As of: February 11, 2024, 2:34 p.m
By: Sandra Kathe
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In surveys, the AfD has lost up to five percentage points since the beginning of the year.
A sociologist believes that the protests are sending a signal.
Berlin – For months the trend was upwards.
But in the last few weeks, approval ratings for the AfD have been trending downwards.
This is happening in times of nationwide demonstrations against right-wing extremism and reports about radical positions of AfD politicians and their youth organization Junge Alternative.
The sociologist Ortwin Renn even spoke to the German Press Agency about an end to the success story.
He no longer expects support for the AfD to grow in the future.
A downward trend for the AfD is reflected in the survey results from the opinion research institute Forsa, which conducts weekly election surveys on behalf of the television stations RTL and ntv.
Accordingly, in December 2023, around 23 percent of those surveyed nationwide said they would probably vote for the AfD in the next federal election.
This was a record for the party.
Course of success stopped?
The AfD federal speakers Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel in the Bundestag.
© IMAGO/dts news agency
Survey turnaround for the AfD: Right-wing populists are only at 18 percent nationwide
This value has been falling steadily since the beginning of January.
In the last survey, the results of which were published on February 6th, the right-wing populists were considered the favorite by 18 percent of those surveyed.
One of the beneficiaries of the lost AfD votes is the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance (BSW), which split off from the left and is now reaching around five percent in surveys.
According to the surveys, the SPD, Greens and FDP have also each gained one percentage point since mid-December.
Political party |
Election trend from February 6, 2024 |
|---|---|
CDU/CSU |
31 percent |
SPD |
15 percent |
Greens |
14 percent |
FDP |
4 percent |
left |
3 percent |
AfD |
18 percent |
BSW |
5 percent |
The sociologist Ortwin Renn, former director at the Institute for Transformative Sustainability Research (IASS) in Potsdam, sees the nationwide protests against the right as a possible reason behind this.
These were triggered by media reports about possible expulsion plans for refugees, people without a German passport and Germans with a migration background.
There are also loud protests against well-known inhumane statements made by representatives of the Junge Alternative.
Sociologist believes in a turnaround for the AfD: Are protest voters turning away?
The protest against right-wing extremist tendencies comes from the middle of society and ranges “from the conservative to the left-wing spectrum,” says sociologist Renn.
“This signal will have an effect,” he believes: “The AfD’s success has been stopped.” This is because “many of those who wanted to vote for the AfD in protest” would reconsider their decision due to the reports and increasing protests .
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But even if the numbers nationwide are currently trending downwards, that does not mean that the AfD is not continuing to gain influence, especially in some federal states.
For the state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg in the fall, the AfD is still aiming for a stronger election result than in the previous election, and in some cases even promises to be by far the strongest force.
AfD direct candidates can also be elected in the Berlin election on Sunday (February 11th).
One of them is currently in custody on suspicion of terrorism - but voters can still mark her.
(saka with dpa)