By Alex Seitz-Wald and Ben Kamisar -
NBC News
Washington is abuzz with fresh concerns about President Joe Biden's physical condition after a special counsel report released Thursday raised questions about his memory.
But Democrats have rallied around Biden, and despite the fantasies of some pundits and anxious Democrats, the president is almost certain to be the Democratic Party's nominee for as long as he wants him to be.
[“How the hell dare you?”: Biden reacts to prosecutor's report on classified papers case]
Both parties have moved away from the era when
insiders
in smoke-filled rooms could make decisions on their own at national conventions, and Biden has dominated every primary he has competed in so far.
No prominent Democrats have called for Biden to step aside and there are no known serious reservations about it.
In the modern era, a national party has never attempted to replace its candidate in an adversarial manner, in part because it knows it would likely fail.
The issue was raised with both sides in 2016, but neither took such drastic action.
The “Access Hollywood” tape, in which Trump is heard bragging about sexually assaulting women because "when you're a star they leave you," prompted some prominent Republican leaders to call for Donald Trump to be dropped, but then-president of the Republican National Committee, Reince Priebus, said that
“there are no such mechanisms.”
Meanwhile, Democratic National Committee acting chairwoman Donna Brazile wrote in her memoir that she “almost replaced” Hillary Clinton after the candidate collapsed during a 9/11 memorial service, before ultimately concluding: “I couldn't deliver.” my threat to replace her.”
Still, the Democratic National Committee's Bylaws do make provisions if the party's nominee is incapacitated or chooses to step aside.
An anti-Biden coup at the convention is theoretically possible, although highly unlikely.
So how would it work?
Is it too late for another Democratic candidate to enter the race?
So far, only a small handful of states have held Democratic presidential primaries.
But there is no longer
enough time for a new candidate to enter the race
and beat Biden anyway.
Filing deadlines for approximately 80% of upcoming contests have already expired and cannot be easily changed as they are set by state.
There are not enough delegates at stake in the remaining races where access to the polls is still open to obtain a majority.
Of course, a Democrat could choose to run as a write-in candidate (although not all states allow write-in participation).
And the rules of the Democratic Party can be changed.
As private organizations, the Democratic and Republican National Committees legally have wide discretion over how they select their candidates.
But Biden essentially controls the national party, as is standard practice for any party that controls the White House.
Any change to the party's nominating rules would go through the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee, packed with Biden allies, which essentially approved his controversial new 2024 presidential primary schedule, placing South Carolina ahead of New Hampshire, even though the committee did not expect to do so until the night before the vote.
What happens if Biden withdraws before the convention?
Biden has said he will stay in the race and there is no indication otherwise, but the only plausible scenario for Democrats to get a new nominee would be if Biden decided to drop out.
He could do so while serving out the remainder of his term in the White House, as Lyndon Johnson did in 1968.
If Biden were to withdraw between now and August, it would likely create a pitched battle at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
[Biden's forgetfulness and oversights were key to not being accused of the classified papers]
If Biden were to resign before winning a majority of Democratic delegates, it probably wouldn't make any difference.
It is unlikely that a new candidate trying to enter the race would win enough of the remaining votes and therefore would not be able to win enough delegates.
Ultimately, the decision would likely fall to convention delegates who were initially committed to Biden.
Joe Biden.Evan Vucci / AP
A majority of the roughly 4,000 pledged delegates is needed to win the party nomination.
Under recent reforms, the party's more than 700 superdelegates (Democratic lawmakers and dignitaries)
are allowed to vote only if no one wins a majority of pledged delegates on the first ballot,
so their votes could be crucial in a contested convention.
Biden would have some influence over the pledged delegates he won in the primaries, but ultimately they can vote however they want.
His unlikely primary rivals, Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., and self-help author Marrianne Williamson, who suspended her campaign this week, have not won any delegates so far.
And just because they've launched doesn't mean they're now at the front of the list in the event of a vacancy.
Could Democrats replace Biden against his will?
There is no evidence the party would consider a change without Biden's consent.
But even if they did, there is no mechanism for the national party to replace a candidate before the convention and certainly no way to anoint a chosen successor.
If large swathes of the Democratic Party were to lose faith in Biden, delegates to the national convention in August could, in theory, defect en masse.
Of course, they were chosen to be delegates because of their loyalty to Biden and pledged to support him at the convention.
But unlike many Republican delegates, Democratic delegates are not technically tied to their candidate.
Democratic National Committee rules allow delegates to “reflect in all good conscience the sentiments of those who elected them,” providing some wiggle room.
The party's statutes contain provisions for replacing the candidate in the event of a vacancy.
The measure is intended to be used in the event of death, resignation or incapacity, not to replace someone who does not wish to resign.
[Biden's health worries 76% of voters according to survey]
That was the measure Brazile considered invoking after Clinton's collapse two months before the 2016 election.
In her memoirs, published a year later, Brazile wrote that she was concerned “not only about Hillary's health but about her anemic campaign... so lacking in fighting spirit.”
“Perhaps switching candidates was a chance to win, to change the playing field in a way that would make Donald Trump hurried and unable to catch up,” she wrote, adding that she had been contacted by advisers to other potential candidates, including then-Vice President Biden's chief of staff.
But after less than 24 hours of consideration, Brazile realized that the idea was unsustainable without Clinton's cooperation and would likely only divide his party.
The current chair of the Democratic National Committee, Jaime Harrison, is a longtime Biden ally who essentially serves at the president's discretion.
And the national party has certainly given no indication that it is not 100% in favor of the president's re-election.
What happens if Biden withdraws after the convention?
To fill a vacancy on the national ballot, the chair of the Democratic National Committee can call a “special meeting” of the full DNC, which includes about 500 members.
At least on paper, a majority vote of those present is all that is needed to elect a new presidential and vice presidential candidate.
But that process would probably not be simple and would be full of behind-the-scenes maneuvering and public pressure campaigns.
However, if a vacancy were to occur close to the November election, it could raise
constitutional, legal and practical concerns.
Among other issues, ballots must be printed well before the election and may not be able to be changed in time.
Would Kamala Harris replace Biden?
If Biden were to step down from the presidency, Vice President Kamala Harris would automatically become president, but not the Democratic Party's nominee.
She, too, would not necessarily be the nominee if Biden were to withdraw from his re-election bid while remaining in the White House.
She may be favored politically, but party rules do not give the vice president any major automatic benefits over other candidates.
Biden's delegates would not automatically transfer to Harris and the convention holds separate votes on the presidential and vice presidential nominees.
Therefore, he would still need to win a majority of delegates at the convention.
If the top spot on the ballot were vacated after the convention, he would still need to win a majority of votes at the special meeting of the Democratic National Committee.
That's all, at least, according to the current party rules.
But such a vacancy on the ballot is the kind of dramatic moment that could lead party leaders to revise the rules to facilitate a transition.
Harris has some close allies in key places on the Democratic National Committee, including co-chair of the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee.
But probably nothing would happen without an uphill battle.