Javier Milei will not call – in principle – a popular consultation to resolve the political crisis that caused the fall of the reform law.
At his “small table” it is considered a
high-risk
decision and would also open a debate with an uncertain ending.
Santiago Caputo transmitted it to his team yesterday:
“There has already been a plebiscite.
We got 56% support.”
The President gave signals in the same direction.
He was cautious in an intimate chat this week: “It's not yet under consideration.”
It happened 24 hours after
the night of fury
in Tel Aviv.
They say Milei slept little and interacted a lot with several ministers.
Guillermo Francos and Martín Menem made reports and Luis Caputo had to develop an urgent
adjustment plan
to face the mess.
Yesterday he dropped a bomb: cuts to transportation subsidies.
Santiago Caputo focused on the “vendetta plan” and Milei's most aggressive communications: “traitors,” “thieves,” “enemies of the people.”
Those qualifiers were the publishable ones.
On that night of anger, very harsh disqualifications were heard – in private – against the governors and legislators:
“They are extortionists, sons of…
. ”
The fight was due to multiple tantrums.
But Milei understood that what happened was central:
it complicates governance and fuels the idea that she does not have the capacity to implement her program in Argentina.
The “wolves” of Wall Street – and they are militant – support the libertarian's promises and plan.
The tough ones at the IMF too.
Milei himself boasts:
“They can't believe I'm tougher than them.”
But everyone – wolves and bureaucrats – always noticed one issue:
they sowed doubts and questioned the political viability of the measures.
It happens in every meeting with the outside world.
These issues arose from the first meeting in Manhattan.
It was when Juan Nápoli and Dario Epstein met with 80 bankers at the Gerardo Mato house.
Now Wall Street continues to ask: is this program bold, but does it have the necessary governance?
That is why what happened in Parliament hit the waterline.
He raised all the doubts of the restless investors.
The crisis in Deputies began to brew last Friday, as soon as the general approval ended.
That night the long intermission was agreed upon to open a final negotiation between the Casa Rosada and several governors.
The intention was to hold a meeting – on the weekend – between Milei and the leaders.
That got frustrated.
At that meeting, Martin Llaryora, Gustavo Saenz and Rolo Figueroa intended to guarantee funds in exchange for approval.
Milei decided not to negotiate anything.
He is convinced that – without law – life will be impossible for the provinces.
He repeats it privately:
“We are going to melt them down.”
There were emissaries from both sides, but it did not prosper.
In these negotiations, Miguel Pichetto raised a political request from the negotiating blocs.
He went to Francos.
And it was like this:
“Get Sturzenegger out of the way.
He is the typical idiot who complicates everything.”
But Federico Sturzenegger is well planted.
He has an office in Olivos and there is a personal symbiosis with Milei.
He could be a minister in case of a crisis.
Pichetto insisted and on Monday he spoke with Francos to set up a meeting between the governors and Caputo.
The head of Economy was tired.
He protested:
“All they want is money.”
The conversation fell apart.
Caputo had spoken with Milei before he boarded the flight to Israel.
The minister gave him a report that endorsed
the President's intransigence.
In that communication he told him that
“January closed with zero deficit”
and that the Casa Rosada could withstand the shock.
The minister says that the fuel tax offsets the fiscal package.
He speaks of a collection of 1.5% of GDP.
But the acceleration of inflation also makes their work easier: it has already liquefied – and strongly – expenses on salaries and pensions.
Caputo concluded:
“This way, Javier, we can sustain ourselves.
The provinces are complicated.”
Everything was heading towards a collision.
That's when there was a final reaction.
“Toto” decided to call Martín Llaryora personally.
But Córdoba was also burning.
Llaryora stated:
“They have inexperience, they are arrogant and they have no codes.”
Three times Llaryora did not answer his call.
The communication occurred on Caputo's fourth attempt.
The minister told Llaryora that the Income Tax would be reintroduced and the moratorium sanctioned.
They are funds for the provinces.
Caputo also
promised to seek compensation for the retirement fund.
So far it was going well, but Llaryora asked for guarantees that this was going to happen.
She warned:
“Twitter is of no use to me.”
Everything was played.
The experts knew that the session was failing.
The issue opened multiple versions.
Francos himself had to deny his resignation.
In the “red circle” they insist that
Mauricio Macri is leading his way out.
In public – the same – Macri “overreacts” his support for Milei.
Privately Mauricio insists that Milei must re-establish his Cabinet and
appoints Diego Santilli for that position.
He also criticizes – and a lot – the management of Nicolás Posse.
He says he is responsible for official inaction.
But his desires clash with the libertarian world.
Until now Milei has ignored her advice and moved forward with decisions that cause hives, such as the appointment of Daniel Scioli.
In Congress they say that the “Pichichi” will occupy more important positions in the Cabinet in the future.
Posse – alias “the Mute” – is part of Milei's small table.
Despite Macri's bombing,
he is very firm.
Posse interviewed CIA chief Williams Burns on Milei's behalf.
His mission to Washington was secretive.
She went to answer the doubts that exist in the White House about Milei's governability in Argentina and her disturbing connection with Donald Trump.
He also held a secret negotiation at the IMF.
Kristalina Georgieva demanded that she travel to approve the approval of the waivers and the crucial sending of funds to avoid default.
Rodrigo Valdez's team is concerned about exchange rate policy.
Fund bureaucrats criticize the minuscule 2% devaluation.
Clarín
confirmed that the staff would be demanding
a greater future adjustment of the official dollar.
Between the lines – IMF style – the issue was exposed in the report distributed by Kristalina's people.
Posse would have committed to one issue:
not to delay the exchange rate and devalue further if necessary.
Caputo admits that the pressure will begin.
But the minister is firm and says that the accounts close:
“The 2% devaluation is compatible with the program.”
He discussed the issue privately in a meeting alone with Domingo Cavallo.
It was two weeks ago.
Cavallo insists that this devaluation rate puts noise in the economy.
Caputo defended his numbers and predicted that inflation
“falls harder.”
Cavallo also monitors the fate of his pupil Osvaldo Giordano.
Cavallo and Juan Schiaretti recommended it to the ANSeS.
Yesterday Giordano worked normally.
She did not speak to the President and Milei will decide her fate after visiting the Pope.
Milei was very hot and was encouraged to confide in his inner circle:
“I don't have to throw him out.
Giordano should just leave office.”