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Guillaume Tabard: “Presidential, European, four preconceived ideas about voting intentions”

2024-02-12T05:14:51.934Z

Highlights: The French do not yet have the lead in the Europeans. In all camps and for all lists, the variations are marginal. The Lepenists keeping some 10 points ahead of the Macronists. Jordan Bardella's list for Strasbourg (between 28% and 29%) would do less well than Marine Le Pen for the Élysée (36%). This gap calls into question a preconceived idea about the RN vote. The French would be expected to authorize a protest approach for a “no-cost” vote, but would be less inclined to entrust the keys to power to the double finalist.


COUNTERPOINT – While the French do not yet seem concerned by European women, polls already contradict certain presuppositions.


The French do not yet have the lead in the Europeans.

As proof, the great stability of voting intentions for six months.

In all camps and for all lists, the variations are marginal, with the Lepenists keeping some 10 points ahead of the Macronists.

Once again understood that a poll has no predictive value, but offers a snapshot of opinion at a given moment, it is interesting to compare the photos taken at the same time by Ifop, of the presidential election and Europeans.

Largely in the lead, Jordan Bardella's list for Strasbourg (between 28% and 29%) would do less well than Marine Le Pen for the Élysée (36%).

This gap calls into question a preconceived idea about the RN vote.

The French would be expected to authorize a protest approach for a “no-cost” vote, but would be less inclined to entrust the keys to power to the double finalist in the presidential election.

Also read: Guillaume Tabard: “For the majority, ward off the Glucksmann threat in the European elections”

The opposite happens.

A sign that despite “fashion”…

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Source: lefigaro

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