A scenario with Donald Trump back in the White House and in a world with the Russian threat, the rise of China and the worst war scenario in half a century seriously worries NATO and its allies.
The insinuation of the former US president – and more than possible Republican candidate for the November presidential elections – that a US governed by him would not defend an ally that invests little in defense, casts doubt on Article 5 of the Alliance, which states that An attack on a partner is considered an attack on everyone and this requires helping him or her.
All of this comes at a time when several European countries have warned that Russia could try to undermine NATO in the next decade and even test that guarantee of collective security with an attack on one of the 31 allies.
France urged Europeans this Monday to prepare for the possible return of the populist Republican to the White House.
“I will not stop persuading all leaders of the relevance of our alliance, which works for the benefit of everyone, including the United States,” said French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné this Monday.
“Every minute counts to prepare Europeans to absorb the
shock
of a scenario outlined by Donald Trump and we will work together to analyze the context, in particular of the US elections,” he added.
The high representative for Foreign Policy and Security of the EU, Josep Borrell, has ironically commented on Trump's statements.
“NATO cannot be an à la carte military alliance… depending on the mood of the US president,” he remarked this Monday.
Trump's words "call into question the credibility" of the United States as an ally, says Michal Baranowski, director of the German Marshall Fund for the East.
This expert also points out that the former president altered reality and stated that that 2% of the GDP that the allies have committed to spending on defense – as marked by Wales' commitment in 2014 – is actually paid to Washington and presented as “ defaulters” to allies who have not covered that contribution.
“This is not how the Alliance works,” Baranowski remarks by phone.
“France, Germany, Poland, need to open the debate on what should be done in the face of a possible Trump presidency, both with regard to support for Ukraine and European security and defense,” he adds.
'The Three Musketeers'
“NATO's philosophy is like that of
The Three Musketeers
,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said this Monday in Paris before having lunch with French President Emmanuel Macron — who has long since banished his 2019 speech in the one who assured that the Alliance was “brain dead”—.
Already on Sunday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg responded to Trump's comments with an unusual accusation of “undermining the security” of allies.
For weeks, several allied defense ministers have been warning of the Russian threat to NATO, when two years have passed since the Kremlin's large-scale invasion of Ukraine and when it is increasingly clear that the war on the eastern flank borders of the Alliance and the EU will be long.
The last one, just a few days ago, was the Danish Defense Minister, Troles Lund Poulsen, who asked the citizens of the Nordic country to prepare for a difficult stage.
“It cannot be ruled out that within a period of three to five years Russia will test Article 5 and NATO solidarity,” said the Danish minister, who stressed that his comments are motivated by “new information.”
Germany, Romania, Estonia, Belgium and Sweden have spoken in a similar way, a country that asked to enter the transatlantic organization after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and that is awaiting Hungary - which has not yet ratified its entry, despite the fact that its leaders They said it would not be the last country to approve it.
“We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day, so we have to take into account that Vladimir Putin could even attack a NATO country,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius launched at the end of January.
“For now,” that scenario is not likely, he said in an interview with
Der Tagesspiegel
, in which he stressed that German experts believe that this possibility could occur “in a period of five to eight years” and highlighted the importance of preparing. “in military, social and military defense terms.”
Meanwhile, Rob Bauer, head of NATO's military committee, stated that the Alliance faces the "most dangerous world in decades" and called for a "military transformation of NATO."
Similar reviews
Trump's comments are similar to those he made in 2017, during his term in the White House, when he became the scourge of allies who did not reach that 2% of GDP in military spending, which marks Wales' commitment ( agreed in 2014 and that also handles other variables, such as investment in capabilities).
But this time, this vociferous mimicry comes at a very complicated moment in which, in addition, the EU partners fear being left alone in their support for Ukraine, a candidate country for the community club.
And even more so if Trump, who has had a complicated relationship with the country, returns — a conversation with Zelensky in which he blackmailed him with blocking military aid if they did not investigate Joe Biden's son's business in Ukraine led to his first
impeachment
in 2019 — and who is perceived as someone in tune with Putin.
Camille Grand, Security and Defense specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), believes that Trump's statements add uncertainty to a very delicate moment and highlights the "unpredictability" of the former president and the fact that he seems to introduce a transactional element in NATO and its member protection umbrella.
“And, if it comes to that, having an unpredictable ally is very complicated,” she points out.
Like Baranowski, Grand — a senior NATO official from 2016 to 2022 — believes it is time for European allies to ask themselves whether they could adjust to an organization in which the United States is less present.
NATO has not changed its alert level and some diplomatic sources indicate that the latest warnings are aimed at making citizens aware of the need for an increase in defense spending.
Also to the fact that the situation with Russia is not going to get better and, in the most optimistic scenario, it would remain unchanged.
However, the fact that the Kremlin has increased its capacity to produce military equipment so quickly is of great concern.
By contrast, the European defense industry, a sector that many allies had neglected until Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine two years ago, is moving slowly.
Allied sources point out that the campaign in the United States and Trump's profile will further harden the debate on the 2% in military spending that is now only reached by 11 countries (Spain is at 1.26%): Poland, the United States, Greece, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Hungary, Latvia, United Kingdom and Slovakia.
However, since 2014, the year of the invasion of Crimea by Russia, which annexed that Ukrainian peninsula with an illegal referendum, all allies have considerably increased their spending on military spending.
Especially since 2022, the year of the large-scale invasion.
Only three countries have reduced that budget in 2023, compared to levels nine years earlier (and none are from the EU): the United States, Turkey and the United Kingdom, according to the latest NATO report.
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