The uncontrolled re-entry into the atmosphere of the Earth observation satellite Ers-2 (European Remote-Sensing Satellite 2) of the European Space Agency could take place on February 20, at 2.51 am Italian time.
This is indicated by the latest updated forecasts that the space agency publishes on its website.
"The uncertainty in this forecast is just over two days", explain ESA technicians.
"This uncertainty is mainly due to the influence of unpredictable solar activity, which conditions the density of the Earth's atmosphere and therefore the resistance experienced by the satellite."
Launched into orbit in 1995 and in operation for 16 years, Ers-2 has a mass of approximately 2,294 kilograms.
According to simulations, 80 kilometers from the Earth's surface it should break into fragments, most of which will burn in the atmosphere.
Some debris may survive and reach the Earth's surface, where it will most likely fall into the ocean.
None of them will contain toxic or radioactive substances.
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