The new government coalition just announced in Pakistan is a repeat of that which brought down former Prime Minister Imran Khan in 2022, who retains a strong power of nuisance even in the opposition, analysts believe.
The legislative elections of February 8 produced an unexpected result for the supporters of the former cricket star, currently imprisoned.
Despite the repression ordered by the army against them, they obtained the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly.
But without an absolute majority and refusing any alliance, they witnessed Tuesday the announcement of the creation of a coalition excluding them, by Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), which came in second place.
The PML-N, supported by the military, joined forces with Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and minor parties to form the next government.
“The more things change, the more they stay the same
,” comments Hafsa Khawaja, a political analyst, for AFP.
“It’s the same configuration (as in 2022), but only with the stamp of these elections.”
The success of independent candidates supported by Imran Khan's party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) - which was not allowed to appear on the ballots - required a broad coalition to form the government.
But everything suggests that it will be even more fragile than that of 2022. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2022-2023, suggested that the PPP could not occupy ministerial positions, and be content to support the coalition on a case-by-case basis.
“Difficult and unpopular decisions”
The PPP can still change lines.
In addition to the ministerial positions, many remain to be negotiated, including the role of Asif Ali Zardari, president of the Islamic republic between 2008 and 2013, whom his son, Bilawal, would like to see occupy this position again.
If the PPP does indeed renounce all morocco, this will make the future executive a minority government, therefore in
“an even weaker position”
than in 2022, notes Amber Rahim Shamsi, another political analyst.
Pakistan remains facing a serious economic crisis and the new government will have to accept additional austerity measures to obtain much-needed new financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“Whoever the government is, it will have to make a lot of difficult and unpopular decisions
,” predicts Amber Rahim Shamsi.
After his ouster in 2022, Imran directly challenged the military, which ruled the country for decades and yet was believed to have supported him during his election in 2018. He accused it of orchestrating his downfall and attributed his legal troubles to him, intended according to him to prevent his return to power.
He was unable to run in the elections after being sentenced to long prison terms for treason, corruption and un-Islamic marriage, just before the vote.
Army influence
But even weakened, and claiming to be the victim of massive fraud, the PTI won around 90 of the 266 seats in the National Assembly up for grabs. A result which allows it to continue to disrupt the game.
“The establishment sought to dismantle the party, but in the end he did not succeed in making it obsolete
,” underlines Hafsa Khawaja.
“The PTI is not going to disappear, even if it is a weakened party.”
The PML-N has indicated that its candidate for the post of prime minister will not be Nawaz Sharif, the founder of the party, who has already held this position three times, but his younger brother Shebaz.
He had already led the coalition government after the fall of Imran Khan two years ago, and is considered more flexible towards the army.
Even when it was not itself in power, the army never stopped playing kingmaker.
A somewhat unstable coalition would also allow it to maintain its influence more easily.
“But the army is in a dilemma regarding these politicians
,” observes Qamar Cheema, a political expert at the Sanober Institute in Islamabad.
She needs them to guarantee
“broader stability”
.
However,
“as long as this government does not have the support of the public, it will not be able to do what is expected of it.”