Indonesia, the third largest democracy on the planet, elects this Wednesday a new president and vice president, as well as parliamentary and local government representatives.
Nearly 205 million people are called to the polls in what will be the biggest day of voting of this super electoral year (in India, the most populous country in the world, will vote between April and May).
The first economy in Southeast Asia chooses between three continuity proposals after a decade of leadership by Joko Widodo ―nicknamed
Jokowi―
, who cannot run for re-election after exhausting the maximum of two terms.
The favorite to succeed him, according to polls, is the current Minister of Defense, Prabowo Subianto.
Presidential elections in the archipelago are traditionally a battle of personalities rather than political promises and, on this occasion, the young vote will be decisive, given that 52% of the electorate is under 40 years of age (the country has 270 million inhabitants). .
For this reason, the race towards the Merdeka palace has developed above all on social networks, where the three presidential candidates have tried to win the favor of voters by showing the most affable face with live broadcasts and viral dances, instead of betting on rallies and other more traditional campaign strategies.
Regarding the former general Prabowo, 72 years old, who lost to Widodo in the 2014 and 2019 elections, serious accusations of human rights violations are planned.
Although charges have never been brought against him, his critics point out that Prabowo was involved in the late 1990s in the kidnapping and torture of around twenty pro-democracy protesters, of whom more than a dozen remain missing.
He is also credited with ordering some of the atrocities that were committed in East Timor and Papua during the Indonesian occupation, which cost him his dismissal from the army and exile in Jordan in 1998. The United States even banned him from entering the country for these acts. , but he eliminated the veto in 2020, after he assumed the Defense portfolio.
Known for his fervent nationalism and strong temperament, Prabowo has shown his most affable and charismatic side through social networks and has moved away from that flirtation with more radical Islamic factions that cost him victory in 2019. His nine million followers on Images of his private life and photos of his cats are seen daily on Instagram, and many young people have become fond of his clumsy movements in his viral TikTok dances, with which he has captured the attention of a key demographic.
Almost 80% of the Indonesian population has access to the internet, and people between 16 and 64 years old spend more than three hours a day on social networks, according to the
Digital 2023
report by the British company We Are Social.
According to data from the Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS), social networks are the first source of information for 60% of Indonesian voters.
Prabowo goes to the polls with Gibran Rakabuming Raka, President Widodo's first-born son, as a candidate for the vice presidency.
His candidacy has not been without controversy, since Gibran, 36, was ruled out for not meeting the requirement of being a minimum of 40 years old to compete for the two highest positions in the Government.
However, the Constitutional Court, chaired by Widodo's brother-in-law, ruled in October that younger applicants could run if they had previously held public office.
This is the case of Gibran, current mayor of Surakarta.
Erosion of democratic values
These political movements have sparked criticism and concern about a possible erosion of democratic values in Indonesia, a country that freed itself from the yoke of an authoritarian regime only 25 years ago.
In 2014, Widodo became Indonesia's first leader away from the elite thanks to his charisma and moderate spirit.
Analysts at the American
think tank
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace see it as possible that the current president will try to maintain his influence even after leaving office.
The current Defense Minister's opponents are Anies Baswedan, 54, and Ganjar Pranowo, 55. The first is an academic and former governor of Jakarta who represents the furthest option from the current president.
In 2017 he was accused of courting radical Islamic groups that fueled identity politics in the country with the world's largest Muslim population.
He is now running alongside Muhaimin Iskandar, leader of Indonesia's main Islamic party.
Ganjar, for his part, was expected to be the favorite candidate to succeed Widodo, with whom he shares a party.
But the political influence of the former Central Java governor has crumbled after the president began a tacit campaign in favor of Prabowo.
Without that support, this politician of humble origins has tried to show a folksy attitude and has promised measures aimed at the most disadvantaged sectors.
To win the elections, a simple majority and at least 20% of the votes are needed in more than half of the country's provinces, spread over 17,000 islands.
If there is no clear winner, a second round would be held in June between the two candidates with the most votes.
Last week's polls by Indikator Politik and Lembaga Survei Indonesia predicted a victory for Prabowo with more than 51% of support.
Unemployment and an improvement in the quality of life are among the main concerns of voters of the younger generations, who represent more than half of the electorate.
Although the official unemployment rate stands at 5.32%, experts point out that this figure does not accurately reflect reality, since many employees only officially work a few hours a week and approximately 60% are in the informal sector. .
In addition, youth unemployment has increased in recent years: in 2023, young people between 15 and 24 years old represented 55% of the 7.86 million unemployed, an increase of 10% compared to 2020.
During Widodo's decade of leadership, the country has experienced stable economic growth and low inflation, as well as significant investment in industries linked to its abundant natural resources.
For example, billions of dollars have been invested in nickel smelting, attracting battery and electric vehicle manufacturers such as China's CATL and South Korea's LG and Hyundai.
However, investments in recent years have been allocated more to machinery and technology than to job creation, according to some economists.
The next Administration, which will govern until 2029, will have the responsibility of addressing that challenge and seeking answers to the growing use of automation and artificial intelligence, an issue that neither candidate has addressed in detail during the campaign.
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