As of: February 14, 2024, 7:06 p.m
By: Karsten Hinzmann
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A new ammunition factory and a state-of-the-art tank model: The war of the future remains classic in parts, but Germany is having a hard time with it.
Düsseldorf – The British have the tank on their hands.
The island kingdom was the first nation to send tanks to the front;
and would like to be the first nation to completely erase them from the history of armed conflicts in the future.
“The British army is planning a future without tanks” - when the
Neue Zürcher Zeitung
first reported this, Crimea had already been under Russia's control for six years.
Now Britain is running out of change, as well as personnel and with it the desire for tanks in general.
At that time, apart from the then Prime Minister Boris Johnson, no Western leader wanted to believe that a war between East and West that had long since cooled down had still left one ember: Vladimir Putin.
For Armin Papperger, this is an economic stroke of luck: “The main battle tank will experience a renaissance because the Europeans have to rely on alliance and national defense again, but their tanks are outdated,” said the managing director of the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall to the
Tagesspiegel
.
New location in the Lüneburg Heath
Rheinmetall wants to significantly expand its ammunition production.
A new factory for artillery ammunition is to be built at the existing location in Unterlüß (Celle district) in the Lüneburg Heath.
On Monday (February 12th), Chancellor Olaf Scholz, together with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (both SPD), company boss Armin Papperger and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, held the symbolic groundbreaking ceremony for the plant, which is to be completed in just twelve months of construction.
The defense company announced that production should start next year.
“We have helped ourselves and Ukraine so far by delivering a lot of what we have,” explained the Chancellor.
But this is becoming less and less possible.
“It is important that we do everything we can to increase production worldwide.” Rheinmetall’s new plant is an important signal here.
Source: German Press Agency
Since 2014, the Rheinmetall share price has shown massive price growth of an average of +21.1 percent annually, writes the magazine
börse
: According to their calculations, an investment of 10,000 euros would have increased to 67,981 euros.
However, the
stock market
is dampening overly high optimism: gambling with defense stocks is very risky.
And
Capital
also distrusts the idea of making a lot of money with tanks in the future.
Rheinmetall supplies ammunition, especially for Ukraine, and tanks, especially for the Bundeswehr.
“The group's growth drivers almost all come from fields that can be described as the 'old arms industry'.
But global demand is likely to shift more and more to the products of the 'new arms industry' in the next few years: drones - both in the air and at sea -, lasers, cyber technology, digitalization," writes
Capital
.
Rheinmetall plays its role in the concert of global players - but not first violin;
and company boss Papperger wants to launch his new product: the Panther KF51;
He is already on the hook for the first NATO partner: Hungary has commissioned the Düsseldorf-based company to “develop the Panther KF51 to the point where it is ready for series production,” as the company announced.
And he also wants to win over Germany as a cash cow, as he explains to the
Tagesspiegel
: “Russia's war of aggression in particular shows us that many, many more battle tanks of the latest generation are necessary.
“If Ukraine had had more of it at the beginning, before all the anti-tank barriers were put up, it would have had the opportunity to push through and potentially achieve further success.”
New situation report: Ukraine is putting the war in Europe back on the agenda
So there's a lot more to Leopard 2. “It's a good tank, no question about it, but it was designed in the 1970s.
The Panther has significantly greater combat power and reconnaissance and combat drones on board,” says Papperger.
Before the war in Ukraine, the British also saw a future of drones on the horizon, as the
Science and Politics Foundation
(
SWP)
points out.
“The defense of the insular kingdom itself and its overseas territories is London’s top priority.
This dual requirement requires, among other things, the availability of light forces that can be transported to the site by ship or aircraft.
“Military power can also be projected through long-range weapons, drones, aircraft and instruments in cyber and space,” she writes.
New flagship from the weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall: With the Panther KF51, the Düsseldorf-based company wants to equip Europe's land forces for the future.
© Julian Stratenschulte / dpa
As a result, Britain had lost focus on the defense of mainland Europe - something that could now be reversed, as the
SWP
also predicts.
According to them, the structure of future armies will be based on the global agenda;
and it is uncertain and therefore difficult to plan.
The only fact is that armies will shrink due to demographic change alone.
Many tanks will simply lack a lot of personnel.
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New wars: The tank will also retain its classic role against Russia
The tank will still have to tailor its new role - whereby the war will become more asymmetrical, but will also remain vital in its classic form, as Ralf Raths explains - the historian is director of the German Tank Museum in Munster: “The time of tank battles and operational breakthroughs are over.
