If the filmmaker Emilio Martínez-Lázaro proposed to make a sequel to
Eight Catalan Surnames
(2015) based on real events, he would have an increasingly difficult time.
Only 2.5 of the 8 million inhabitants of Catalonia have both parents born in the community, according to a report published this Monday by the Center for Demographic Studies, belonging to the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB).
The increase in immigration in this 21st century culminates the process of demographic transformation that began in the middle of the last century.
From “Catalonia, land of welcome” we have moved on to “Catalonia, land of immigrants”, concludes Albert Esteve, director of the CED.
Catalan demographics are marked by four major waves of migration in the last 100 years: the first two correspond to the 20th century (1910-1929 and 1950-1976), led by immigrants from the rest of Spain;
the last two (2000-2008 and 2016-2022), due to international immigration.
The 21st century migration as a whole has been the final push for Catalonia to go from six to eight million inhabitants.
“Without this extraordinary weight of migration, the demographic evolution of the country would not be understood, but neither would the economic, social or cultural evolution,” the study highlights.
The origin of the population reveals an increasingly diverse Catalonia: some 2.8 million (36% of the total) are born outside the community and another 2.3 million (29%) have at least one parent from outside the community.
In total, the percentage of immigrants and descendants reaches 65% of the population.
“If we added a third generation of those born in Catalonia with a grandparent born outside, around three out of four Catalans would be a direct or indirect product of immigration in the 20th and 21st centuries,” the study highlights.
Esteve highlights that immigrants or their descendants already represented a similar percentage in the last half of the 20th century.
“With a restrictive definition of what it means to be or not to be Catalan, the Catalan population will be reduced to a minority ethnic group in its territory,” analyzes an expert.
Given the rise of the immigration debate and xenophobic discourses in part of Catalan politics, experts appeal to demographic tradition.
“In Catalonia, anti-migration discourse has increased when tradition reflects that it is a land of migration,” analyzes Andreu Domingo, expert and deputy director of the CED.
“And if a restrictive definition of being or not being Catalan is made, the Catalan population will be reduced to a minority ethnic group in its own territory,” warns Domingo.
Questioned about the social challenges in terms of cohesion, Domingo changes the focus.
It is not a question of origin, but of economic inequality.
“Cohesion is not at risk because of diversity, but because of inequality.
We are seeing the end of upward mobility, children have more difficulties moving up the class and we are entering a crisis of the social model,” the expert warns.
The national market, he adds, has become polarized, and the best-paid jobs, such as judges, doctors or teachers, are a matter for the national population;
while migrants are hired in lower-paid jobs.
“They may be educated, but they are in jobs below their training,” he warns.
Fall in birth rate
Immigration growth has offset natural growth, which has been in sharp decline since 2008. “We are champions in having children late,” Esteve summarizes.
The first child of Catalan mothers arrives at an average age of 31.5 in Catalonia, much later than in 1975, when the UAB geography department began counting, when first-time mothers were 25 years old.
“The fall in fertility occurs in a global context, also in Sweden or Denmark, where they have a lot of aid.”
The figures in Catalonia are very similar to the rest of Spain.
Why is motherhood becoming more and more delayed?
Esteve raises three aspects by age blocks.
Until the age of 30, he understands, the population is for other things.
“Parenthood is not even considered because we have other expectations.”
Between 30 and 40, “material” requirements, such as having a house, a job or a partner, dominate, she says.
“And half of Spaniards live at their parents' house by the age of 30, with the limitations that entails,” she points out.
And from the age of 40, “when it seems like you have everything and you are ready,” biology imposes its own limitations.
“In the only space where the administration can intervene is in aid for access to housing or work, not in the rest,” analyzes Esteve.
These factors imply that a “significant” part of women, the CED report highlights, do not have children despite wanting it and that the offspring of those who are mothers are also lower than desired.
Fertility was below 1.2 children per woman in 2022, far from the 2.7 that were reached in the 1970s.
Barcelona reaches 1.7 million inhabitants
The city of Barcelona reached, according to data from the census last August, 1.7 million inhabitants (exactly 1,701,891 residents).
A round and symbolic figure, which has no less administrative derivative: if population growth continues in 2027, the city will add two councillors, going from the current 41 to 43. They are always odd figures, so that there is a majority of votes between political parties when approving any issue.
Barcelona already had 43 councilors between the first elections of the current stage of democracy (1979) and the 1991 elections. In 1995, due to a drop in population, it returned to 41 councillors.--CLARA BLANCHAR
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