As of: February 13, 2024, 5:00 a.m
By: Kathrin Braun
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Christoph Heusgen, ambassador and chairman of the Munich Security Conference (MSC), at a press conference.
© Kay Nietfeld/dpa
The West is more afraid of migrants than of Putin: This is what a new Siko report shows.
China's rise in power also worries people.
Munich – The forecast sounds bleak.
“Lose-Lose?” is the name of the Munich security report, which is published every year a few days before the start of the Siko.
That means: In the world order, every country is currently at risk of being a loser.
If you look at the advantages of international cooperation as a cake, then Western countries fear “that their own piece is getting smaller and smaller,” says Siko research director Tobias Bunde.
“Some autocrats from Russia to Iran, on the other hand, feel that now is the opportunity to expand their play.”
Next weekend, Munich will once again become a high-security zone: 180 government representatives from all over the world will debate crises and conflicts in the Bayerischer Hof - including 84 foreign and defense ministers alone.
Heads of state, kings and Nobel Peace Prize winners are also expected.
Siko in Munich: challenges like never before
The report shows how difficult the basis for discussion will be: There are more crises, conflicts and challenges than rarely before in the 60 years since the Security Conference was founded, says its boss Christoph Heusgen.
The obvious construction sites are the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
But according to a survey in the report, for many people in the West, Putin is no longer the biggest security risk - migration, cyber attacks, climate change and Islamic extremism are perceived as the biggest threats.
For this purpose, citizens of the G7 states, the original BRICS countries with the exception of Russia (Brazil, India, China and South Africa) and Ukraine were surveyed last autumn.
Particularly in Europe's G7 countries, Canada and Japan, few people believed that their country would become safer or more prosperous in the next ten years.
In Germany it is only 15 percent, says Tobias Bunde.
“This is a clear contrast to the figures from China and India, where majorities are much more optimistic about the future.” In almost all countries surveyed, people believed that China and the other powers of the Global South are gaining significantly in power, while their own Countries stagnate or lose power.
As more and more countries see the world as a zero-sum game, Bunde warns of a “vicious circle” in which the only question is who loses the least.
This would lead to “the overall pie becoming smaller and smaller”.
It's not just friends who meet in Munich
The Siko is intended to be an attempt to break this vicious circle.
It's not just friends who will come together at the world's most important forum for security policy: alongside Israeli President Isaac Herzog, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtajjeh is also expected.
Representatives from Lebanon, Qatar, Yemen, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the Jordanian king are also scheduled to come to Munich.
The Middle East conflict will probably take up the most space at the conference.
As the most prominent representative from the USA, Vice President Kamala Harris will be received by Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) at Munich Airport on Thursday.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and a number of Democratic and Republican lawmakers will accompany them on their trip.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is also eagerly awaited.
They deliberately did not invite Taiwanese representatives, even if the conflict between Beijing and the island state “will be an issue,” says Heusgen – because they have no plans to change anything about Germany’s one-China policy.
Russia is explicitly disinvited.
“If Putin gets his way and recognizes Zelensky as a representative of the Ukrainian government,” that would perhaps be a basis for inviting Russian government representatives,” says Heusgen – although Putin himself would be arrested as soon as he came to Germany.
Whether President Volodymyr Zelenskyj will come is still officially under wraps.
“We invited him and hope that he will come too,” explains Heusgen.
According to information from our newspaper, the Ukrainian president is planning a visit to Siko.
(Kathrin Braun)