misfires
It has long been clear to his political opponents that Biden must be senile - even though their own candidate Donald Trump, at 77, is only slightly younger than Biden and also allows himself a lot of strange lapses.
He recently confused his Republican challenger Nikki Haley with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Elsewhere he spoke of how, when he was elected US president in 2016, he had won “a fight that everyone said he couldn’t win” – namely against Barack Obama.
In fact, Hillary Clinton was his rival in the fight for the White House.
Unlike Biden, such mistakes don't seem to harm Trump.
In the post-truth age, his followers ignore the misfires of the self-proclaimed “very stable genius,” while in his opponent they are immediately declared a weakness that questions his ability to hold office.
This completely unequal view may seem illogical, but it has an effect.
Biden is perceived by significantly more Americans as “too old” for a second term than Trump.
Will Michelle Obama run against Donald Trump instead of Joe Biden?
(Archive photo from 9/11 memorial service) © dpa/Shawn Thew
In exactly this situation, former First Lady Michelle Obama is now fueling speculation that has been secretly making the rounds in Washington for several months.
Speaking about the election, Obama said on Jay Shetty's “On Purpose” podcast: “I'm very afraid of what could happen.
[…] We cannot take this democracy for granted.
And sometimes I worry that we do.
[…] These are the things that don't let me sleep." The Democrat is alluding to statements made by Trump, who announced that if he were re-elected he would act like a dictator against his opponents for a day.
Has Obama already announced his candidacy for the 2024 US election?
Preventing such efforts is important, said Obama.
But in all surveys, Donald Trump is currently clearly ahead of Joe Biden.
Only a criminal conviction for Trump could turn the tide, according to campaign experts.
But whether Trump will actually have to accept such a serious legal blow before the election on November 5th is currently completely uncertain.
The question therefore arises as to whether the Democrats are willing to put everything on this card.
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As early as autumn 2023, there was speculation about an alternative scenario in which Michelle Obama, rather than Joe Biden, would run against Donald Trump.
These speculations are now getting a double boost: on the one hand, candidacy plans are being interpreted into Obama's podcast statements and on the other hand, she is said to have already considered the idea of running for office in 2022, as was only made public a few days ago.
Cindy Adams, one of the most prominent society reporters in the USA, revealed in the
New York Post
that Michelle Obama met with some major hedge fund CEOs in New York in the summer of 2022 and is said to have announced: “I'm running and I ask for your support.”
Spectacular candidate change planned without a primary election?
That would be a 180-degree turn from Obama's repeated credo that she had no political ambitions.
In 2018 she even stated that she “doesn’t have the same passion for politics” as her husband.
But a lot of time has passed since then and the prospect of a second Trump term may have led to a rethink.
Liberal and conservative US media are now speculating about a spectacular change of candidates among the Democrats.
Either declared as a hope or conspiracy scenario.
Accordingly, Joe Biden would probably announce in May that he would not run for a second term for health reasons.
At this point, the primaries are long over and Trump is likely to be the official opposing candidate since Super Tuesday on March 5, 2024 at the latest.
In August, the Democrats would then nominate Michelle Obama as a replacement candidate at their nomination party conference and elect her presidential candidate with an overwhelming majority, without the usual internal party pre-election wars.
In the TV debates in September and October, the popular, comparatively young and rhetorically skilled Michelle Obama would compete against Donald Trump - a scenario in which many Democrats expect their party to win clearly, unlike if Biden appeared.
However, it would still be unclear who would run at Obama's side as vice-presidential candidate.
Biden's Vice President Kamala Harris would no longer play a role - on the one hand, a team of two black women does not make political sense and on the other hand, according to polls, Harris is even more unpopular than Biden.