As of: February 14, 2024, 12:34 p.m
By: Tanja Banner
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A satellite orbits the earth.
(Artist's impression) © IMAGO/Zoonar
After the controlled crash of the “Aeolus” satellite, ERS-2 now faces the same fate.
This time Esa will not be able to intervene.
Munich - In July last year, the European space agency Esa actively monitored the crash of a 1.3-ton satellite.
With this targeted crash of the Aeolus satellite, the organization wanted to create a standard regarding the disposal of space waste.
In fact, Esa managed to steer the satellite until shortly before its end and cause it to burn up in an uninhabited area.
However, the next satellite that is about to crash will not be able to be controlled in this way.
Nevertheless, the ESA emphasizes that the impending crash of the ERS-2 satellite, which weighs over two tons, poses no danger.
Earth observation satellite ERS-2 is expected to fall to Earth and burn up
ERS-2, an Earth observation satellite launched into orbit in April 1995, has long been facing its inevitable crash.
When it was launched, it was considered the most advanced Earth observation spacecraft Europe had ever developed and launched, ESA said.
ERS-2 had a comprehensive view of land surfaces, oceans, polar ice caps and natural disasters, and provided key orbital data to experts on Earth.
Current crash forecast
Esa currently assumes that the ERS-2 satellite will fall to Earth
on February 19, 2024 at 11:26 p.m. (CET)
.
However, this date is very imprecise - it can shift by up to 38 hours in any direction.
(As of: February 12, 2024, 5:00 p.m.)
In 2011, it was decided to shut down the satellite and remove it from Earth's orbit so as not to leave space debris behind.
Since the satellite was at an altitude of 785 kilometers at the time, this was a lengthy process.
With the remaining fuel, the satellite's orbit was reduced to 573 kilometers to minimize the risk of collision with other spacecraft or space debris and to ensure that the satellite crashes to Earth within 15 years.
Esa satellite weighing two tons is said to crash
Now that time has come: ERS-2 is getting closer and closer to Earth.
The satellite is expected to crash to Earth around mid-February 2024 - in contrast to the “Aeolus” crash, without any control by ESA.
Once the satellite reaches an altitude of about 80 kilometers, physics will take over and the satellite will inevitably fall to Earth.
At the time of launch, ERS-2 weighed 2,516 kilograms, without fuel it now weighs around 2,294 kilograms, according to ESA estimates.
Nevertheless, the two-ton satellite poses no danger: the majority of the device is expected to burn up in the atmosphere.
Some fragments that could survive the torrid ride through Earth's atmosphere will most likely fall into the sea.
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“The annual risk of a single person being injured by space debris is less than 1 in 100 billion,” the ESA says on its website.
This risk is 65,000 times lower than the risk of being struck by lightning and three times lower than the risk of being struck by a meteorite. “The risk on the ground from re-entries is very small,” emphasized Tim Flohrer, head of the ESA Space Residue Department, in a media discussion on the “Aeolus” crash.
“To date, no one on the ground has been harmed.”
ESA cannot accurately predict satellite crash
The satellite is currently being constantly monitored.
Nevertheless, Esa cannot predict exactly when the crash will take place.
"Because re-entry is 'natural,' it is impossible to predict exactly when and where the satellite will begin to burn up," the space agency said.
“The window in which re-entry is possible will continue to shrink.”
It is difficult to calculate natural re-entries into the Earth's atmosphere because the density of the different layers of the Earth's atmosphere is not precisely known.
These layers are responsible for the “pulling” that brings the satellite closer and closer to Earth.
The closer they are, the faster a satellite sinks towards Earth.
Density is also influenced by solar activity.
In the case of “Aeolus,” solar activity accelerated the crash.
For a number of Starlink satellites, solar activity even caused brand new satellites to crash shortly after launch.
One thing is certain: ERS-2 will come down - gravity will take care of that.
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