By Sahil Kapur and Bridget Bowman —
NBC News
Tuesday's special election in New York's 3rd Congressional District could do more than replace disgraced former Republican Congressman George Santos in the House of Representatives.
It could also have implications beyond Long Island, from the precinct majority to the November elections.
Former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi faces Republican Mazi Pilip, a Nassau County lawmaker and Ethiopian immigrant who served in the Israel Defense Forces.
Suozzi entered the race with high name recognition, having represented the 3rd District before running unsuccessfully for governor in 2022.
And while Suozzi and his Democratic allies have outpaced Republicans in the media, strategists from both parties
expect a close race Tuesday.
Here are five things to keep in mind as voters head to the polls, which close at 9:00 pm ET:
Democrat Tom Suozzi and Republican Mazi Pilip.AP
1. Implications of the majority in the House
The Republican Party has a minimal majority in the House of Representatives that has been reduced even further after the expulsion of Santos.
The margin is 219 Republicans to 212 Democrats.
A victory would give the party a small cushion in key votes, while a loss would put even more pressure on them to compromise with Democrats in order to govern.
The importance of each vote in the House was highlighted last week when the House Speaker's attempt, Republican Mike Johnson, to remove Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas failed by a single vote.
On many issues, small factions of House Republican rebels have managed to thwart leaders' plans to press their demands.
“In every election there is a lot at stake.
But when it comes to special elections with such a slim majority, the stakes are very, very important,” the chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, Republican Elise Stefanik, told Monday night. NBC News at a Pilip event.
“It is the smallest majority in the history of the modern Congress.
So every vote matters.”
Rep. Grace Meng, D-N.Y., who represents a neighboring district in Queens and has been working to help elect Suozzi, explained that a Democratic victory “would be a huge morale booster.
Obviously, Republicans are having trouble passing their own legislation.
“So they really need this victory to try to function as a Chamber.”
2. Reference district for 2024
Tuesday's results could provide clues for competitive races in November: The battle for the House will be fought in similar districts.
Like other competitive House districts, New York's 3rd on Long Island is largely suburban, and is a GOP-held district that Joe Biden won in 2020.
It's also in a state that won't get much attention from presidential campaigns, so Tuesday night's winner and outside groups will have to shoulder much of the campaign effort in November.
But that also allows the candidates to focus the dispute and separate themselves from the national narrative.
Suozzi has tried to do just that, emphasizing his willingness to work with both parties as Biden's support in the district has fallen since 2020. A Newsday/Siena College poll released last week found Suozzi with a lead of four points over Pilip, within the poll's margin of error, but also put Biden behind former President Donald Trump by five units.
Win or lose on Tuesday, both Suozzi and Pilip have committed to running in the November election, so they are likely to face each other again this year.
“I think Wednesday morning, however it ends, it's going to start over,” Mark Schneider, a Great Neck resident who voted for Suozzi, said Monday.
“So we're going to have the same type of campaign and activity, plus a lot of advertising.”
3. Will immigration boost Republicans?
The migrant crisis has dominated recent television ads in the district, and Republicans believe concerns about the influx of immigrants to neighboring New York City will hurt support for Suozzi.
The
Congressional Leadership Fund
, the major GOP super PAC financially involved in House elections, recently launched a television ad linking Suozzi to New York Mayor Eric Adams, with a narrator saying: “Liberals like Suozzi and Eric Adams roll out the red carpet for illegal immigrants.”
Suozzi, for his part, has tried to neutralize the vulnerability by emphasizing his support for the bipartisan border security measure that failed last week in the Senate, arguing that Pilip, who opposed the bill, is beholden to the extremes of their party who want to use the problems at the border for political gain.
Democrats also believe that Republican opposition to the measure, led by Trump, gives them an opening with voters on immigration, with which the GOP typically has an advantage.
Tuesday's special election could be an early test of that strategy, although the back-and-forth over the bill could be playing out too late to affect the dispute.
4. Can Democrats take advantage of issues like abortion and guns?
Democratic outside groups, for their part, have focused in part on abortion, which has helped fuel recent Democratic victories after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
House Majority PAC, the main Democratic super PAC running in the House elections, launched a television ad with a video of Pilip saying he is “pro-life.”
She has stressed that she would not support a federal ban on abortion, but has dodged questions about whether that means she would vote to protect access to it.
Suozzi has tried to exploit Pilip's refusal to declare clear positions on restricting abortion or semi-automatic weapons — two vulnerabilities for Republicans — as further evidence that she is a slave to right-wing extremists who are out of step with the district on those issues.
She has also called her “George Santos 2.0,” accusing her of a lack of transparency.
Pilip has said he does not support access to automatic assault rifles.
But in their only debate last week, on News12 Long Island, Suozzi tried to press Pilip about whether she would support banning these types of weapons, which are at the center of the proposed bans, and Pilip refused to testify. assumption.
5. Will winter weather influence electoral participation?
The forecast for a severe winter storm on Long Island on Election Day could reduce voter turnout in an election that is already expected to be thinly attended.
The forecast has caused some anxiety among Republican Party strategists, because their voters disproportionately vote on Election Day, compared to Democrats, who vote earlier in larger numbers.
At a rally Monday night in Franklin Square, Pilip and leading New York Republicans urged their voters not to let the storm get in the way of their participation.
“It doesn't matter if it's going to rain or snow.
Let's get out safely.
We are going to encourage people to go vote safely,” Pilip told the crowd.
“Because we are talking about saving our country.
The country we love most.”
Suozzi has attempted to encourage voters to take advantage of every opportunity to vote, tweeting about the impending storm on Monday.