As of: February 10, 2024, 5:06 a.m
By: Nadja Pohr
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Hopes for winter weather in Baden-Württemberg are dwindling again.
Meteorologist Dominik Jung reports an extreme forecast for February.
Stuttgart - Some meteorologists are looking forward to the weather developments in the coming days and whether winter will return to Germany.
Most recently, forecasts from the American weather service GFS predicted a
cold snap
for Shrove Monday (February 12).
In the meantime, the models have made a U-turn - winter is postponed.
In the middle of the month there was a higher probability that the temperatures in Baden-Württemberg would drop again.
But now qualified meteorologist Dominik Jung from
wetter.net
is announcing a
“winter shock”
.
February is expected to remain mild in the coming weeks, explains meteorologist Dominik Jung.
Accordingly, the chances of an onset of winter are poor.
© Photomontage BW24/IMAGO/Frank Sorge/Screenshot YouTube/wetter.net
The weather in February will probably remain mild for a long time
In the latest forecasts for the weather in Baden-Württemberg there are no signs of a cold snap from mid-February onwards.
The GFS model expects
daily highs of 13 to 15 degrees
in the southwest on February 20th .
And in the ensemble forecasts up to February 22nd, the average temperature remains largely in the mild range of around 5 degrees.
February looks set
to be
record warm if things continue like this, says the expert.
For several weeks now, the weather in the country has been far too mild for the current season.
But the current temperatures are not unexpected.
The Climate Forecast System (CFS) of the American weather service NOAA already predicted that February would be too warm in its monthly forecasts in the summer of 2023.
The temperature deviation
from the climate average for the years 1981 to 2020
is currently
1 to 2 degrees
.
Dominik Jung estimates that the month will end up being 2 to 3 degrees warmer than the climate average.
Will winter 2024 be completely canceled in Baden-Württemberg?
Overall, the rest of February will be quite wet in places, although the south gets off lightly.
In Baden-Württemberg , up to 50 liters of rain per square meter
will be recorded in some regions until February 15th
.
In North Rhine-Westphalia, however, it can be up to 100 liters per square meter.
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It is extremely questionable whether there will be another extreme
change in the weather in the country with polar air
.
Winter fans will probably have to hope for winter in March, according to
wetter.net
.
But many people could safely do without that, after all, meteorological spring starts on March 1st.