Aid to Ukraine faces an uncertain future in the US despite the approval of the Senate

After four months of negotiations, comings and goings and a lot of frustration, the United States Senate approved this Tuesday the funds to help Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion, by 70 votes to 29. But the future of the budget item, which also includes assistance for Israel, Gaza and Taiwan, is uncertain.

The bill now goes to the House of Representatives, where the Republican majority opposes renewing assistance to Kiev, in the midst of debate on the role of the United States in NATO following Donald Trump's statements this past weekend in the that encouraged Russia to do “whatever the hell it wants” with other European countries.

The good news for those in favor of continuing to support Ukraine, who insist that turning their backs on the invaded country would give wings to Russia and other authoritarian regimes, is that the funds have had the support of almost the entire Democratic group and 22 senators. republicans.

The national security aid bill provides for 95 billion dollars [about 88.65 billion euros], of which 60,100 will go to Ukraine and 14,000 to assist Israel in its war in Gaza - a smaller amount is aid to the Palestinians―.

With these figures, assistance from the United States, the largest international supporter of Volodymyr Zelensky's Government, would exceed 170 billion dollars.

The bad news is that the remaining Republican senators, a majority of their caucus, voted against it.

Something that anticipates problems – many – for the measure to go ahead in the House of Representatives, where that group has the majority and the opposition to renewing assistance to the invaded country is much tougher.

The president of the institution, Republican Mike Johnson, has spoken out forcefully against the bill as it stands.

And the party's foreseeable presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, is against any foreign aid that does not take the form of a loan, as he himself recalled on social media this weekend.

Johnson demands that the bill contain provisions that tighten control of the border with Mexico, where at least 2.4 million irregular crossings were recorded in 2023, the highest number detected so far.

“From the beginning of the negotiations, Republicans in the House [of Representatives] have made it very clear that [the measure] must recognize that national security begins at our own border,” he stressed.

“As long as we have not received a single change in border policy from the Senate, the House will continue to work on these issues on its own.”

Johnson's statements come after the Senate rejected, last week, a bill agreed upon after complicated negotiations since October and which contained, in addition to funds for national security, an immigration reform that tightened border control. .

That “no”, a slap in the face for the Republican leader in the upper house, Mitch McConnell, was consummated after Trump, who wants to make immigration one of his major campaign issues, recommended that legislators vote against a text which he considered “horrible.”

According to the Speaker of the House of Representatives, “the mandate of the extraordinary departure law for national security was to reinforce the American border before sending more foreign aid around the world.”

In the past, Johnson has declared himself open to approving aid to Ukraine.

But the big problem is the strong opposition among the deputies of his party to providing more funds.

Some, because they consider that the distribution is not transparent enough.

Others, because they think that this money should be used to solve internal American problems, or because the conflict is dragging on and they do not see an exit strategy.

And others, because they support former President Trump's isolationist theses and vision of foreign assistance as something to trade with.

A trend that has increased in that group as it has become clear that the tycoon will be his presidential candidate and has the polls in his favor.

For Johnson, simply presenting the Senate's Ukraine aid bill for a floor vote would be a political death sentence.

His predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, was removed in September in a motion from the hardline of his party, after having agreed to process another budget bill requested by the Democratic Administration and approved in the Senate.

A possible route for the president of the lower house is to let the Republican group draft its own bill.

But this party's legislators are immersed in bitter infighting between hardliners and moderates, and have failed to agree on hardly anything since the McCarthy debacle.

After the vote in the Senate, the leaders of the upper house welcomed the approval of aid that only a week before, after the rejection of the bill with immigration provisions, seemed dead.

“If we want the world to remain a safe place for freedom, democratic principles, future prosperity, the United States must lead the way.

And with this bill, the Senate declares that the leadership of the United States will not falter, will not weaken, will not fail,” said the leader of the Democratic majority, Charles Schumer.

The Republican minority, Mitch McConnell, indicated, for his part, that “the Senate understands the responsibilities of American national security and will not abandon them.”

The president of the United States, Joe Biden, has expressed his satisfaction with the Senate's step in a statement.

He has also urged the House of Representatives to approve the measure as soon as possible and, without mentioning him, has attacked Trump's positions: “Some say that American leadership and our alliances and partnerships with other countries in the world do not matter.

Yes they matter.

If we do not stand up against tyrants who want to conquer or seize chunks of territory from their neighbors, the consequences for American national security will be significant.

“Both our allies and our adversaries will take note.”

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