Even though this February is a leap year and has 29 days, something that only happens once every four years, everything indicates that the ruling Semilla Movement party will not have time for the rest of the month—not even with that extra day— to position itself as a bench in the Guatemalan Congress, chair working committees and be another support for the country's new president, Bernardo Arévalo.
This is because it remains suspended as a party, which does not allow its deputies to be recognized as a bloc and forces them to occupy their seats as 'independents'.
Semilla, who brought Arévalo to power in August last year, won 23 seats of the 160 that make up the parliament for the 2024-2028 period.
This is their second term as the organization, created in 2018, placed only seven deputies in 2020. They now make up the third force in Congress by number, but since July they have been fighting a legal battle that they apparently are losing.
“There are things that we cannot do as rank-and-file deputies.
They even leave us without inspection and intermediation tools because we do not have a block leadership.
It tears us to pieces, the Semilla representative, Andrea Reyes, acknowledges in statements to EL PAÍS.
“We have been going around in circles at the courthouse since July 15.”
The provisional suspension of the party began on July 12, 2023, two weeks after Semilla's victory at the polls.
The measure was requested by the Public Ministry (MP) and authorized by the criminal judge included in the list of corrupt actors in the United States, Engel list, Fredy Orellana, and to date it remains in force thanks to the rulings of the Constitutional Court ( CC), the highest court in the country.
The measure was taken because, according to the MP, Semilla used false signatures to create the party, which generated an investigation that remains confidential and under the responsibility of the Special Prosecutor's Office against Impunity.
“We do not have the capacity to supervise”
“We do not have that board of directors that the Government needs to be able to live in peace.
Several ministers have told us that they need a lot of help with oversight because there is a lot of leftover from the previous Government and we do not have the capacity to do that,” added Deputy Reyes.
Representative Andrea Reyes poses for a portrait in Guatemala City on January 12, 2024. Mónica González Islas
The legal fight to isolate the ruling party was something that was already foreseen by both Arévalo, who said it in previous interviews with various media, and by his deputies who, since their electoral victory, began to file appeals against the suspension.
For the inauguration on January 14, the parliamentarians modified the agreement that had them in suspense and managed to be sworn in as a bench and chair the board of directors of the Legislature.
The move worked, but it lasted less than a week.
The panorama changed when the CC ordered them to repeat the election of the board of directors, where Samuel Pérez, deputy of Semilla, had remained as president.
The court then reiterated the suspension of the match.
“The VAMOS party and the UNE (National Unity of Hope) lead the working commissions, so I do not believe that this year anything can really be done at the Legislative level and, therefore, I believe that at the Executive level The achievements are also going to be limited,” said Luis Mack, political analyst.
difficult panorama
Deputy Reyes said that the provisional suspension is valid for one year, so it would end in July, although they will continue to defend themselves legally.
However, the time to join the four working committees that remain to be chosen and those they would like to be on expires on February 29 and, if by then they do not manage to appear as a bench, they will lose the opportunity until 2025.
“I would call this an awakening to the reality of a country that in the end is easier to win than to govern, and the Semilla party government is still in question.
What they have to do is live with that threat with that sector that wanted to stop them,” Mack added.
For his part, Edgar Ortiz, an expert lawyer in constitutional law, explained to EL PAÍS that “the times are not favorable” for Semilla, but that they have at least three paths that they could choose.
One, repeal or change the Organized Crime Law, which would get the suspension lifted;
two, change the law of Congress and allow independent deputies to form blocs;
and three, wait for Judge Orellana to resolve the unconstitutionality that was raised against him.
“The suspension is not eternal, although it could be extended, but they can take action with protections and they do have medium-term tools to reverse that suspension,” adds Ortiz.
For now, “they are going to lose the Finance commission, which is the most important for them.
That will give them a management of the [general National] Budget that is not as active as we would have liked to see,” Ortiz commented.
The lawyer has also presented amparos in this case in defense of Semilla, but they have been rejected.
According to Reyes, after the CC ordered the election of the board of directors to be repeated, the party tried again to be recognized as a bench, but they did not get the votes because the MP and the CC “threatened” the deputies of the other parties.
“The calls began coming from the CC number, so blatant, that it no longer allowed the knowledge of the bench as a bench to advance.
They told them that they were going to face lawsuits and that they were not going to get out of those lawsuits so easily because they couldn't be operating with Semilla,” he concluded.
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