As of: February 14, 2024, 2:22 p.m
By: Bettina Menzel
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A man stands on the Atlantic Ocean in northern Spain as the waves break.
© Imago/Mario Martinez/Westend61
Europe needs to warm up, according to a new study.
A breakdown of key ocean currents could result in a double-digit drop in temperature.
Utrecht - Global temperatures in January 2024 were higher than at any time this month since records began, the EU climate change service Copernicus said on Thursday (February 8).
For the first time, temperatures over a twelve-month period averaged over 1.5 degrees higher than in the pre-industrial era.
Climate scientists have been warning about the consequences of global warming for decades.
A team of researchers from Utrecht University used complex computer models to examine changes in ocean currents - with worrying results, especially for Europe.
Atlantic ocean currents as air conditioning in Europe: “Weakest state in over a millennium”
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc for short) is considered Europe's air conditioning system.
Ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream transport heat, but also nutrients and salt around the globe like a conveyor belt.
This means that the climate in Europe is comparatively mild.
The water masses move through the so-called thermohaline circulation, which works due to differences in salinity and temperature.
These factors influence the density of the water and thus its movement: the colder and more saline, the heavier.
Precipitation and ice melt, in turn, influence the salinity of the oceans.
Global warming is contributing to the acceleration of melting, for example in the Greenland ice sheet.
With apparently dramatic consequences.
Researchers at Utrecht University have now used a computer model to develop an early warning signal for the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc).
The data shows that Amoc is currently in its “weakest state in over a millennium,” the scientists said.
“This result differs significantly from previous model simulations.” This is “bad news for the climate system and humanity, because until now it could be assumed that the AMOC tipping behavior was only a theoretical concept and that the tipping behavior would disappear as soon as the whole Climate system with all its additional feedbacks is taken into account,” the study said.
About the study
The data basis of the study “Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course” was the salinity of the Atlantic Ocean and a simulation of the changes over one Period of 2000 years based on computer models.
The study by authors René M. Van Westen, Michael Kliphuis and Henk A. Dijkstra was published on February 9, 2024 in the scientific journal
Science Advances
.
Link to the study
Researchers warn of Amoc tipping point: extreme drop in temperature possible in Europe
The impact of a collapse in ocean currents would be severe, affecting climate around the world.
However, Europe would be particularly affected.
There would be rapid cooling there, with falling temperature trends of more than three degrees per decade.
In several European cities, temperatures could fall by 5 to 15 degrees Celsius per decade.
Such a rapid change would be difficult to respond to.
“Compared to the current trend in global mean surface temperature (due to climate change) of around 0.2 degrees per decade, no realistic adaptation measures can deal with such rapid temperature changes,” the Dutch researchers concluded.
According to the study, it is not possible to determine exactly when the tipping point will occur because there is not enough data.
Whether in the coming year or the next century, rapid action is needed as the speed at which change is occurring is “surprising,” according to the study.
The scientists' warning is clear: the consequences will be “devastating,” warns the Dutch research team.
In addition to falling temperatures, sea levels could rise by more than 70 centimeters in some Atlantic coastal regions.
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