As of: February 13, 2024, 12:14 p.m
By: Patrick Mayer
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Ukrainian forces could soon lose Avdiivka.
Kiev is therefore changing its tank strategy selectively – at great risk.
Avdiivka – If you want to know how serious the situation is for Ukraine against Russia at the moment, you just have to look at Avdiivka.
At the beginning of February, after months of fighting, the Ukrainian armed forces are threatened with the serious loss of their bastion in Donbass.
Avdiivka in distress: Ukrainians are probably sending Abrams tanks against the Russian army
Is Kiev therefore resorting to the last resort (for now) in view of the small town and changing its tank strategy in the Ukraine war?
A video that is being eagerly shared on X (formerly Twitter) shows the loss of a Bradley tank.
The M2 can be clearly seen, including the direct hit that the armored personnel carrier probably received from a mine, whereupon the crew piled out of the vehicle.
The video is said to come from the Avdiivka area, as does another video from a Ukrainian broadcaster that is also going viral on X.
The image excerpts (see tweet below) document the use of a Ukrainian M1 Abrams main battle tank.
This supposedly drives towards the former industrial city, which was completely destroyed by the Russians.
If the information is correct and cannot be independently verified, the deployment of Abrams on this sector of the front carries a high risk.
One of the delivered American Abrams main battle tanks in service with the Ukrainian army.
© Screenshot X@Osinttechnical
Abrams tank from the Ukrainians: Russian army has probably identified a weak point
Because: The USA only delivered a total of 31 Abrams to the Ukrainian armed forces.
Because of their enormous weight of over 61 tons, the steel colossi are considered to be manageably suitable for combat on the muddy ground of the Ukrainian winter.
For comparison: a German Marder infantry fighting vehicle weighs just 42.5 tons.
The American tanks have received additional protection against anti-tank weapons with reactive armor.
But: The Russians have long since identified a weak point in the Abrams tank.
“Starting with the roof: It is large and very thin, about 25 millimeters.
An FPV (
kamikaze drone, ed.
) can penetrate this spot even with an old anti-tank charge and kill or injure a crew member.
“The drone could damage various electronic components in the turret or set it on fire, forcing the crew to evacuate,” military analyst Gabriel Silveira recently wrote
at X , according to the business magazine
Forbes .
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M1 Abrams of the Ukrainian army: No protection against Russian Lancet drones
And: A number of videos that are presumably being spread by the Russian site on social media suggest that the German “Leo”, for example, can hardly defend itself against the Lancet drone, a so-called “loitering weapon”. leaves.
Because the M1s do not have any distance-active protection systems, such as Trophy, that fire shotgun ammunition against incoming projectiles, they are also at the mercy of drones.
While Germany is currently preparing to deliver dozens of Leopard 1 tanks, the Ukrainians actually wanted to withhold their valuable Western tanks from the front lines.
However, the cries for help from Avdiivka are dramatic.
The 110th Ukrainian Mechanized Brigade is threatened with encirclement here after heavy losses.
The Telegram channel
Ukraine Fights
reported on February 4 that “the situation in the city has become critical.”
Russian warplanes bombed the northeast of the city, and Russian troops bypassed Ukrainian battle formations and gained a foothold on the outskirts.
Avdiivka in Donbass: 110th Ukrainian Mechanized Brigade in distress
“While we said for several weeks that the situation was very difficult but under control, now the situation is very difficult and critical in some places,” Vitaliy Barabash, head of the city's military administration, said, according to the independent
Moscow Times
: “That means not that all is lost, that everything is very bad.
But the enemy is directing a very large number of forces at our city.” As the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
classifies based on its available maps, the Russian troops are said to be only a few hundred meters away from the remaining Ukrainian supply line – one country road.
According to the Telegram channel
Butusov Plus,
Russian units have holed up on the northern outskirts of Avdiivka after street battles.
The units that arrived there from Moscow were clearly numerically superior to the remaining units of the 110th Mechanized Brigade.
“Avdiivka urgently needs new reserves and rotation of units from the heroic 110th Brigade,” the post said.
Small Ukrainian town is threatened with encirclement: Avdiivka in Donbass is almost completely surrounded by Russian troops.
© Screenshot X@TheStudyofWar
Ukraine war: Military experts warn of abandonment of Avdiivka
Wall Street Journal
correspondent
Yaroslav Trofimov nevertheless warned of the consequences if Avdiivka were abandoned.
A capture would allow the Russians to consolidate positions around Bakhmut, he wrote, as well as ease control of the Donetsk-Kramatorsk highway and overall improve logistical capabilities in the region.
Leon Hartwell, senior associate at the London
School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
, told the American news magazine
Newsweek
: "The loss of Avdiivka would limit Ukraine's ability to launch counter-offensives against Russia in Donbass and the retaking of the city in view Their impressive fortifications would be an extraordinarily demanding task.”
(pm)