As of: February 11, 2024, 1:03 p.m
By: Karsten Hinzmann
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Spearheading the new air defense: an Arrow-3 interceptor missile at an Israeli military base (archive image).
Germany wants to invest almost five billion euros in two air defense systems.
© -/ISRAELI MINISTRY OF DEFENSE/dpa
The sky is becoming the battlefield of a possible conflict between Russia and NATO.
In Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is showing staying power.
Kyiv – Niklas Masuhr was wrong.
But huge.
Or the Americans were wrong.
Or Vladimir Putin is fooling them all: In February, Russia's dictator set off his third fireworks display in the Ukraine war in the form of massive air strikes - at a cost of almost 400 million euros, as
DefenseExpress
magazine reports.
Previously, he is said to have squandered almost 600 million euros in January of this year.
Niklas Masuhr would never have imagined such massive blows at the end of the second year of the war.
More than a year ago, the researcher at the
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH)
in Zurich clearly outlined a different assessment of the situation
to the
Federal Agency for Civic Education .
“If observers like the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
in Washington, DC are to be believed, the recent massive missile strike of around 100 missiles on Ukraine was one of the last major attacks for now.
Russia will soon no longer be able to afford to use self-guided precision weapons such as Iskander or Kalibr missiles for such a complex strike - i.e. rockets.
The Russian army is running out of precision ammunition.
There were only limited supplies from the start, and a certain proportion of them will probably be held back for a possible escalation with NATO.” A complete misjudgment.
Putin's arms industry: an inexhaustible arsenal - thanks to German help
Because the present at the front currently looks different.
While many offensives are stuck on the front lines, Putin's army is expanding its air strikes in the Ukraine war.
Germans and other Western companies are still playing diligently into the hands of the Russian arms industry, according to research by the editorial team of the
ARD
magazine
Monitor
.
As international support for Ukraine crumbles, Russia's weapons arsenal appears to be inexhaustible.
This is probably also due to the fact that Western technology continues to be delivered to Russia despite numerous sanctions from the European Union.
Despite all the sanctions, it is a horror with no foreseeable end.
This is what Ukraine recently flew to:
20 Shahed-136/131 drones from Chauda (Crimea);
29 Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS bombers from Engels (Caspian Sea);
04 Kh-22 cruise missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers from Sevastopol, Kursk;
03 Kalibr cruise missiles from ships in the Black Sea;
03 Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Tarhankut (Crimea) & Voronezh (Russia);
05 S-300 surface-to-air missiles from the Belgorod region (Russia).
Source: Kyiv Post
Experts continue to believe that the primary goal of these attacks appears to be to break Ukraine's will to resist.
The aim is to worsen the humanitarian situation to such an extent that the Ukrainian population will put pressure on the government in Kiev.
To make matters worse, the Russian side also currently lacks the momentum to carry out other far-reaching operations to regain the initiative.
Masuhr: “Such missile attacks are the only means that Russia currently has to hit Ukraine.” An expensive campaign.
The
Kiev Post
uses estimates from
Forbes Magazine
.
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Cost of each weapon type (estimated)
Shahed-136 – 47,000 euros
Kh-101 missile – 12 million;
Kh-555 – 3.7 million;
Kh-55 –1.9 million;
Kh-22 – 930,000;
Kalibr – 6 million;
Iskander – 2.8 million;
S-300 – up to 500,000.
Source: Forbes
In view of the scale of the Russian offensives, NATO is discussing controversially - politicians are expecting something bad, but science is seeing Russia's furs slipping away more clearly with every day of the Ukraine campaign.
Scandinavians are currently spreading a touch of panic: Denmark should accelerate its military investments after new evidence suggests that Russia is rearming faster than expected and that it could attack a NATO country within three to five years, said the Danish defense minister Troels Lund Poulsen of the newspaper
Jyllands-Posten
.
“Russia’s capacity to produce military equipment has increased enormously,” he said.
It is conceivable that Russia will put Article 5 and NATO's solidarity to the test within three to five years.
“That was not NATO’s assessment in 2023, but new findings that are now emerging,” said Lund Poulsen.
Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) spoke of up to eight years of preparation time.
In the short term, the risk of an attack on the alliance is likely to be low, argues Lydia Wachs
from the
Think tank
Foundation for Science and Politics:
Russia's military capabilities, including its missiles, are sufficient to continue the war in Ukraine - at least there are no immediate bottlenecks visible - the average number of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles deployed alone speaks volumes.
Putin's missile losses: 44 of 64 missiles fell victim to anti-aircraft defense
At the same time, the country probably needs the remaining capacities for its political and military goals in Ukraine.
In the medium to long term, however, it is expected that Russia will be able to fully restore its capabilities.
Wachs calculates that even then, Russia would probably have too few cruise missiles and rockets to wage a lengthy conventional war with NATO.
The war in Ukraine is undoubtedly depleting Russian arsenals;
In addition, the precision of the weapons suffers.
Of the 64 missiles that recently penetrated Ukraine, Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses took 44 out of the sky.
Of these, 26 are Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles, 3 are Kalibr cruise missiles and 15 are drones.
So far, Russia has apparently been unable to destroy or significantly weaken Ukraine's air defenses and is therefore using its air forces in a rather low-risk manner.
Nevertheless, missiles are the weapon of choice for Vladimir Putin, which is why the solidarity of NATO partners is all the more important.
The second step of the “Sky Shield Initiative” has been achieved since the middle of last year.
“To strengthen common air defense, 19 European states are currently joining forces to procure the appropriate weapon systems and ensure operations,” said Federal Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius (SPD) in Brussels at the end of last year.
The framework conditions for cooperative purchasing are thus becoming more concrete in order to save costs for Europe and keep operating costs low.
Putin's future terror: Arrow-3 - experts frown on this
Therefore, Germany is also purchasing IRIS-T SLM (Infrared Imaging System – Tail/Thrust Vector-controlled, Surface Launched Medium Range) weapon systems, which have already proven themselves under combat conditions in Ukraine.
However, the Bundeswehr currently lacks systems capable of protecting German territory against long-range missiles.
The federal government is therefore purchasing the Israeli-American Arrow 3 missile defense system for around four billion euros - a type of satellite that rams the enemy missile at an altitude of around 100 kilometers on its trajectory and thereby destroys it
The purchase met with broad approval in political Berlin, but internationally it raised eyebrows.
Unlike the Bundeswehr's existing Patriot and recently ordered Iris-T air defense systems, Arrow-3 appears to be completely unsuitable for intercepting Russian missiles or cruise missiles.
Arrow defends high up in Earth's atmosphere - the Russian missiles dive underneath.
Simon Højbjerg Petersen, a ballistic missile defense expert, called the purchase of Arrow-3 “the strangest procurement decision I have seen in a long time,” writes Frank Kuhn.
Kuhn is project coordinator of the
Natural and Technological Arms Control Research Cluster (CNTR)
at the
Leibniz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research
and argues critically against Arrow-3: The greatest threat to Germany and Europe currently comes primarily from Russian short-range missiles of the type 9K720 Iskander and the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic weapon and Russian cruise missiles.
What all of these weapon systems have in common, however, is that they do not leave the Earth's atmosphere during their flight.
“In other words, Arrow-3 cannot intercept Russian short-range missiles or cruise missiles at all,” Kuhn writes.
Der
Spiegel
simply sees the purchase as a “quick fix,” Kuhn gets the impression “that the procurement, similar to Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system, was primarily made for symbolic reasons.
In view of the turning point in foreign and security policy announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, this would be a fatal signal.” It remains to be seen to what extent Kuhn has hit the mark.