Desde los operadores de Wall Street hasta los vendedores de automóviles y los compradores de viviendas, los estadounidenses están ansiosos por que la Reserva Federal empiece a bajar las tasas de interés y aligerar la pesada carga que soportan los prestatarios.
Se espera que la Reserva Federal lo haga este año, probablemente varias veces. La inflación, medida por su indicador preferido, aumentó en la segunda mitad de 2023 a un ritmo anual de alrededor del 2%, el nivel objetivo de la Fed. Sin embargo, esta semana, varios funcionarios del banco central subrayaron que no estaban listos para apretar el gatillo todavía.
¿Por qué, con la inflación casi conquistada y la tasa de interés oficial de la Reserva Federal en su nivel más alto en 22 años, no es ahora el momento de bajarla?
El riesgo de que los precios vuelvan a subir
La mayoría de los responsables de la política monetaria de la Reserva Federal se muestran optimistas en cuanto a que, aunque la economía y el mercado laboral sigan creciendo, las presiones inflacionistas continuarán enfriándose. Pero también advierten que la economía parece tan fuerte que existe un riesgo real de que los precios vuelvan a subir.
Y a algunos les preocupa que, si ahora bajan las tasas y la inflación vuelve a acelerarse, la Reserva Federal se vea obligada a dar marcha atrás y tenga que volver a subirlas.
"La historia cuenta muchas historias de falsas inflaciones", dijo Tom Barkin, presidente del Banco de la Reserva Federal de Richmond, en un discurso pronunciado el jueves.
La inflación parecía derrotada en 1986, señaló Barkin, cuando Paul Volcker era presidente de la Fed.
Jerome Powell, presidente de la FED. Foto: Bloomberg
"La Fed redujo las tasas, pero la inflación volvió a dispararse al año siguiente, lo que hizo que la Fed diera marcha atrás", dijo.
"Me encantaría evitar esa montaña rusa si podemos", dijo Barkin, uno de los 12 funcionarios de la Reserva Federal que votan sobre la política de tasas de interés este año.
Varios funcionarios han dicho que quieren más tiempo para ver si la inflación sigue remitiendo. Mientras tanto, señalan, la economía es lo suficientemente sólida como para prosperar sin recortes de tasas. El mes pasado, por ejemplo, los empresarios estadounidenses realizaron un gran número de contrataciones y la tasa de desempleo se mantuvo en el 3,7%.
"They will be glacial and take their time," says Steven Blitz, chief US economist at GlobalData TS Lombard.
"They're willing to say, 'We don't know, but we can afford to wait,
so let's wait.'"
The strength of the economy also raised questions about the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's 11 rate increases.
If rising interest rates barely slow the economy, some officials might conclude that rates should be kept high longer or that few cuts would be needed.
Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, told reporters Tuesday: "I don't think there's a
sense of urgency
. "
"I think at the end of this year, if things go as planned, we could start lowering rates."
However, their caution carries risks.
Right now, the economy appears headed toward a "soft landing," in which inflation would be defeated without causing a recession or high unemployment.
But the longer interest rates stay high, the greater the risk that many businesses and consumers will stop borrowing and spending, weakening the economy and potentially pushing it into a recession.
High rates could also compound the difficulties of banks saddled with poor-quality commercial real estate loans, which would be harder to refinance at higher rates.
The high cost of borrowing has become a headache for David Kelleher's Chrysler-Jeep dealership outside Philadelphia.
Just two and a half years ago, Kelleher recalls, his clients could get a car loan for under 3%.
Now, they're lucky if they get 5.5%.
Customers who three years ago paid $400 a month to rent a car now find that, with vehicle prices much higher and interest rates rising, their monthly payments are approaching $650.
The trend is pushing many of its customers to buy cheaper second-hand cars, or not at all.
"We need the government to address interest rates... and understand that it has met its goal of reducing inflation," Kelleher said.
"If interest rates can go down, I think we will start selling more cars."
Kelleher is likely to get his wish in May or June, when most economists expect the Federal Reserve to begin reducing its benchmark rate, which is now around 5.4%.
In December, all but two of the 19 policymakers involved in Fed policy debates said they expect the central bank to cut rates this year.
(Twelve of those 19 get to vote on rate policies each year.)
Prices under control, for now.
Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images/AFP
However, economic growth has accelerated since then.
In the final three months of last year,
the economy grew at an unexpectedly strong annual rate of 3.3%
.
Surveys of manufacturers and service providers, such as retailers, banks and shippers, also reported that business activity increased last month.
Taken together, the latest reports suggest that the economy may not be headed for a soft landing, but rather what some economists call a "non-landing."
By this they refer to a scenario in which the economy would remain robust and inflation a constant threat, potentially stuck above the Federal Reserve's target.
In this scenario, the Fed would feel obligated to keep rates at high levels for an extended period.
Powell said last week that while the Federal Reserve wants to see continued "strong growth,"
a strong economy threatens to drive up inflation.
"I think there is a risk that inflation will accelerate," Powell said.
"I think the biggest risk is that it stabilizes at a level significantly above 2%. That's why we're keeping our options open and not rushing."
Other officials insisted this week that the Federal Reserve is trying to balance the risk of cutting rates too soon - which could trigger a new spike in inflation - and keeping them too high for too long, which could trigger a recession.
"At some point, the continued cooling of inflation and labor markets may make it appropriate to reduce rates," Andrea Kugler, the newly appointed Fed governor, said Wednesday in her first public speech. "On the other hand, if the progress on disinflation stalls, it may be appropriate to keep the target range stable at its current level for longer."
Some analysts pointed to signs that the economy
is becoming more productive, or efficient,
allowing it to grow faster without necessarily increasing inflation.
However, productivity data is very difficult to measure, and any significant improvements will not be evident for a few years.
Still, "perhaps the economy can withstand higher interest rates than we thought in 2019, before the pandemic," says Eric Swanson, an economist at the University of California, Irvine.
If so,
that could not only delay the Fed's rate cuts
, but lead to fewer of them.
Fed officials continue to say they plan to cut rates perhaps three times this year, down from the five or six that some market analysts predict.