As of: February 10, 2024, 11:45 a.m
By: Sven Hauberg
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The Year of the Dragon begins in China.
It promises happiness and prosperity - but not good things for Taiwan.
Other trouble spots can hardly count on Beijing.
No new trade restrictions, no military exercises, and the number of fighter jets that China sends near Taiwan every day has not increased: Beijing's reaction to the election of the China-critical Lai Ching-te as Taiwanese president in mid-January was surprisingly cautious .
But peace in the Taiwan Strait could still prove elusive.
The Year of the Dragon, which begins on February 10th, is expected to be stormy.
Lai will not be sworn in until mid-May, and analysts like Sheu Jyh-Shyang from the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in the Taiwanese capital Taipei believe that China could then react even harsher.
“You will see more coercive measures, such as sanctions against the Taiwanese economy,” says Sheu.
“Also diplomatic and military threats.
Probably not armed actions, but various 'grey zone activities' - military maneuvers that don't go quite as far as a direct attack on the island republic claimed by Beijing.
China, said Sheu, will continue to test where the red lines of the Taiwanese and their closest ally, the US government, lie.
From Lai himself, the analyst expects above all something like this: the future president of Taiwan will continue the line of incumbent Tsai Ing-wen, i.e. advocate for greater independence for Taiwan from China, and at the same time be willing to talk.
“Our door will always be open to cooperation with Beijing based on the principles of equality and dignity,” Lai announced during the election campaign.
It remains to be seen whether Beijing will accept the offer of talks after eight years of radio silence.
China and Ukraine War: Friendship with Russia is in the foreground
China's behavior in other world crises will also be under observation in the coming months.
For example, Beijing's role in the Ukraine war.
China has “actively advocated for a ceasefire and peace talks on the Ukraine crisis,” said Wang Yi, China's top foreign policy official, at a New Year's reception for diplomats at the end of January.
Which of course is only half the truth.
China is still not talking about a “war” and has still not condemned the Russian invasion of its neighboring country.
Beijing courts Vladimir Putin and gives Volodymyr Zelensky the cold shoulder.
An honest broker looks different.
At the same time, Wang announced that his country would “further strengthen cooperation” with Russia.
75 years ago, in the year the People's Republic was founded, communist China and the then Soviet Union established diplomatic relations with each other.
One can assume that 2024 will be a year of Sino-Russian friendship.
Trade between the two countries, which has already reached record highs of around 240 billion US dollars in 2023, is likely to grow, as is cooperation in the United Nations, for example.
If the USA is also weakened in the process, all the better for Beijing.
Ukraine is left behind.
War in Israel and Gaza: China wants to “contribute to peace and tranquility in the Middle East”
In the Middle East too, lip service is likely to remain the case.
In the past, state and party leader Xi Jinping has made the grandiose promise that “Chinese wisdom will contribute to promoting peace and tranquility in the Middle East.”
However, there isn't much to see.
Beijing has so far avoided condemning Hamas terror;
Instead, the party leadership unilaterally criticizes the actions of the Israelis in the Gaza Strip, while anti-Semitic conspiracy stories spread unhindered on social networks, sometimes even being picked up by state media.
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And China is busy trading with Iran, the country that wants to wipe the Jewish state off the map.
According to a report, Chinese investments in the country have increased tenfold within a year, and China also sources around a tenth of its crude oil from the mullahs.
This also explains why Beijing has loudly criticized the US for its attacks on the Tehran-backed Houthis instead of participating in the military operation.
China is also suffering from terrorist attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea.
“The more the international situation is in turmoil, the more the major powers have a responsibility to move in the same direction,” demands foreign policy expert Wang Yi.
So far, however, China is sticking to words.
China could get a new foreign minister in March
The country could have a new foreign minister in March, when China's parliament next meets.
Liu Jianchao, a veteran diplomat, is considered the favorite.
He could succeed Wang Yi as early as March, who took over the office from his predecessor Qin Gang, who was fired and has since disappeared, and could continue to remain the Communist Party's top foreign policy official.
Liu is considered affable and worldly and speaks English fluently.
China's foreign policy could soon show a friendlier face.
But Liu will not have any real power.
Only party leader Xi Jinping determines where China goes.