As of: February 11, 2024, 7:15 p.m
By: Yasina Hipp
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Climate models show how the weather could develop by the end of the century.
Particularly interesting for Nuremberg's residents: tropical nights and snowfall.
Nuremberg – Snow is becoming increasingly rare and it is significantly warmer in summer.
It's not just people in Bavaria who are already feeling such climatic changes in their own skin.
But various studies show that this is not the end of the story.
If CO₂ emissions remain at today's level, this will also have consequences for Franconia, as a climate model from the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) shows.
Climate model shows development of temperature and hot days in Nuremberg
The scientists at GERICS support politics, business and society with their expertise on issues relating to climate change.
A team has currently drawn up a climate outlook for all German districts until the end of the current century.
The data is based on the results of 85 regional climate model simulations.
They offer an insight into the development of the average temperature, hot days, tropical nights, frost and ice days.
DWD data shows: So far there has been a “temperate climate” in Nuremberg
Data from the German Weather Service (DWD) for the current climate shows: On average, the temperature in Nuremberg is 8.4 degrees throughout the year, on six days a year the temperature rises above 30 degrees, and tropical nights with temperatures of 20 degrees and so far there has only been extremely rare occurrences.
On 23.5 days a year the thermometer does not climb above 0 degrees.
Anyone who appreciates the temperate climate of the Franconian metropolis will have to prepare for changes in the future, as the new climate model shows.
When developing such models, researchers distinguish between three scenarios that depend on CO₂ emissions in the next few years:
CO₂ emissions continue to rise continuously and stabilize at a high level (RCP8.5)
CO₂ emissions increase slightly until the middle of the century and decrease thereafter (RCP4.5)
CO₂ emissions are falling through drastic measures and by the end of the century there will be “negative emissions” (RCP2.6)
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from the Franconian metropolis.)
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In the worst case scenario: seven tropical nights for Nuremberg
Each of the three scenarios mentioned also has different effects for the residents of Nuremberg.
Even climate experts cannot quantify exactly which scenario will occur and to what extent.
The worst case scenario would be for CO₂ emissions to remain at current levels or even increase.
The average temperature would then rise by 1.9 degrees to 10.3 degrees by the middle of the century.
At the end of the century it would even be 12 degrees.
There would be 11.7 days in the middle of the century and even 20.1 days at the end of the century instead of the previous six days when it gets 30 degrees or warmer.
Tropical nights, which so far never or only very rarely occur throughout Germany, could occur 1.4 times by the middle of the century and even 7.2 times by the end of the century.
By the end of the century there were only two ice days a year
In summer it gets warmer overall and the phases of extremely hot days also become longer.
In winter, however, the number of really cold days decreases.
So far there have been around 105 frost days in the year when the temperature fell to 0 degrees and 23.5 ice days in which it did not get warmer than 0 degrees.
In the worst-case scenario, there will only be 89 frost days and 9.7 ice days per year by the middle of the century.
By the end of the century there would only be 65 days of frost and just under 2 days of ice.
Snow in Nuremberg will be a rare sight in a few years.
© Ardan Fuessmann / imago
In concrete terms, this means: even when it rains, the rain rarely turns into snow.
A look at the development of precipitation shows that winter precipitation is increasing by up to 8.7% or 17.6%.
However, if the temperature does not drop below freezing, the raindrops do not turn into snowflakes.
Other scenarios show a more positive development for Nuremberg
But there remains reason for hope.
The other two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP2.6) paint a more positive picture.
Here, for example, the temperature only increases by 1.7 degrees in the middle of the century and 2.2 degrees in the end of the century (RCP4.5) or by 1.3 degrees in the middle of the century and 1.2 degrees in the end of the century ( RCP2.6).
And the frost and ice days are not decreasing so drastically.
Whether there will be another white Christmas depends largely on how much CO₂ will be emitted in the next few years.
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