The Galician battle has become complicated for the PP.
The absolute majority of the popular party, which seemed unapproachable a month ago, is up in the air one week before the regional elections on the 18th, according to a 40dB survey.
for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER.
The candidacy led by the current president, Alfonso Rueda, remains the favorite, but shows a downward trend after the first half of the campaign has been consumed, so a handful of votes could deprive him of the hegemony that he has maintained for 15 years. in the regional Parliament.
Opposite, the extraordinary strength of the BNG is confirmed, based on the high evaluation of its leader, Ana Pontón, who threatens to corner the PSdeG-PSOE.
All the internal data of the survey can be consulted on the EL PAÍS and SER websites.
With the campaign in full swing, the political climate in Galicia is no longer the same as it was a month ago.
At the beginning of January, 40dB.
surveyed expectations for the 18-F for the first time and its results pointed to a resistant majority of the PP, which appeared in a position to repeat its devastating victory of 2020, when Alberto Núñez Feijóo won 42 of the 75 seats in the autonomous Parliament.
Since then, the popular party has given up two points in voting intention and with 45.2% they no longer have the secure majority of 38 deputies necessary to guarantee their continuity in the Xunta.
Everything depends on the fluctuations of a small number of votes and the provincial distribution.
The survey places the PP in a range between 36 and 40 seats in Parliament, with a median right at the border figure of 38. In the worst hypothesis for Rueda, the alliance between nationalists and socialists - with years of experience of joint governments in councils and town councils - would add support to take over the Government of the Xunta.
40dB work.
It took place between days 2 and 7, which reflected the effect of the only debate between candidates.
One of the most striking data of the survey is the high number of interviewees, 46.5%, who prefer a coalition government between left-wing parties.
It clearly exceeds the 29% who are betting on the PP continuing alone and the 7.5% who would like a pact between the Popular Party and Vox with very remote possibilities, since the survey once again places the extreme right as extra-parliamentary.
There is another possibility that the demoscopic investigation leaves open: that the PP saves the Government thanks to the support of Democracia Ourensana, the populist and “microliberal” formation of the histrionic mayor of that city, Gonzalo Jácome, which could achieve a single but valuable deputy.
The Popular Party had anticipated these elections to February - their mandate ended in July -, presuming an affordable victory.
His plan was to consolidate one of their most historic fiefdoms - they have governed for 36 of the 42 years of autonomy - and give Feijóo a boost ahead of the European elections in June.
A fiasco on 18-F would seriously compromise the national leadership of the Galician politician, who left the Xunta just two years ago after 13 years in power.
That hypothesis is no longer implausible.
And to a large extent it is due to the imposing rise of nationalists.
According to data from 40dB., BNG has advanced more than five points in a month and now stands at 30%, above its ceiling of 25% achieved in 1997 by the historic Xosé Manuel Beiras.
Pontón's dream of becoming the first woman and the first nationalist to preside over Galicia no longer sounds far-fetched.
With a range of between 22 and 25 seats (she now has 19), any eventual alternative would be headed by her.
The Bloc appears to be capitalizing on a substantial part of the left-wing vote.
It could be done with almost one in four voters who supported the PSdeG in 2020 and with almost half of those who then opted for the local brand of Unidas Podemos, whose heirs (Sumar and Podemos) would again be left out of Parliament as they were then. .
In addition, it is managing to attract former abstentionists, up to 11% of those who turned their backs on the polls in previous regional elections.
The growth of BNG cannot be understood without the power that Pontón has acquired.
Another of the most striking points of the survey is when it asks about the preferences to preside over Galicia: Rueda wins over the nationalist by the narrow margin of 33.2% to 30.4%.
And there is more.
Pontón has the approval of practically half of those surveyed, while Rueda does not reach 38%.
Even more than 21% of PP voters say they have a good or very good opinion of the nationalist leader.
The socialists await 18-F with contradictory feelings.
From the point of view of national politics, the opposition to Pedro Sánchez would be greatly weakened if the PP loses its majority.
But his Galician colleagues would be left in an uncomfortable situation as subordinates of the BNG.
The survey places the candidacy of José Ramón Gómez Besteiro in danger of what would be the worst historical results of the PSdeG.
It would go from 19.4% to 15.6% of the votes, and from its current 14 deputies to between 10 and 13. The socialist electorate is, by far, the most doubtful.
The portion of its voters who say they will surely go to the polls does not reach 60%, when all the others exceed 70%.
“The last week will be decisive to mobilize them,” they repeat in Besteiro's team.
Sánchez and his Government are turning their attention.
The president was with Besteiro in Vigo this Saturday and, even without criticizing the BNG, he defended that the most useful vote should not only be for those who promote change, but for those who "know how to govern change", that is, the socialists, with Greater management experience.
Even more complicated is the horizon for Sumar, which is fighting against the 5% barrier to enter the Galician Chamber and the very strong competition from the BNG.
Yolanda Díaz, in support of her candidate, Marta Lois, combines her commitment to a tripartite government with the effort to differentiate her option.
He reproaches the Bloc for voting against the labor reform and the PSOE for its resistance to measures such as taxes on large companies.
As for Podemos, which this Saturday received the support of Ione Belarra and Irene Montero, neither this survey nor any other gives it the slightest option.
In the PP a change is noticeable.
Feijóo's evolution shows it.
A week ago he said that the choice was “either Rueda or Sánchez.”
He now affirms that “Galicia is much more than Sánchez.”
That strategy of taking the campaign to the terrain of national politics with amnesty as a flag is fading.
Demonoscopy indicates that it does not seem to have much effect.
Data sheet
:
Scope: Galicia.
Universe: general population residing in Galicia, over 18 years of age and with the right to vote.
Sample size: 1,200 interviews.
Procedure: online interview (CAWI).
Sampling error: +-2.8% (for 95% confidence).
Date of completion: February 2 to 7, 2024
The segmentation of the voters of the different parties has been designed based on the variable "vote memory" in the regional elections of July 2020. The sample between the parties is PP , 309 interviews;
BNG, 223;
PSdeG, 243;
Galicia en Común, 61 and Vox, 38