But given the use of tanks in Ukraine or Syria, it quickly becomes clear that tanks are instead returning to their original role: they are increasingly being used in small numbers and in a tactical context: as battering rams in small battles, as anchor points for the infantry or as artillery deployment over long distances in direct fire,” he told the
world
.
Asymmetrical War – Friend and foe are difficult to separate
Wars are considered asymmetrical when the opponents perceive each other as so different that they no longer see each other as symmetrical mirror images, such as in a “state” against “state” war.
Examples of this are conflicts between a state and a terrorist network or an empire and a state.
Such asymmetrical constellations will determine war events in the 21st century.
Under conditions of great asymmetry, the clear boundaries that have characterized the symmetrical war of states in European history since the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 are eroding.
The boundaries between soldier and civilian, combatant and non-combatant (for example, soldiers who have surrendered), front and rear, military and police, foreign and domestic policy, war and peace are blurring.
In asymmetric wars there are no official declarations of war and no formal peace agreements.
Clear fronts, fixed territorial borders, uniforms with visible national insignia and binding rules of war are also losing importance.
Source: Campus Verlag
However, he still considers the tank to be useful in asymmetrical warfare: in his opinion, a single vehicle is often enough to control the terrain.
And what role tanks would have in a new war between India and Pakistan or a conflict between America and China is questionable anyway - in his opinion, that could suddenly turn out to be very classic again.
The Rheinmetall share price may serve as a blueprint for a changed public image of the Bundeswehr;
At least that's what the German military historian Sönke Neitzel sees: “Fighting, killing, dying - but all of this remained far away and rather theoretical for most German citizens.
“Many people in politics and the media have never honestly been interested in what soldiers think and experience,” he told
Deutschlandfunk
.
New self-image: Putin has strengthened the importance of the Bundeswehr again
Neitzel is an outspoken fan of Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD), at least since he introduced the term “war capability” into social discourse and thus made himself vulnerable.
“We see from the criticism from various sides – such as the CSU – how much avoiding honesty and ignoring truths has become part of our political culture,” says the only professor of military history in Germany in the ARD podcast “
Armed
Forces and strategies”.
In this respect, the upcoming restructuring of the Bundeswehr will partially realize what he has been calling for for years - including on the subject of tanks.
Pistorius is capable of shaking hands;
and his mindset is right, enthuses Armin Papperger in
the Tagesspiegel
: “When he says 'We'll do it', we believe it too - trust is crucial if you want to invest.
Of course he now has a higher budget, but the contracts have to be concluded first.
It would have previously taken the ministry ten years just to complete the contracts worth billions of euros that we concluded with the federal government last year.
This will be done in a few months today.
The Pistorius and Procurement Office team are doing a great job!”
The business boss feels the wind at his back - probably more so the longer the Ukraine war lasts or the stronger the position of a dictatorially ruled Russia becomes.
The Bundeswehr continues to rely on the Leopard, as the Federal Ministry of Defense announced last year: The army will receive 18 Leopard 2 A8 main battle tanks.
The latest version currently used in the Bundeswehr is the Leopard 2 A7V.
The more modern 2 A8 main battle tanks are scheduled to be delivered between 2025 and 2026.
The framework agreement with the manufacturer contains an option for the purchase of additional Leopard 2 A8 main battle tanks.
New model: The Panther is intended to make NATO capable of conflict again
In around ten years, Germany and France also want to have the tank of the future completed: The “Main Ground Combat System”, or MGCS for short, will then be used in the Bundeswehr as the Leopard 3 and in the French army as the Leclerc successor serve.
Until then, the Panther could step into the breach, as Papperger
told the
Handelsblatt : “Across Europe, around 1,000 of the 8,000 battle tanks will be replaced by 2030.
With our new Panther we want to deliver at least half, i.e. around 500 units, of the volume.” So far, the model has been offered to representatives from more than 20 nations.
Poland has already declined.
Geostrategically, they feel Putin's breath on their necks most clearly.
For around a year there have been reports about the pace and manner of Poland's rearmament.
Warsaw just ordered more than 360 partly used Abrams tanks from the USA and 1,000 South Korean K2 tanks (Black Panther) – the price makes the difference.
The
Neue Zürcher Zeitung
even sees Poland on the way to becoming the strongest army in Europe.
Poland wants to have achieved this by 2035.
What initially looks like a slap in the arm for the European arms industry could turn out to be a lucky coincidence in the long term:
Spiegel
author Gernot Kramper sees Germany under extreme pressure to act after the spontaneous advance of the Poles and calculates what large equipment Germany would have to provide in order to deal with Poland Efforts to reach an equal level: “The allies will also expect a comparable effort from Germany.
Based on twice the population and the greater economic power, there would be well over 2,000 battle tanks.”